Written by: TJ Inman
What: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Where: Assembly Hall in Bloomington, IN
When: Tuesday, February 24 at 7:00
How to Watch: FS1
Opponent Glance: The Northwestern Wildcats have had a frustrating and mostly disappointing season under Chris Collins and enter this game at just 11-16 and just 3-13 in the Big Ten. The lone conference wins for the Wildcats came against Maryland (February 18), Penn State (January 29) and USC (January 21). Northwestern has been mostly competitive in their losses so their metrics are still respectable and they sit 65th in Torvik, 70th in KenPom and 65th in the NET. The 65th ranking means this is a Q3 opportunity at home for the Indiana Hoosiers and to be blunt, a contest IU simply cannot lose.
As expected, Nick Martinelli has been the best player for the Purple and White, posting a 5.15 BPR and excelling as, by far, Northwestern’s best offensive player. The senior is averaging 22.3 points per game, 6.2 rebound per game and is currently accomplishing the rare feat of shooting 50%+ from the field, 80%+ from the foul line and 40%+ from three (43.5%). Arrinten Page (10.4) and Jayden Reid (10.1) are the only two players averaging double-figures.
Reid is the distributor and he’s the rare Big Ten point guard that Conor Enright will have a size advantage over. In fact, this could be a really good matchup for Tayton Conerway to assert himself by relentlessly attacking the basket against the smaller Reid. The Wildcats don’t turn the ball over much at all (4th in turnover percentage) but they do not excel at two areas that have really hurt Indiana: offensive rebounding (292nd) and free throw rate (186th).
Why It Matters: The Indiana Hoosiers are squarely on the bubble and anything short of a 3-1 record in the final four games will send IU to the Big Ten Tournament with work left to be done.
Thankfully for Darian DeVries’ first team in Bloomington, the Hoosiers have three-straight games at Assembly Hall and they’ll have the opportunity to play themselves off the bubble (on the good side, or the bad side) on their home floor. Northwestern is the first box that needs checked.
While a win over the Wildcats won’t add much to the tournament resume, a loss would be catastrophic and would be Indiana’s first Quad Three defeat this season. As of now, Sunday’s game against Michigan State and the regular season finale at Ohio State are Quad One games while March 4th’s game against Minnesota is currently a Quad Two contest.