By Matt St. Charles
About a month ago, Indiana had its destiny in its hand, sitting on the right side of the bubble at 17-8 overall and 8-6 in the Big Ten, with even a double-bye in the conference tournament still a possibility.
Then, the wheels fell completely off.
The Hoosiers lost five of their last six, highlighted by blowout losses at Illinois and Purdue, and a 72-68 loss at home to Northwestern, a true rock bottom. That stretch sunk them to 9-11 in league play, putting them as the 10th seed heading to Chicago, likely on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.
It was mostly understood that Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State would beat IU, and even then, it still would’ve had a resume good enough to get into the big dance. Ohio State was somewhat of a toss-up, with both teams sitting in similar positions in both NET and Wins Above Bubble at the time of their matchup, although now, the Buckeyes have created some distance in both rankings–seven sports above IU in NET and 12 above in WAB.
Minnesota and Northwestern were can’t-lose games that should have kept the Hoosier hopes alive, but the latter proved to be a back-breaking result that appeared to all but sink Indiana’s resume. Even more painful was the fact that IU had control of the game, but let Northwestern back into it to steal the win.
Despite the both the lackluster resume and the horrid close to the season–as the committee also accounts for teams packing at the right time–Indiana still finds itself in the middle of the bubble conversation. And a somewhat favorable draw, given all the circumstances, in the Big Ten bracket keeps its chances more than alive.
18-seed Penn State and 15-seed Northwestern will match up in the First Round on Tuesday, March 10 for the right to play Indiana in the Second Round. The Hoosiers pummeled the Nittany Lions back in December, carried by Lamar Wilkerson’s 44-point, 10 3-pointer outburst at Assembly Hall. Northwestern, as previously mentioned, beat IU in Bloomington a couple of weeks ago, but Indiana showed it should be able to beat a team like that.
So, for all intents and purpose, the Hoosiers should be moving on to the Third Round. If they don’t, you can call time of death on this group.
That win would match them up with 7-seed Purdue for a rivalry rubber match. The late January win over the Boilermakers is Indiana’s signature result of the season, and to repeat that would bolster its resume further.
To be even more optimistic, Purdue is cratering just as badly as Indiana, closing the regular season 2-4 with losses to Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin and a four-point win at Northwestern along with blowing the doors off Indiana 93-64. Balancing that score with IU’s win at home makes a neutral-site matchup anybody’s guess, but still an uphill battle for the Hoosiers.
Winning that third round game gives Indiana a puncher’s chance to get into the NCAA Tournament, but CBS Sports gives it a 31% chance to get selected by advancing to the quarterfinals.
Beating both Purdue and two-seed Nebraska, however, would more than likely make Selection Sunday a breeze, with CBS Sports projecting a 94% chance for Indiana to get in by reaching the semifinals. That’s quite the longshot for a team that’s been leaking oil over the last six games, but all three wins are needed to essentially ensure an at-large bid.