The Reactionary Take: IUFB, National Champions

Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) lifts the trophy after the College Football Playoff National Championship game against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images I was up until 2AM just trying to come down off the thrilling 27-21 Indiana victory in the CFP National Championship Game trying to think about how to write about this run. How do you sum *this* up? Was this even real? It felt like that scene from The Matrix when Morpheus tells Neo, "You've been living in a dream world" and yet it isn't a dream world. As my 3 year old climbed into bed with my wife and I around 130AM after waking up himself, I got emotional while still scrolling on my phone and him cuddled up next to me. I had been stunned or numb and having an out of body experience after the Jamari Sharpe INT sealed the game for IU. But I got emotional because I got to share a lot of these games with my son. He loves playing "tackle" and being Roman Hemby or Omar Cooper with me being "The OSU" (this is a game where he gets the ball and tries to run me over on our big couch and dive into the end zone/pillows). He was even yelling at the TV with me at points in these playoffs (very on brand for a Jordan, regardless of age, it seems). This win reminded me of a moment I got to have with *my dad* my sophomore year at IU in my apartment. Since IU has gone on this run with Curt Cignetti and my dad has been battling skin cancer off and on for the past 10 or so years, I kept thinking back to this moment we had in Bloomington at the Gentry Building: We got to watch the Boston Red Sox vanquish the New York Yankees together (and eventually win a title). That was as seminal a moment in my sports fandom as this win by IU. It's the only comparable thing. I'd been a Red Sox fan my entire 19 years (at that point) and gone to an incalculable amount games...but they just could never finish...and then they did. And I've now been an IU fan for just a little bit longer and got to witness them win an improbable title with *my son*. A full circle moment for me and my family and I'm so proud of how this team represents the school and the fans. A *team* in every sense of the word, from the head coach, to the players, to the trainers to the support staff, on down. A group that does it the right way. There will never be another 2025 Indiana in college football. I'm also so happy for the long time fans...and the new ones! Welcome aboard a train that's just getting started and adding engines and cars. All are welcome because we...ain't...done...yet! via Yahoo! IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 31-20 Final Score: IU 27-21 — Miami COVERS +7.5 / OVER 46.5 Season Betting Record: 17-13 A brutal loss on both the O/U and the spread brings me to a respectable 17-13 on the year. When I bet it, the O/U was 48.5 an dropped to 46.5...So, I lost but the bet actually won had I placed it closer to game time. Dumb Vegas. However, I was plus a decent amount of units this year even though many of these lines would have been stay aways for me after looking at the numbers and the betting trends. But who really cares...IU won the National Championship. As for the numbers, per ESPN's Bill Connelly, creator of SP+, IU won said National Championship with just an post game win expectancy of just 14% (PGWE is essentially a bunch of simulations played over with the same stats)! I knew IU would be under 50% but 14% is crazy. Especially wen you consider IU had 20 1st downs to Miami's 15, was 6/16 on 3rd down compared to Miami's 3/11, out gained Miami on the ground 131 to 110 and finished with a whopping 36:24 to 23:36 in time of possession. Had you told me that pregame, I think IU wins this game by 2+ scores. But I felt watching like IU almost tried to do the same playbook they did in the Penn State game. IU got up 10-0 at half and was playing suffocating defense while using the quick passing game and power run game to negate the tough pass rushers. And then Miami DC Cory Heatherman decided he wasn't going to give IU anything short and it messed IU's RPO game up, that had been working so well in the first half. IU had lost a ton of momentum. Miami looked like the stronger team and IU's defensive line injuries finally seemed to be taking a toll as RB Mark Fletcher and Miami's big OL began to lean on IU's front. But IU did what IU does...They played complimentary football like they had all year. After a monster 55 yard punt by Mitch McCarthy was fielded by all everything WR Malachi Toney at the 3 yard line and brought back to the 7, IU forced a three and out. And then DE Mikail Kamara blocked a late third quarter punt that was recovered by Isaiah Jones in the end zone. It's the little things that this team does well. Why are elite players playing on special teams? Because those players can change a game. IU had two blocked punts in the CFP, one from Kamara and the other from a now rotational starter Daniel Ndukwe. All season IU had answers when they were punched in the mouth. Games at Oregon, Penn State and Iowa gave this team the confidence it needed to believe they could finish off a really good Miami team. And this one was no differnent despite the advanced numbers not looking great for IU. via GameOnPaper.com But a couple of those explosive plays came late when Miami was in catch up mode and IU was trying to hang on. Elite RB Mark Fletcher finished with 17 for 112 yards and 2 TD's...but 57 of that came on one rush where Amare Ferrell took a bad angle and Fletcher busted through the arm tackle. Fletcher was held to 3.4 ypc outside of that rush. WR Malachi Toney was held in check in the first half but exploded in the second half with an insane 41 yard catch and run and then capped off that 4th quarter drive with a 22 yard catch and run for a TD. He finished with 10 catches for 122 yards (12.2 ypc). Again, these were the two guys IU had to stop...And for the most part, IU did. Toney had just 3 catches in the first half and Fletcher, outside of his big run, was bottled up for the most part. Miami turned into the team everyone thought they could be preseason. A national championship level team with stars all over the field and a game manager in Carson Beck at QB. In the end, having a game manager who struggled so badly against zone coverage and pressure like Carson Beck was Miami's undoing. His misread on a deep ball that was picked off by Miami native and often forgotten about starter at CB opposite All American D'Angelo Ponds, Jamari Sharpe who sealed the game and National Championship for IU despite that 14% post game win expectancy. What a win...what a team...what a ride! Before I get to talking individual superlatives, I have to address the officiating. That was one of the most atrociously officiated games I've ever watched. Listen, I get they're going to swallow the whistle a lot and I'm typically for that in a game of this magnitude, but that is when it's a 50/50 call or no call...What Miami was doing were blatant, important, game changing penalties that were going uncalled. Kiante Scott blatant targeting on Mendoza that left him bloody Blatant hold/grab on Omar Cooper's neck who probably has a long TD A couple blatant holds on Mark Fletcher runs - a similar blatant hold was called on Kahlil Benson early in the game on a Mendoza scramble and then not on the Fletcher runs A pretty questionable late hit out of bounds on Omar Cooper, where, if it were a regular season game, is 100% getting called as he was clearly on the chalk I hate doing this in a win but the officiated made this game much closer than it should have been. Fernando Mendoza There are not words to describe the moxie that he plays with. Mendoza finished his Indiana career going 16/27 (59%) for 187 (6.9 ypa) to go along with 5 carries for 14 yards (2.8 ypc) and a TD (sack adjusted). Not his best day if you're looking at it statistically, but that's why you have to watch the games. via Pro Football Focus The play call by Curt Cignetti and Mike Shanahan to run a QB draw on 4th and 5 and the gumption of Mendoza to make the right read and bounce off would be tacklers. He added 2 missed tackles forced for good measure, both on the play of his career. I will be getting that picture hung in my office. The numbers could have been better. PFF had him for his lowest passing grade (71.6) since Purdue and they credited him with zero big time throws. They don't count the back shoulder dimes he was laying out there for his guys and he might have had one had Omar Cooper not been grabbed. And despite the start from Miami DE's Ahkeem Mesidor and Ruben Bain, Miami ended up with pressure on just 11 of his 32 drop backs (34%). The OL did a pretty good job overall despite All American Carter Smith giving up his first sacks of the season and adding 50% to his pressure total (3). Mendoza was 0/4 on 20+ yard passes and that was because IU realized that they couldn't let things develop because of how good that pass rush tandem was. On the season, in 16 games, Mendoza finished with 3536 yards on 72% completion rate for 41 TD's to just 6 INT's. PFF had him for 23 big time throw and just 12 turnover worthy plays. And this kid pushes the ball down the field...this isn't a dink and dunk offense. His aDOT (average depth of target) of 9.8 and a 9.3 yards per attempt which was 4th in college football. He also never lost a fumble in 16 games. There was no better player in college football than Mendoza. He earned that Heisman Trophy and showed everyone who was a doubter in this playoff why he will be the number one overall pick in the NFL draft to the Raiders. He has "it". He has the physical tools, the smarts, the work ethic, the processing but it's something that is unteachable that he also has that is endearing to fans and teammates: he goes to battle and as he's said over and over, he will die on that field for his guys and they'll do the same for him. That's the "it" that is unteachable. He leads by example and it won Indiana a national title. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black When Lee Beebe went down, I was very nervous that IU was going to have to turn to redshirt freshman Khobie Martin as the third back...and they did, to an extent, but he was mostly in there for garbage time in relief of Hemby and Black. Martin and Beebe will be back and both have bright futures at IU but this season was the Hemby and Black show. Those backs both ended up with over 1000 yards rushing (Hemby 1120 / Black 1040) for the first time since 2015 when Jordan Howard and Devine Redding did it. Granted, Hemby and Black had 16 games and Howard (9 games because of injury but avg 135 ypg!) and Redding (13 games) but with the amount of garbage time IU had this year, IU had 6 players rush for 190 yards or more on the season. In this one? Black: 17 carries for 79 yards (4.6 ypc) Hemby: 19 carries for 60 yards (3.2 ypc), 2 catches for 5 yards (2.5 ypc) The tenacity in which they ran was the reason IU was able to shorten the game, eat up time of possession and keep their already stretch DL off the field. When the story of this game is told, it cannot go unnoticed how these two kept IU moving down the field. D'Angelo Ponds and Jamari Sharpe These two were nails in this game. If you're a college football fan, you've heard of D'Angelo Ponds by now. But if you've read me before, I'm just as big of a fan of Jamari Sharpe. Sharpe isn't the tactician that Ponds is. He doesn't have the agility that Ponds does. But he's the perfect compliment on the field side to how Ponds plays on the boundary side. Ponds is an NFL corner and not many do. What Sharpe does have is s sturdy 6'1 frame, track speed and good ball tracking skills. When he's done after next year at IU, he'll likely have a spot in the NFL himself. It was only fitting that after Ponds had 3 passes defended and an 84 coverage grade by PFF, on the game sealing play, Carson Beck tried to go to the other side...Sharpe's side. And what happened? Jamari Sharpe called game, picking off Beck on a pass he baited knowing he had safety help over the top. Sharpe also finished with 84 coverage grade. Sharpe and Ponds combined to play 105 of the 108 snaps in the game (97%) and were targeted 10 times by Beck and Miami. Those 10 targets came with just 3 catches (30%) for 31 yards and just 5 yards after catch. I'm going to miss Ponds but I'm very happy to be able to pencil in Jamari Sharpe as a starter in '26. Curt Cignetti The friggin' stones on that guy. The statue is going to be amazing. I thought he almost fell into the Penn State trap of getting up by a couple scores and then trying to salt the game away against a super athletic and elite defense. And then he started doing the opposite. The man called two 4th down plays (going 2/2) and both were absolutely massive. The back shoulder throw to Charlie Becker on the sideline and the 12 yard run by Mendoza will go down, to me, as two of the greatest and most ballsy calls I've ever seen. I love that man and to think where he took IU from and to in just two years is the greatest coaching job in sports history. Not only that, the amount of money he's bringing to the University, the City and the football program is going to forever change Indiana Athletics. IUFB Quick Hits IU's WR's forced 5 missed tackles. Omar Cooper forced 3 missed tackles by himself to push his total to 27 (4th nationally)...one behind incoming IU transfer Nick Marsh...Malachi Toney led college football with 33. Dating back to UCLA, Charlie Becker has gone 12/15 in contested catches (80%) and finished 18th in contested catch percentage at 77% with guys who had at least 45 targets...his 13 contested catches is 19th overall. TE Riley Nowakowski finished the season 28th in run blocking and 10th overall by grade by TE's. He also allowed just 2 pressures in 609 blocking snaps. C Pat Coogan finished 9th in overall grade and 12th in pass blocking grade by PFF. He upped his overall, run and pass blocking grades by 5.8 or more in his single season at IU. K Nico Radicic finished a perfect 87/87 on PAT's and missed one FG all season...Not a huge leg but pretty nice to have a kicker able to go 105/106 on kicks.

The Reactionary Take: IUFB, National Champions

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