What: Indiana Hoosiers at USC Trojans
Where: Galen Center in Los Angeles, CA
When: Tuesday, February 3 at 10:00 pm
How to Watch: Peacock
Opponent Glance: The USC Trojans enter this contest at 16-6 and 5-6 in the Big Ten. With the calendar turned to February, USC is firmly on the bubble. They began the campaign looking like potential Big Ten contenders but star guard Rodney Rice was lost for the season after only six games due to a shoulder injury that requires surgery. At the time, the former Maryland player was averaging better than 20 points per game. They now lean on Chad Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar. Baker-Mazara, an Auburn transfer, is shooting 37 percent from three and averaging 18.8 points per game. Ausar, a 6’9” Utah transfer, is currently leading the nation in free throw attempts and putting up 16.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. 6’10” sophomore Jacob Cofie leads the Trojans with more than seven rebounds per contest. USC has been involved in a large number of very close games. Of their 22 games, 13 of them have been decided by eight points or less.
Their record in those games is 9-4 including recent close wins over Rutgers, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota. USC is 50th in KenPom and they are now #49 in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank. USC is a solid defensive team, ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They do a couple of things that could be problematic for the Indiana Hoosiers: defend the three well (16th in opponent three-point efficiency) and get to the foul line on offense (2nd in free throw rate). As previously mentioned, Ezra Ausar leads the country in free throw attempts and they are shooting nearly 20 foul shots per game as a team. The Trojans are currently projected as a 10-seed in most NCAA Tournament projections and are listed with roughly a 40 percent chance to make the Big Dance.
Game #2
What: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Where: Assembly Hall in Bloomington, IN
When: Saturday, February 7 at Noon
How to Watch: FOX
Opponent Glance: Seeing the name “Wisconsin” on the basketball schedule sends cold shivers down the spine of IU fans but this version of Badger basketball is much different than the nightmarish images of losing 60-50 in plodding contests over and over again against Bo Ryan or Greg Gard led teams. Wisconsin is 35th in offensive efficiency and they are playing at a very quick pace (63rd in adjusted tempo) and capable of putting up 90+ points on even solid defenses.
The Badgers are currently projected in the NCAA Tournament field but they are now entering a very difficult portion of their schedule with five-straight projected Q1 games. Wisconsin gets a full week off after knocking off Ohio State 92-82 in Madison before playing at IU, at Illinois, vs. Michigan State, at Ohio State and against Iowa. Center Nolan Winter and guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell lead the charge for Wisconsin’s attack. Winter, a 7-footer that will be a real challenge for IU’s lack of size, is shooting 57.8% from the field and averaging 13.8 points per game plus 8.7 rebounds. Nick Boyd leads the way with 20 points per game while John Blackwell is averaging 18.5 and hitting 37.5% from three.
Why it Matters: Lamar Wilkerson lit up the USC Trojans but his cohorts, mainly Tucker DeVries and Nick Dorn, struggled mightily and a late comeback attempt fell short in Los Angeles. The Hoosiers return to Bloomington with an acceptable split from the West Coast swing and they are now 2-8 in Quad One games with a record of 15-8 and 6-6 in the Big Ten. Darian DeVries’ squad now faces a critical two-game homestand with a Quad Two game against Wisconsin (36th in NET) up first and a Monday night clash against Oregon as a Quad Three game (89th NET). An extremely difficult road trip with games at Illinois and Purdue follows and increase the urgency to grab these two wins at home. IU is currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament as they have no losses outside of Quad One (Minnesota squeaked into Quad One territory with their win against Michigan State) and a pair of good wins over Purdue and UCLA combined with quality predictive metrics (26th in Torvik and 35th in KenPom). Based on those numbers, a Big Ten record of 11-9 should lock IU into the NCAA Tournament field and the Hoosiers would probably have a pretty decent seed. Going 10-10 in the league probably is enough but the door would be open to be sent to Dayton or get knocked out by bid thieves during Championship Week. A path to 10 or 11 wins means taking care of home court and that starts with beating the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday at noon.