Matchup To Watch: Rutgers’ 3rd Downs and Explosive Plays vs. Indiana’s Secondary

The reigning National Champion Indiana Hoosiers continue their title defense this Saturday against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the Hoosiers’ first away game of the 2026 season. The two teams could not be on more different paths. The Hoosiers, fresh off a national championship, are riding a 20-game win streak and – while there are areas to improve upon – have largely looked dominant. Rutgers, on the other hand, is fresh off of one of the biggest upsets in recent memory with their loss to UMass and has only managed one win thus far in 2026 (coincidentally, over the same FCS opponent Indiana played, as Rutgers beat Howard 58-7).

As things stand right now, Indiana has been given a 96% chance to win this game per ESPN analytics and the current spread is around 24 points in favor of Indiana. Rutgers needs to turn their season around quickly. While it’s very unlikely that it occurs this Saturday, the possibility still exists. If Rutgers indeed pulls out the win, it will likely be in a shootout where the Scarlet Knights score just enough to overcome the potent Indiana offense. The reason I say shootout is because Rutgers’ defense has not been great so far this season, but their offense has some bright spots. For example, the topic of this article – 3rd down success.

Rutgers does a good job of setting their offense up for success on 3rd down. They are 29th best in the nation in average distance to go on 3rd down with an average of 6.21 yards left to gain, per gameonpaper.com. Unfortunately, this hasn’t translated to the best 3rd down conversion rate (43.5%, which is middle of the pack in the country), but there is reason to hope for the Scarlet Knights. That hope lies in the land of explosive plays. Explosive plays are defined in a couple of different ways depending on where you look, but generally, they are defined as rushing plays that gain 12+ yards or passing plays that gain 15-20+ yards.

Explosive plays are, in large part, what Rutgers is best at – sort of by default. They have an elite running back in Antwan Raymond who gets the Scarlet Knights to that aforementioned 6.21 yards to gain figure on 3rd down and it opens up room for the explosive play. This will be a major area for Rutgers to capitalize upon should they wish to beat the Hoosiers this Saturday.

There has been significant discussion around the IU secondary along with some very real thoughts that this position group could represent a big drop off from last year’s group as huge shoes had to be filled year over year. If Indiana shows holes in coverage again, explosive plays from Rutgers could result quickly. Will Rutgers be able to string enough of these together to win this game though? That is the question, and the answer is that it’s very, very unlikely. If the Scarlet Knights do pull off the upset, however, it will very likely be due to Rutgers capitalizing on explosive plays after they set themselves up for success on 1st and 2nd down, like they’ve done all year. It will be up to Indiana’s secondary to stop this and prove to the nation that this is a secondary capable to repeat as National Champions.

As always, thanks for reading! Stay locked in with Hoosier Huddle for all things Indiana football – and Indiana sports in general – all season long. Go Hoosiers!