Numbers that Matter: Indiana vs. Western Kentucky

It’s one of football’s oldest truths: when the final whistle sounds, the scoreboard tells you who won, but the numbers often tell you why. A team may rack up more yards and still walk away with a loss, only for the turnover margin to reveal the difference. Another may control the ball, dominate time of possession, and quietly squeeze the life out of a comeback attempt. Whether it’s field position, third-down efficiency, explosive plays, or costly mistakes, the box score often uncovers the story beneath the result. In a game decided by inches, the numbers have a way of explaining what the eye test alone cannot.

Today, we’ll preview some numbers that could ultimately make or break Indiana’s matchup against Western Kentucky.

278.50

After Indiana’s running backs had a solid with room for improvement type of performance in the opener against North Texas, I was certain Curt Cignetti would want to establish the run in week two against Howard. In fact, I wrote last week about how the Hoosiers run game efficiency stood out as an opportunity for improvement. It was better against Howard, and we could see an even bigger performance this weekend. Western Kentucky currently ranks 137th out of 138 FBS teams in rush yards allowed per game, allowing 278.50 yards per game, better than only Louisiana-Monroe.

“They’ve struggled obviously in their first two games,” said Curt Cignetti on Monday. “The goal is to continue to make ’em struggle defensively. Have given up some points. 280 yards rushing a game. It’s always about preparation for the opponent. It’s still this week more about us and tightening some things up, and in some ways we’re learning still about what we can do best before we go to Big Ten play.”

Through two games, Western Kentucky has allowed eight rushing touchdowns.

Possessions Per Game

Every football coach will tell you how important it is to effectively run the football, but is that importance growing? Data may suggest that to be the case. Brian Fremeau over at bcftoys.com has done a great deal of analytical research on college football, and he tweeted out an interesting trend in the game from 2007 to today. From 2007 through week two of this season in FBS vs FBS games, possessions per game have trended down from 27.4 to 23.9, steadily decreasing over the timeframe. Plays per game have followed a similar trend, dropping from 144.1 to 133.8 over the same timeframe.

There are a number of reasons why this could be the case: no-huddle offenses have lost popularity, the introduction of coach-to-player helmet communication, and even the emphasis of going for it on fourth down has limited the number of times the ball is turned over to the defensive team. No matter the ultimate reason, Cignetti and Shanahan have the right idea with putting an emphasis on running the football and keeping Indiana in possession of the ball, as possession becomes rarer.

Contested Catch Rate and Drop Rate

We knew coming into the season that there were few 1-2 punches at wide receiver in the country better than Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, but I’m not sure anyone could have predicted the success we’ve seen from Becker thus far. Through the first two games this season, Becker has seven catches, five of which he has converted to touchdowns. His five touchdowns are tied for best in the nation for an individual pass catcher.

Pro Football Focus also took a look at contested catch rate vs drop rate this week, and Becker nearly broke the graphic. In his career, Becker has a 78.9% contested catch rate and zero career drops. Both statistics are better than any 2027 NFL Draft WR prospect, including the likes of Jeremiah Smith, Cam Coleman, and Ryan Coleman-Williams.

“Hardest worker on the team,” said Cignetti in the postgame conference Saturday. “Prepares as well as anybody. Nobody prepares more. Goes hard every play. Goes hard in practice. He’s a really good special teams guy, too. It’s really important to him and he does everything he can to be the best explosive player.”

Stay tuned all season long for Numbers that Matter, previewing the next week’s matchup!