The Reactionary Preview: #1 IUFB vs #5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl

Jan 1, 2026; Pasadena, CA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers players celebrate on the podium after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images IUFB is two wins away from a national title...in friggin' FOOTBALL. I just can't get over this. I predicted IU would go 9-3 and win a bowl game this year to get that out of the way. I thought they'd have some stumbles at Iowa and Oregon which are notoriously hard places to win. Boy, was I wrong...and I couldn't be happier. I've talked about this for years whether it was on the message boards or my old substack or on podcasts or here...I have insane IUFB PTSD. I grew up a diehard Boston sports fan so the only thing I can equate this to is the Red Sox finally vanquishing the Yankees in 2004 and then beating St. Louis to win he World Series. The Red Sox hurt me so much as a kid that I just never thought they actually win until...they actually won. I always assumed the worst would happen. Hell, that's why I called myself the IU Reactionary because I act wild on Twitter during games and crashout after bad losses. All my Boston teams went on epic runs of being awesome and the only teams that haven't is IUFB and now they are. I need to re-calibrate my own expectations and not put any self imposed limitations on what this vintage of IUFB can do. Anyway, enough of me going over my trauma's, even if it is so cathartic to talk about...IU's in the damn Peach Bowl in a rematch against a very good Oregon team. I'll give my pick and then breakdown IU going against the Oregon offense and defense. #1 IU vs #5 Oregon — 730PM ET / 630PM CT — ESPN IU Reactionary Betting Record: 15-11 IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 27-17 "Give me IU and the points", I say confidently try to channel my inner Curt Cignetti and not put self imposed limitations on how good I think this team is. I see people say that it's really hard to beat a team twice and for the life of me, I can't really find out where that comes from. I found this article about college football specifically that says 45 of the 82 rematches ended up in a sweep (55%). I'm not deep diving into each of those but my guess is that not many were won on the road by double digits like IU did at Autzen earlier this season. Thanks to the playoff and conference championships, it happens much more frequently. And it favors IU to be playing on a neutral site in Atlanta, just 515 miles from Bloomington compared to the 2600+ miles it is from Eugene. Weather won't be a factor in this one as it's being played indoors but one factor outside of the field or players could be the Transfer Portal. Why would the Transfer Portal matter to these two teams? Well, it just opened a couple hours after both teams won their quarterfinal games last Thursday and the last I checked, OC Mike Shanahan and DC Bryant Haines just re-upped with IU for at least the '26 season. But both coordinators for Oregon and Dan Lanning (OC Will Stein, Kentucky and DC Tosh Lupoi, Cal) are going to be the head men running their own FBS programs. With the 8 day turnaround between quarterfinal and semifinal games and those two coordinators trying to build their own rosters at their respective P4 schools, IU might have an advantage there. Because other than what I watched with my own two eyes in Eugene on TV, I see a pretty evenly matched game, especially from the numbers (which I'll get into a bit later). I think Fernando Mendoza has gotten better and his brutal pick 6 in Eugene made that game much closer than it probably should have been. IU gave up one (1) offensive TD to the 9th best scoring offense (38 ppg) in FBS. But I also feel like Dante Moore has gotten better and their weapons, who are mostly very young, are all much more seasoned at this point, especially after playing in the Orange Bowl against a very impressive Texas Tech defense. Tech's defense was really good considering their QB, Behren Morton, was atrocious. That probably would have been a 40 point win for Oregon had the offense not been stuffed numerous times by Tech's elite defense. via gameonpaper.com These teams are, analytically, very similar. They're both very clearly really good in terms of net success and are both in the top 5, they just get there different ways. IU's got the elite offense and elite defense (IU still has those two Colton Joseph runs plus a huge run from Aidan Chiles weighing down their running stats; over 200 yards on 3 qb runs) and Oregon is right there with them in terms of efficiency. SP+ has IU -3 and ESPN's matchup predictor gives IU a 67% chance to win. I wish those numbers were a bit higher, especially SP+ (who had IU -13 against Alabama). But I can't get over the fact that IU has both of their coordinators under contract, have a shorter trip and won pretty convincingly in Eugene enough to not pick IU to win and cover. For the Peach Bowl, I'm taking Indiana, the points and the UNDER! via gameonpaper.com When IU is on DEFENSE: I'm starting with Oregon on offense because I think IU's defense is going to be the determining factor if IU is going to win the Peach Bowl. It's so foreign to me that IU would be in a position to where they're playing a team a second time that I'm reading what I wrote in my preview and looking at all the numbers again, this time with a 14 game sample from IU and Oregon, and am coming to the same conclusions. Let's start with the Oregon run game...They're really good and it's what has made Dante Moore an even more dangerous QB. Oregon has run fro 2880 yards as a team, has 34 rushing TD's and averages 204 rushing yards per game. Typically when looking at a teams running and passing attack, I want to know where they're rushing or passing well and where they're not. I'll get to Dante Moore in a bit but both the run game is really good running just about everywhere (see below). via Pro Football Focus It's not like you can pinpoint a side or even a gap they're really not explosive at and even Moore, himself, has 26 scrambles for a 7.3 average. These backs force missed tackles well, and, while they have nearly 300 yards less after contact than IU does rushing, they're still moving the pile and falling forward. It will be interesting to see how IU handles this. Alabama had such a bad run game that the loss of Stephen Daley didn't affect their run defense as they moved guys around, played Mikail Kamara at his old Stud position as well as starting Mario Landino in a DE spot and mixing in sophomore DE Daniel Ndukwe. IU's LB trio of Isaiah Jones, Rolijah Hardy and Aidan Fisher combined for 34 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 5.5 TFL's in that one. That was their coming out party as a full trio where they could play a base 4-3 and still lock down a dynamic run and pass attack. They're going to need to be shooting gaps again in the run game specifically. But taking out sack yardage, Oregon ran 45 times for just 99 yards (2.2 ypc) and 2 TD's against Texas Tech. Now, some of that was game specific because Texas Tech couldn't move the ball at all offensively, but I felt like they just couldn't get anything going on the ground, which is basically the first time that's happened for Oregon all season. Even against IU in week 7, Oregon ran 24 times for 116 yards (4.8 ypc). But Oregon was also chasing IU, specifically in the second half. Oregon's OL is big and athletic, not that that stopped IU against Bama or OSU, but it's a really good unit who's got a ton of snaps played together. So, outside of sacking Moore, IU needs to attack their run game. They don't need to be as good as Texas Tech, but anything close to 3.5 ypc sack adjusted number is perfect in my book. But IU won the game because of their pressure on Dante Moore. Moore has been sacked just 14 times in 14 games (Oregon has given up 2 other sacks in garbage time)...6 of those 14 or 43% came in the game against IU. Moore was seeing ghosts. He threw two picks and was doing the thing where he feels pressure that isn't there, lowers his eyes and can't make any play but get sacked or a throw away. To that end, Moore wasn't good under pressure (6/12 for 71 yards and an INT) but he was just as bad when he was *kept clean*, going 15/22 for 115 yards (5.2 ypa) with one TD and one INT. Bryant Haines blitzed Moore 45% of his drop backs but it was actually when he was *not blitzed* that Moore struggled the most with just a dreadful 30.0 PFF grade. He was 11/17 for just 65 yards (3.8 ypa) and both of his INT's. Again, Moore was seeing ghosts with the sim pressures and rotations of IU's vaunted zone coverage. Moore will probably see more of the same on Friday night. The one bugaboo for IU was a massive play action pass to Malik Benson for a TD and that spooked me. IU really hasn't been beaten deep much in recent weeks even if it was a little issue in the middle part of the season but Moore is skilled enough to make you pay for a bad rotation. That means safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell are going to have to remain disciplined in how they roll coverage and their communication. I expect CB's D'Angelo Ponds and Jamari Sharpe to be on their games in this one just as they were against Alabama and OSU and it will be very interesting to see how IU uses Rover Devan Boykin. He played 44 snaps in the last game against Oregon and, after showing out against a good Alabama passing attack, IU is going to need him to play just as well in this one in both run and pass defense. via gameonpaper.com When IU is on OFFENSE: Fernando Mendoza was 20/31 for 215 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in Eugene. I think they need something along those lines from him to win this game but I want to start with IU's running game. IU's rushing attack has gotten better as the season's gone on. In the Rose Bowl they rotated RT's Adedamola Ajani and Kahlil Benson after the first couple series. From where I sit, IU clearly think Ajani is the better pass protector and Benson the better run blocker. So, it will be interesting if that continues into the Peach Bowl. Either way, RB's Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are both nearing 1000 yards (Hemby just got there, Black is 102 yards away). I think IU is going to need a bit more than the 26 for 101 yards (3.9 ypc) and 2 TD's. Black had just 7 carries in this one but he's come on lately and has 64 or more yards in 6 of his last 8 starts. I think it's the best RB duo in the nation. IU's OL played one of their worst games by PFF all season in Autzen. Oregon used a lot of late motion which was, in my opinion, illegal and should have been penalties on the defense instead of false starts on the offense. I expect this to be a much more pro IU crowd and don't expect the issues with IU's OL to be jumping around like they were in that one which put them in much tougher spots than they should have been. If the OL snap issues gets cleaned up even a bit and the run game continues to do what it's been doing, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza can have a similar game as he did in their last meeting and IU can still win by a multiple scores. For Oregon, Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei are the pass rushers to be on the lookout for. The duo had 6 of Oregon's 7 combined pressures against Texas Tech, causing two fumbles, getting three sacks and three TFL's. I'm not worried about All American LT Carter Smith, although Oregon was his worst game by PFF, but I am worried about the duo of Ajani and Benson. I'm confident they will play better than they played in Eugene but we also need to see it again to establish a baseline after their good performances against Alabama. Anything that the two disruptive DE's don't get, you'll see elite MLB Bryce Boettcher clean up. He's going to be everywhere in the run game and reminds me a lot of Aidan Fisher. Fast to diagnose, strong, not overly fast but his ability to understand what's happening around him makes him better than his speed actually is. I expect a battle with him and IU TE Riley Nowakowski on any safety valve type throw from Mendoza. On the back end, Oregon has three future NFL players in senior CB Jadon Canady, freshman CB Brandon Finney and former Purdue safety and Westfield, IN native Dillon Thieneman. Now, Thieneman didn't play particularly well and got run over by Roman Hemby for a TD, but he's a good player. I still think he's a little bit more LB than safety but he's smart and has played a ton of football. The two CB's are elite. Canady is so technically sound and Finney might be the best non draft eligible CB in the nation. He took over the Texas Tech game with two INT's, including one where he read the QB's eyes dropped off of his man and made an easy catch in the end zone to end a scoring threat when the game was still in doubt. That said, Oregon has not seen the new and improved IU WR corps that features the three they saw in Eugene (Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper and EJ WIlliams). Charlie Becker has exploded onto the seen as maybe the best deep threat in college football the 6 games, averaging nearly 21 ypc in his 22 catches. And that includes a 1 catch, 6 yard performance against Purdue when the starters were pulled very early. The WR's vs the secondary of Oregon is another key for me. Both groups have more experience together but IU is playing at a whole new level lately while adding another piece to their stable entirely in Becker. In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti, “Go IU, Go IU, Go IU!”.

The Reactionary Preview: #1 IUFB vs #5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl

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