Written by: TJ Inman
What: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Oregon Ducks
Where: Assembly Hall in Bloomington, IN
When: Monday, February 9 at 8:30 pm
How to Watch: FS1
Opponent Glance: The Oregon Ducks began the season 4-0 and got a win over rival Oregon State but things fell apart near the end of November as they dropped five straight contests, each by double-digits. The Ducks got a win over Maryland to begin 2026 but they have not won a game since, falling in nine straight games including eight straight losses by ten points or more. They are now 1-11 in Big Ten play but the majority of the losing has come without stars Nate Bittle and Jackson Shelstad. The bad news for IU is that big man Nate Bittle, one of the best centers in the Big Ten, returned to action this past weekend against Purdue and Oregon led in West Lafayette with under a minute to play and nearly pulled off the huge upset with him back on the court.
The lesson for the Hoosiers? Nate Bittle being back gives IU a much stiffer test than the metrics suggest. Bittle and 6’10” forward Kwame Evans Jr. provide the Ducks with a big frontcourt and the duo are both well above-average as rebounders. Nate Bittle’s absence (five games) certainly has not helped and Jackson Shelstad only played 12 games this season before being ruled out for the remainder of the campaign. In 16 appearances this season, Bittle has 35 blocks and is averaging 16.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Kwame Evans is talented but has always left a bit to be desired in intensity and consistency. He’s averaging 13.1 points and 7.1 rebounds with 26 blocks.
That interior size is going to be a major issue for the Hoosiers but Indiana should have a big advantage on the perimeter. Takai Simpkins is Oregon’s best guard but he has a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio and the rest of the Ducks’ guards have failed to come close to filling Shelstad’s shoes. Nick Dorn has had two poor games in a row and Tayton Conerway has not been himself since injuring his ankle against Iowa. This would be a very nice team for one (or both) of them to get back to boosting the offense and aiding the red-hot Lamar Wilkerson.
Why It Matters: The Indiana Hoosiers are currently safely projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Heading into this game, IU is 7-6 in Big Ten play and likely to be slotted as a 9-seed. Of course, the bracket is not determined today and the Hoosiers need to keep on winning. A win over Oregon doesn’t really help Indiana much given the Ducks struggles. Tonight’s game is really all about avoiding a bad loss. Minnesota is currently a Quad Two loss but that the only IU blemish outside of Q1 (currently 4-8 in Q1 and Q2 combined).
Oregon is 84th in the NET and that makes this a Quad Three game. Avoiding a loss is paramount and beating Oregon somewhat comfortably would continue to help IU’s strong metrics. With road games at Illinois and Purdue on the horizon, IU projects to be 8-8 heading into the home stretch of Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota at home and then the finale of Ohio State on the road.
A record of 3-4 down the stretch would leave IU 10-10 in the Big Ten and squarely on the bubble. Anything better than that would very likely slide the Hoosiers safely into the field on Selection Sunday. Beating Oregon firmly falls into the “taking care of business” category for the home team.
Result: IU 92-74 Win
Game #2
What: Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Where: State Farm Center in Champaign, IL
When: Sunday, February 15 at 1:00 pm
How to Watch: FOX
Opponent Glance: Entering the season, there were four games on Indiana’s schedule that seemed to be contests you could write “L” down in ink: at Michigan, at Michigan State, at Illinois and at Purdue. Indiana was competitive for 30 minutes in East Lansing but were ultimately blown out at both Michigan schools and the second half of that quartet of tough games commences this weekend as IU plays at Illinois on Sunday followed by a trip to West Lafayette. Illinois fell in overtime to Michigan State but they are still one of the hottest teams in college basketball and have the nation’s best offense.
The Fighting Illini have five players averaging double-figures: Tomislav Ivisic, David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic, Kylan Boswell and Keaton Wagler. Wagler is a stunning story, coming in as a fairly unheralded freshman and rising to the top ten of NBA mock drafts and averaging 17.8 points per game while shooting 43.3 percent from three. Besides Wagler, this is a veteran group loaded with transfers and international players that have played professionally in Europe. It will be very interesting to see how IU approaches defending Wagler. He has good length and would be a tough assignment for Conor Enright and if guard Kylan Boswell is able to return from his broken hand (Brad Underwood said he could be cleared on Thursday or Friday so in theory, he could play a role against IU), Enright might take Boswell. Darian DeVries’ gameplan for defending the freshman flamethrower will be something to watch.
At home, the Illini have wins over Texas Tech (81-77) and a recent demolition of Northwestern (84-44) but they also have a loss to Nebraska and have not played or beaten much of the Big Ten’s better teams in Champaign (no Purdue, no Michigan, no Michigan State). The Illini added a home defeat to Wisconsin on Tuesday night, boosting IU’s win over the Badgers. Illinois is strong on defense but the Illini truly excel on offense and this is a game the Illini are expected to win by double-digits. They have size that will be difficult for Indiana to contend with and are explosive. Given IU’s recent performances on the road against high-level opposition, this one could get ugly.
Why it Matters: This game represents an opportunity for the Indiana Hoosiers to pick up a third Quad One victory and go a very long way towards ensuring a trip to the NCAA Tournament in Darian DeVries’ first season. A loss at Illinois does not hurt IU’s resume at all but it would add another defeat to the Q1 column for the Hoosiers.