Numbers that Matter: No. 5 Indiana vs. Howard

It’s one of football’s oldest truths: when the final whistle sounds, the scoreboard tells you who won, but the numbers often tell you why. A team may rack up more yards and still walk away with a loss, only for the turnover margin to reveal the difference. Another may control the ball, dominate time of possession, and quietly squeeze the life out of a comeback attempt. Whether it’s field position, third-down efficiency, explosive plays, or costly mistakes, the box score often uncovers the story beneath the result. In a game decided by inches, the numbers have a way of explaining what the eye test alone cannot.

Today, we’ll preview some numbers that could ultimately make or break Indiana’s matchup against Howard.

14

With a tune-up matchup on the docket with Howard coming to town, much of this week’s numbers-that-matter preview will be focused on Indiana, rather than scouting the Bison on the other sideline. Howard should not be overlooked, but a historic upset would need to happen for Indiana to not walk away victorious from week two. Instead, they’ll need to focus on key areas before they advance to more difficult matchups that loom on the schedule.

One key area of focus will be improved tackling. While the Indiana offense, especially the passing offense, was humming for much of last week, the Hoosiers struggled a bit on defense. Ultimately, the Hoosiers missed 14 tackles, a concern I mentioned in last week’s numbers that matter with the shiftiness of the North Texas skill players and limited full-contact practice time in fall camp.

“Defense had a hard time getting off the field,” said Curt Cignetti on Monday. “And the opponent had the ball 37 minutes, a combination of some critical missed assignments, poor tackling. So gotta get better there.”

Fortunately, there are few guys I trust more than Bryant Haines to get this corrected. Tackling will be a key piece to monitor this weekend.

139

Curt Cignetti can thank his special teams unit for how often the defense was on the field in the heat last weekend, as the kick return game consistently set the Hoosiers offense up with short fields to attack. Through week zero and one of the college football season, only San Diego State averages more than the Hoosiers’ 139 kickoff return yards per game. 

“Made some big things happen on special teams,” added Cignetti in his opening remarks. “Opening kickoff return, another long return, a really good punt return.”

Time of possession is an important stat to pay attention to throughout the season, and with Indiana being a run-first offense, it’s a stat they want to lead in. However, with strong performances from special teams like we saw last week, it matters a bit less (and is a reason not to be concerned with North Texas nearly outgaining Indiana on offense). No coach is ever going to complain about time of possession if the kickoff return unit can consistently give the offense short fields to work with.

Run Game Efficiency

As you can see below, the Indiana offense’s Hudl IQ pinwheel from game one was successful in a lot of key areas. However, it does see a bit of a dip when looking at offensive success rate when running the football, a key area that makes the Indiana offense truly go. While Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. had solid debuts, there is more work to be done in terms of establishing the run on offense, as they finished the game having a rush success rate of just 40%, lower than you’d expect against a North Texas team.

“I think based on the way we were being played, I mean, it was fine. I mean, there were some little things up front that have got to be improved. But the call on Bray on the long touchdown run, you know, they called it. I thought the guy kind of tripped. So it is what it is. And we’ll be fine.”

As Cignetti called out, a bit of the dip can be attributed to how North Texas strategized slowing down the Indiana offense. With stacked boxes, it can be tough to truly establish a run game, but it is why we saw Josh Hoover have so much success through the air. This week, look for the rush game to improve, as the Indiana offensive line should overpower Howard’s defensive front.

Stay tuned all season long for Numbers that Matter, previewing the next week’s matchup!