Written by: TJ Inman
What: Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes
Where: Value City Arena in Columbus, OH
When: Saturday, March 7 at 5:30
How to Watch: FOX
Opponent Glance: The Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers have extremely similar profiles with both teams struggling in Quad One games (OSU is 2-10) but avoiding bad losses and mostly taking care of business in games they are favored in. It’s fair to say that Jake Diebler’s crew has stepped up in the past couple of weeks and are playing their best ball, likely saving Diebler’s job. After losing a disappointing close game on a neutral field to Virginia, Ohio State beat Wisconsin by 17, narrowly lost at Michigan State, got drilled at Iowa and now have won back-to-back games over Purdue and Penn State. Ohio State is a four-point favorite according to Bart Torvik’s metrics.
The Buckeyes lean heavily on their starting five and get next to nothing from their bench. The frontcourt of Christoph Tilly and Amare Bynum is fine but Ohio State is not a good rebounding team and they are not a team that will strive to punish the Hoosiers in the paint. Forward Devin Royal will attack the glass and could hurt Indiana down low but the big concern is the backcourt duo of Bruce Thornton and John Mobley Jr. Thornton, a senior, will be playing in his final home game in Columbus and he’s the rare player that will have played all four seasons at one place.
Saturday’s game is a chance to solidify his first trip to the NCAA Tournament and there’s no doubt he’ll be keyed in to have a great performance. John Mobley Jr. is more of an off-ball guard that is constantly moving on offense and looking to get himself open for three-point looks. Thornton is more of a bulldog that will attack the basket and try to get fouled. How does IU try to guard the Buckeyes? Conor Enright will almost certainly matchup with Mobley and that will leave Thornton for Lamar Wilkerson.
It would be great if Tayton Conerway was still engaged and able to give good minutes but he hasn’t looked remotely interested in the past few weeks so that cannot be relied upon. Nick Dorn would need to take freshman Amare Bynum, Tucker DeVries would battle with Devin Royal and Sam Alexis would tussle with Christoph Tilly. Both teams would be extremely worried about foul trouble for their star guards and that will be a constant issue to monitor.
Why It Matters: An emphatic win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers keeps IU’s NCAA Tournament hopes alive heading into this regular season finale but they likely need two more wins to punch their ticket. Ohio State is certainly ahead of the Hoosiers but they are not a “lock” to make the Big Dance, but a victory over fellow bubble team IU would almost certainly be enough.
A fairly simple way to look at the bubble picture is that there are probably five spots available for bubble teams and the realistic candidates are: Indiana, Ohio State, SMU, Santa Clara, VCU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, California, Cincinnati and New Mexico. As uninspiring as Indiana’s Quad One record is right now, the Hoosiers’ resume has to be compared to the other bubble teams and it really seems like a victory in Columbus with a win on Wednesday over someone like Rutgers or Penn State would be enough to make the NCAA Tournament.
Alternatively, a competitive loss to Ohio State but then winning on Wednesday in Chicago and then beating UCLA on Thursday could accomplish the same goal of giving IU an additional Q1 victory and punching their ticket. The path is narrow but the season is not without hope just yet.