Examining The Series:
The Indiana baseball program has had, by every definition of the phrase, an up and down season. They just finished a disappointing opener to Big Ten play, losing a three game series to the Washington Huskies, which drops them to 13th overall in the Big Ten by full season record. This series result also drops the Hoosiers in both RPI ranking and ELO ranking. Courtesy of warrennolan.com, the Hoosiers now land at 141st in the country in RPI and 84th in the country by ELO.
Looking at the Hoosiers’ next matchup, the Wright State Raiders come to Bloomington for a one game series on Tuesday, 3/10 at 5:00 pm ET. The game will be broadcasted on B1G+ and will be available to listen at iuhoosiers.com. The Raiders enter the game with a record of 5-8, but have faced off against some of the best teams in the country. This, crazily enough, puts their RPI at a 20th in the country. Their ELO ranking, however – which is likely more telling of actual team talent – lands at 83rd in the country, just one spot above the Hoosiers.
Given the tight ranking of these two teams, this game becomes massively important to turn the tide, gain confidence, and show the ‘middle of the pack’ that you don’t belong there and instead belong with the better teams in the country. While it’s just one game, these games factor in immensely come season’s end when the NCAA tournament selection committee is making their picks for the tournament.
Indiana Stats and Figures:
We shared above that the Hoosiers, by overall record, ranked 13th overall in the Big Ten (out of 17 total teams). When looking deeper into the statistics, Indiana also falls into the bottom half of the Big Ten.
Team OPS: The Hoosiers rank 15th in the Big Ten when it comes to team OPS, with an OPS of .740. Entering the season, we knew this could be an issue. The Hoosiers lost two key contributors in Devin Taylor and Korbyn Dickerson to MLB this offseason and have so far struggled to replace their production. Head Coach Jeff Mercer wants to work long counts and draw walks, which is great, but if the team doesn’t have enough power to drive those baserunners in, this philosophy will only result in (a) pitchers throwing more strikes since the risk/reward is more in the pitcher’s favor and (b) runners consistently being left on base. The Hoosiers need more power if they hope to turn this season around.
Team ERA: The Hoosiers rank 14th in the Big Ten when it comes to team ERA, with an ERA of 6.17. This is likely driven by a lack of command from pitchers. The Hoosiers rank second to last in the Big Ten in strikeout to walk ratio. They strike out 8.3 batters per game while walking roughly 5.6 batters per game. This translates to a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.48, which leads to the aforementioned 2nd lowest total in the Big Ten. Despite the lower ranking in team-wide pitching totals, the Hoosiers have had a major bright spot thus far in their rotation and bullpen. Graduate transfer Tony Neubeck leads the starters with a 1.96 ERA across four starts and over 18 innings pitched. Additionally, graduate student Gavin Seebold has been stellar out of the bullpen, posting a 0.00 ERA across over 13 innings pitched. If the Hoosiers wish to compete in the NCAA tournament postseason, they will need more outings across their staff and bullpen like Neubeck and Seebold have provided thus far.
Prediction and Next Series:
This is a very even matchup at the end of the day, but I believe the Hoosiers will be looking to prove a point. I have them winning by a score of 6-2, getting them on track ahead of a huge weekend series against the Oregon Ducks. I believe that if the Hoosiers can win 3 out of their next 4 games, it will be the recipe needed to hopefully turn things around.
Stay locked in with Hoosier Huddle for recaps of IU baseball games and series along with previews examining each one ahead of time. Go Hoosiers!