Numbers that Matter: No. 6 Indiana at Rutgers

It’s one of football’s oldest truths: when the final whistle sounds, the scoreboard tells you who won, but the numbers often tell you why. A team may rack up more yards and still walk away with a loss, only for the turnover margin to reveal the difference. Another may control the ball, dominate time of possession, and quietly squeeze the life out of a comeback attempt. Whether it’s field position, third-down efficiency, explosive plays, or costly mistakes, the box score often uncovers the story beneath the result. In a game decided by inches, the numbers have a way of explaining what the eye test alone cannot.

Today, we’ll preview some numbers that could ultimately make or break Indiana’s first conference road game of the year versus Rutgers.

186

The Scarlet Knights enter this game at just 1-3 thus far, but that does not mean this is not a talented football team that can give Indiana fits. Looking at Rutgers on offense, the number one thing the Hoosiers defense must key in on is limiting wide receiver KJ Duff. Duff has seven touchdowns already this season, tied for first nationally by any pass catcher. He is the focal point of this offense; he has been targeted on 40.2% of the 243 plays he has run this season.

“KJ Duff is a premier receiver and their other receivers are developing,” said Curt Cignetti on Monday.

“He’s the hardest working player on our team, offense, defense, and kicking game,” added Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano during his Monday press conference. “And he’s the best player on our team. So when your hardest working player is your best player, that’s an easy one to point to [as the poster boy for the program].”

Indiana will have to focus on limiting his explosiveness after the catch. Of his 551 receiving yards this season, 186 have been yards after the catch, per Hudl IQ. Hudl IQ’s database has a “Player Similarity” tool as well, and his two strongest comparisons are Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Indiana’s Charlie Becker. How Indiana’s secondary responds to its second half performance last week and covers Duff will be an important factor to how this game ultimately turns out.

4.7%

While the Indiana defense has been overall solid this year, one thing I am hoping we see more of moving forward is creating enough havoc to force turnovers. Especially in road environments, forcing a turnover is a quick way to quiet the visiting crowd and take back momentum. Rutgers is expecting a sold-out, blackout, 56,000-person homecoming crowd. Managing that crowd early on is critical.

Indiana is currently 106th nationally in turnovers gained (3 interceptions, 0 fumbles). Just 4.7% of their defensive drives have resulted in turnovers, less than the league average of 9.4% per Hudl IQ. While the Hoosiers’ rush success and pass success rates are well above league average, converting some of those successful plays into turnovers could go a long way.

17

I know something that Curt Cignetti will be watching this week is how his team improves in terms of penalties. Eight of the Hoosiers season-long 17 penalties came last week against Northwestern. 

“First 25 plays there was 12 either penalties, critical missed assignments, or missed opportunities,” said Cignetti. “We should have gone in there at halftime with a four-score lead and went in 12-nothing.”

Those mistakes can more easily be overcome when playing at home. Mistakes like that are how games are lost on the road, however, so it is something that needs to be cleaned up. The Hoosiers are still 9th nationally in fewest penalty yards per game, but much of that relies on the success in the weaker nonconference schedule. 

Stay tuned all season long for Numbers that Matter, previewing the next week’s matchup!