Numbers that Matter: No.5 Indiana vs. Northwestern

It’s one of football’s oldest truths: when the final whistle sounds, the scoreboard tells you who won, but the numbers often tell you why. A team may rack up more yards and still walk away with a loss, only for the turnover margin to reveal the difference. Another may control the ball, dominate time of possession, and quietly squeeze the life out of a comeback attempt. Whether it’s field position, third-down efficiency, explosive plays, or costly mistakes, the box score often uncovers the story beneath the result. In a game decided by inches, the numbers have a way of explaining what the eye test alone cannot.

Today, we’ll preview some numbers that could ultimately make or break Indiana’s first conference game of the year versus Northwestern.

Four Passes

Filling the shoes of Fernando Mendoza was never going to be easy, and early on, I’m sure Josh Hoover has felt a bit of that pressure. Though he has finished just three games in Curt Cignetti’s system, every move he has made has been under a microscope to evaluate if Cignetti has struck gold at the quarterback position again. Cignetti himself is tired of it.

“I think there is too much scrutiny on Josh Hoover right now,” said Cignetti during his weekly press conference on Monday. “Unfair scrutiny.”

The numbers would suggest this is probably true. Through three games, Hoover has thrown 51 passes. Hudl IQ has graded just four of those passes as having been under or over thrown (2 underthrows, 2 overthrows). He has also completed 72.5% of his passes, exactly in line with Mendoza’s first three games with the Hoosiers, having thrown one more touchdown pass on 25 fewer attempts. Hoover is doing an excellent job of throwing the ball to all areas of the field and pushing the ball down the field; he has thrown six passes greater than 30 yards down the field with just one incompletion. The other five have been completed for touchdowns.

“You know, I’m glad he’s our quarterback.”

-0.17

We’ve all heard the old saying, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Well, Indiana had a plan coming into the season on how they would replace D’Angelo Ponds at cornerback: a rotation of Jamari Sharpe and AJ Harris. This plan was quickly disrupted in game one, as both went down with injuries. Sharpe just returned last week and we have not yet seen Harris back in game action.

Enter Jalyen Bell and Ryland Gandy. Both have taken larger roles than were expected in the offseason, but so far, they have produced. Through three games, Bell has an EPA (Expected Points Added) per target of -0.17 over 92 defensive snaps per Hudl IQ. For comparison, D’Angelo Ponds finished last season with an EPA/target of -0.14.

“I thought Jaylen Bell has been pretty consistent,” said Curt Cignetti last week prior to this past weekend’s Western Kentucky game. “Thought he played well against North Texas. I have a lot of confidence in both [Gandy and Bell] of them.”

Aidan Chiles

It will be a familiar quarterback on the opposing sideline this weekend, though the team on his jersey will have changed. Indiana will be facing Aidan Chiles, the Michigan State transfer, for the third time in his career this Friday. Chiles has thrown two touchdown passes against the Hoosiers in those two previous starts, though both were to Nick Marsh, who now finds himself along the Indiana sideline. There is perhaps no better representation of college football today than those few sentences.

Either way, the Hoosiers will have their hands full. Chiles is a threat through the air and with his legs, which Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will certainly utilize. Chiles produced 7 chunk plays (defined as a 15+ yard pass play) through the air in the season opener against South Dakota State, per Hudl IQ.

“It’s a little different system than Michigan State, so they’re doing a really nice job,” said Cignetti. “He’ll drop back, play-action, out-of-pocket, multiple formations, personnel groupings, spread the ball in the pass game. Hadn’t thrown an interception yet all season long and can extend plays, tuck it and run, which we saw. I think he broke one for about 60 on us last year. He’s a really good player.”

Stay tuned all season long for Numbers that Matter, previewing the next week’s matchup!