Cream & Crimson Computations: Rebounding Struggles, Rising to the Occasion, and Jasai Miles Defense

Nov 29, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Jasai Miles (0) dribbles the ball against Bethune-Cookman Wildcats guard Dailon Minor (12) during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images College basketball season is heating up - Selection Sunday is officially under four weeks away - but we find ourselves in a bit of a slow period in the schedule for the Hoosiers right now. After three games in six days, we now play just two in an 11-day stretch. The first, as we now know, did not go swimmingly; while the effort was there in the first half, Illinois pulled away relatively easily in the second to win 71-51. Next up is another showdown with Purdue on Friday. Let’s take another look at some updated metrics before the rivalry game. Offensive Rebounding There were plenty of things that ultimately led to the Hoosiers noncompetitive showing in Champaign, but the main reason has to be the disparity in offensive rebounding. It was always going to be a tall task, quite literally; Illinois is the tallest team in the nation and was coming off of two straight losses in which they had slipped in terms of their rebounding dominance. But with defensive rebounding relatively even (21-23 in favor of Illinois), the offensive rebounding is where the game changed. The Illini outrebounded the Hoosiers 15-4 on that end of the floor. Add in the advantage on the turnover front (9-2 in favor of Illinois) and you find that Illinois finished with 17 additional shot attempts and a 17-5 advantage in second chance points. Even when they weren’t necessarily hitting from behind the arc (23%), the additional possessions allowed a comfortable 20-point victory. “(Offensive rebounds) had a huge impact on the game," Coach Darian DeVries said to Don Fischer after the game. “"Even more than that, it was having to guard another possession. It didn't allow us to play in transition against a broken floor. (Illinois) didn't get a ton of clean looks, but they shot 31 3-pointers, and that led to long rebounds. We weren't able to corral enough of them.” Rising to the Occasion The struggles we saw when Indiana had to “play up a level” with one of the top teams in college basketball got me thinking about one of Evan Miyakawa’s metrics. Miyakawa’s “Opponent Adjust” metric is a way to put a number to how well teams play when they are playing a team deemed above average vs when they are playing a team deemed below average. Some teams play very well when playing tougher teams, but may struggle to blow out inferior teams. Some are the opposite - they can overpower inferior teams but struggle to compete when the competition level rises. Per the graphic below, it is clear Indiana finds themselves in the latter category. While teams like Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin rise to the big game occasion, this Indiana team definitely cowers a bit to teams that can out-talent them. Despite the relative ranking of 37th nationally, Indiana is in the bottom four in the Big Ten when the competition ramps up. This is a clear example of the data fitting exactly what we have seen with this team. While the metrics overall look solid which raise the floor, it has been pretty obvious for most of the year that this team has a pretty clear ceiling. The tricky part will come down to later in this season if Indiana’s tournament hopes are on the line and an above average team is in front of them - they will need to flip the script to secure a tournament berth in DeVries’ first year. Jasai Miles With Tayton Conerway back on the floor but still playing like his injury is nagging him a bit, Nick Dorn’s recent struggles from behind the arc, and a bit of a lack of trust it seems from the coaching staff when it comes to Trent Sisley, I wanted to give a shoutout to Jasai Miles recent increase in minutes. From November 16th’s Incarnate Word game through January 20th’s Michigan game (9 games total), Miles saw just 42 minutes of playing time. In the seven games since, he has seen 88 minutes on the floor, including 25 in the overtime victory over Wisconsin. While he is still finding his footing offensively, Miles has found a role in effort on the defensive end of the floor. Filtering to players who have seen the floor in at least 200 defensive possessions, Miles has become Indiana’s most valuable defender (103.0 rating) per Evan Miya’s adjusted team defensive efficiency. This tracks how many points a team allows per 100 possessions with the player on the court and even adjusts for strength of opponent players faced. With Indiana claiming an identity in their defense fueling their transition offense, Miles has proven himself as a valuable piece. Stay tuned each week as I’ll continue to compile intriguing statistics from the Indiana men’s basketball season. Follow along to all coverage on Hoosier Huddle.

Cream & Crimson Computations: Rebounding Struggles, Rising to the Occasion, and Jasai Miles Defense

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