The Reactionary Preview, National Title Preview: #1 IUFB vs #10 Miami

Aiden Fisher fires up his teammates prior to the Peach Bowl Image: Jasper Owens, Hoosier Huddle Well...This is it. It's still just a friggin' dream state like scenario. IUFB won 9 total games in the three seasons prior to Curt Cignetti's and has a chance to be the first 16-0 team since the Grover Cleveland administration. Another week and another name brand in Indiana's way to getting where it wants to go. This time it's the 5x champs Miami Hurricanes. The same Miami that lost at home to Louisville and on the road @ SMU but is 7-0 since that loss. The same Miami team that barely made the CFP before taking out Texas A&M on the road, OSU in the Cotton Bowl and then Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. This is a very good team, who, without a few hiccups, is easily looked at as one of the best teams in the nation this season. They are an elite rushing team. An Elite pass rushing team with two top 10 NFL picks on the edge. They have a super senior, and experienced, QB leading the way and are going to be playing on their home field. Can IU do what they've done all year? I'll break it all down, give my bets and then go offense and defense. via Yahoo! #1 IU vs #10 Miami — 730PM ET / 630PM CT — ESPN IU Reactionary Betting Record: 17-11 IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 31-20 Miami is a very tough team to figure out. Their bruising run game led by Mark Fletcher and their massive OL featuring multiple pro's scares me. Insane freshman WR Malachi Toney is a game changing player in the slot. DE's Ahkeem Mesidor and Reuben Bain are top 10 NFL prospects and combined for 19 sacks on the season. CB Keionte Scott and S Jakobe Thomas both rank in the top 15 in college football in coverage grade and have combined for 7 INT's this season. And yet, even with all this NFL talent all over the field, they lost at SMU and at home to Louisville. Add to that that Indiana is averaging 3.7 penalties for just 26.9 ypg, 2nd in nation. Meanwhile, Miami is much more undisciplined, averaging 4.9 penalties for 49.1 ypg (49th in the nation). The old cliche of Indiana "doesn't beat itself" is very apt here and, after watching Miami during this run and following IU under Curt Cignetti, I feel like this is a massive advantage for Indiana. Again, Miami is very efficient on third down (18th in the nation at 47%) and limiting conversions on third down by their opponent (11th at 31%). That's because they're often in good down and distances on both sides of the ball (you can see it in the charts below in my deep dive into both). They're also 12th in the nation in turnover margin. This is a team that put up good numbers on both sides of the ball all year...But you have to think that those numbers are aided by playing in an incredibly mediocre ACC where they played very few actually good teams. So, who is this team? Are they the team we've seen the past couple weeks that make a ton of mistakes but are athletic and tough enough to overcome them? Are they the team on a mission who's battle tested in close games? I think this game comes down to two things if IU is going to win a national title... Can IU stop Mark Fletcher and the Miami run game Can Carter Smith and the right tackle Adedamola Ajani / Kahlil Benson / Zen Michalski stop the pass rush duo of Mesidor and Bain. via GameOnPaper.com You wouldn't know this by looking at the matchup above that Mark Fletcher would be as critical as I think he is. He hasn't been better than either Roman Hemby or Kaelon Black this year, but it's his physical style (6'2, 225) along with a massive OL that has propelled Miami on offense (along with Malachi Toney) into being as efficient as they are. ESPN Matchup Predictior gives IU a 68% and SP+, which I love, has this as a 30-19 win for IU. I just think that, while Miami's numbers have been really good in areas I look for to predict success, IU has been just been flat out better. Miami is very mistake prone, especially if the game isn't played at their pace and if Carson Beck is forced to try to win it himself (more on this later). People forget that in that OSU game that Miami won by two scores, Julian Sayin threw a terrible pick 6 to go down 14-0 and OSU allowed Miami to score a TD in order to get the ball back instead of Miami being able to kneel it out. SP+ had Miami just a 30% post game win expectancy and just 48.6% against Ole Miss (if the game was played over in a number of simulations with the same stats, what would be the outcome for team X). This could be me wishcasting, which I try not to do but, if the tournament had been reseeded and IU had to play Ole Miss, I think IU dominates them. IU is better at every spot on on offense than Ole Miss and plays an exponentially more connected defense than Ole Miss...And Miami had to hang on at the end. For the National Championship game, I'm taking IU, the points and the OVER! via GameOnPaper.com Miami's new found running success belies their season EPA/Rush numbers above. IU is at #23 against the rush and that is still being dragged down by a couple of explosive plays early in the season. Mark Fletcher and the really good Miami OL, including future 1st round behemoth OT Francis Mauigoa, are going to have to bring their A game. I think the Miami run game scares me more than even the two dynamic pass rushers (which I'll get to shortly). They pounded OSU and methodically went up and down the field against Ole Miss but I can't help but think they're not going to be as successful against IU as they were in those other two games. How those games played out were very conducive to slowing the pace and being able to work Fletcher in through the A gap's where he loves to put his head down and run people over. This is where IU's offense is going to have to help out their defense. IU is down Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley. They saw a massive game from Daniel Ndukwe but he's much more a DE than a run stopper. My guess is that we see a ton more basically 5-2 looks with 3 DT's and Mikail Kamara, along with Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones lining up on the weak side. Fletcher doesn't really want to bump it outside so meeting Miami, strength-on-strength over their elite C James Brockermeyer. All of these Miami OL can pass block but they're not nearly as good run blocking. Brockermeyer and the guards, Matthew McCoy, Anez Cooper and (rotational OG) Samson Okunlola need to be exploited. I see a heavy rotation of Mario Landino, Tyrique Tucker, Hosea Wheeler and Dominique Ratcliff with likely three out there at a time to slow this run game up. via Pro Football Focus QB Carson Beck has only been under pressure on 17% of his drop backs but he has been atrocious when he is pressured, including just 3 TD's to go along with with 3 INT's and 6 turnover worth plays while completing just 49% of his passes...The issue is that he's only been under pressure on 17% of drop backs. He's also been much worse when getting blitzed than when not and, typically, you'd be like well "no, duh". But Fernando Mendoza has the exact same grade by PFF (90.2) when blitzed and when not blitzed with 25 TD's and just 3 INT's. Beck goes from PFF 81.6 -> 59.1 by offensive grade with 6 of his 10 turnover worth plays and 6 of his 11 INT's when blitzed...and teams have blitzed him 41% of the time. Beck has been pretty good at all levels but his accuracy dips to 44% on 20+ yard throws with 6 INT's on just 58 attempts for a deep ball INT rate of 10%. For perspective, that's 5x higher of a rate than Fernando Mendoza who's only thrown 1 INT on 51 deep balls for an insane 2% INT rate on deep balls. The bottom line is, Beck must face pressure. If he does, he might fold. IU's fans have seen better QB's than Beck fold under the pressure and sim pressure from IU DC Bryant Haines' crew. Outside of Malachi Toney, a true freshman, dynamic, "get him the ball and let him work", Miami has a lot of good, but not elite guys. TE's Elija Lofton and Alex Bauman will see plenty of snaps. Bauman is used as a blocker more than anything else and Lofton is a terrible blocker and more like a big WR at 6'3, 230. Both are skilled but IU just faced two exponentially better TE's and was ok against Oregon. WR's Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels are also former top prospects who have been pretty good this season. They've combined for 102 catches for 1235 yards and 9 TD's...Nothing to scoff at. But Toney is the main guy. IU needs to be aware of him no matter what...receiving, rushing...Miami is going to try to get him the ball as much as they can. He alone has accounted for 99 catches for 1089 yards (11 ypc) and 23 carries for 113 yards (4.9 ypc) and a rushing TD. IUFB's Defensive Keys Pressure Carson Beck Meet Mark Fletcher in the A gap Rotate the DT's to keep them fresh Do not let Malachi Toney beat you And...Pressure Carson Beck via GameOnPaper.com In a very interesting twist Miami's DC is former JMU DC under Cignetti, Corey Heatherman. He runs a very similar defense to what Bryant Haines does for IU. Zone defense with heavy pressure, lots of times with blitzes. His team is pretty good against the run but not near as good against the pass. Miami is giving up 87.5 yards per game on the ground (6th in the nation) and just 64.8 yards per game against teams with a winning record...but they haven't faced a rushing attack like IU's. Miami is prone to giving up big plays in the run game. Kaelon Black is coming on and his physical run style should pay dividends between the tackles. Roman Hemby is also physical but has more speed. The best two headed RB room in the nation will need to show out and fall forward to gain those tough yards in this one. I will be very interested to see who IU trots out at RT. It seems when they think they have an advantage in the run game, Kahlil Benson gets the start. If they think they're going to need to pass to win, they're starting Adedamola Ajani. My guess is that they're going to try to do a bit of both and both guys will play. The pass rush by Miami is incredibly good (will get to that shortly) but the best way to slow down a pass rush that's hell bent on getting to the QB is to run. I think IU has a real advantage here running between the tackles. Bain and Mesidor are both elite in the run stop by Pro Football Focus but their interior guys are not. Miami's best LB in run defense is a part time player named Raul Aguirre Jr. but he's atrocious in pass coverage. Same with LB Chase Smith. Former Rutgers MLB Mohamed Toure plays just about every down and is fine in rush defense but both Smith and Toure are equally as atrocious against the pass. I also think that LB crew is going to be exploited in the pass game by Mike Shanahan. Miami blitzes a ton with their LB's but their LB's who don't blitz are terrible in pass coverage. That means short passes over the middle. OSU and Ole Miss did a great job exploiting the intermediate and short middle and in breaking routes against the Miami zone. To me, that means Omar Cooper, Elijah Sarratt and Riley Nowakowski should be getting a heavy dose of those shorter passes. It will also help that Miami CB Xavier Lucas will be suspended for the 1st half of the title game for a targeting call in the semifinal game against Ole Miss. Lucas is Miami's third highest rated CB and second in snaps. Miami has plenty of athletes to help out while he serves his suspension. OSU had all everything WR Jeremiah Smith to go deep and make plays. But IU has Charlie Becker. To me, Becker has been the complete X factor since his ascension to more playing time in late October. Him just being out on the field moves the safeties back a couple yards. Chambliss and Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed had major issues going deep but neither had Becker or Smith (and yes, in deep balls, Becker is in the conversation with Smith). Reed's had a lot to do with the wind but also the pass rush. Chambliss just couldn't take advantage like he would have liked because of the pass rush, despite doing everything possible to will his team to win. But Fernando Mendoza is better than all three QB's Miami has faced in their playoff run to the title game and much better than all of them against the blitz, which Miami does a whopping 46% of drop backs in their three playoff games. Add to that that Miami is just 46th in the nation (206 ypg) as a pass defense overall but that number goes up to 98th (!!) in the nation at 249.6 ypg against teams with winning records. This is why I am interested to see where IU goes with how they attack this defense. Miami hasn't been successful against the run as far as EPA/play but they're also giving up a ton of yards through the air against any team with a pulse. If IU can get ~4 ypc (including sacks), there is going to be receivers open in the pass game and Mendoza is going to have to trust All American LT Carter Smith as well as whoever is on the right side to give him enough time to read and react. I expect the short and intermediate routes to be open and for IU to "efficiency" Miami down the field with manageable 3rd down distances (#1 in the nation in fewest yards to gain on 3rd down - 5.28 yards). Then they can try to get Becker deep on a safety in the Miami zone. I like that match up. IU must figure out a way to slow down Bain and Mesidor. In their three playoff games, Miami's DC Heatherman blitzed their opponents a whopping 46% of drop backs. I think they'll likely use TE Riley Nowakowski to chip but it's going to be imperative for RB's Hemby and Black to recognize pressure and get their body in the way so that Mendoza can have enough time to go to at least his second read. If he can, he should be able to pick Miami apart. IUFB's Offensive Keys Establish the run to open the pass game Must get the tough yards between the tackles with Hemby and Black Big game for Mendoza on the short and intermediate routes Miami is going to blitz...a lot...read it and react Charlie Becker deep ball master I'm ending this like I have the previous 15 and it's been perfect so far...In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti...GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!

The Reactionary Preview, National Title Preview: #1 IUFB vs #10 Miami

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