The Reactionary Take: #1 IUFB vs #9 Alabama @ The Rose Bowl

Jan 1, 2026; Pasadena, CA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Roman Hemby (1) runs against Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Domani Jackson (1) in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images I was nervous leading up to this game. Not because I thought IU would lose (I picked them to win) but it was how confident I was that IU was going to win. I had a type of confidence that had me questioning my own reading of the game. I thought IU would win by a couple scores and then the line came out at IU -7. How could that be? Alabama can't run the ball and their defense has given up yards to anyone with a functioning offense. IU came out rusty. Heisman Trophy winner Ferando Mendoza was sacked twice on the opening drive and the IU defense let Ty Simpson complete three of his first four passes. But they bowed up on both sides after knocking the rust off. IU's defense forced a punt and IU's offense then led a 16 play, 84 yard drive culminating in a FG that took 8:55 off the clock. On the ensuing possession, Alabama inexplicably went for a 4th and 1 at their own 34 and were stuffed. I honestly understood the call by Alabama HC Kaelen Deboer. I wouldn't have gone for it but he must have felt like his defense was absolutely gassed and they could get a yard because, well, they're Alabama. They didn't get that yard and IU rattled off 5 TD drives in their next 6 possessions on offense while allowing just a field goal to Alabama late in garbage time. Belt to ass. IU dominated the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE up front on both sides of the ball...read that again. All the narratives around 5* talent this and SEC athletes that and IU just drop kicked "mighty" Alabama into the sun. IU is Rose Bowl champs, but like the Kobe Bryant meme..."job's not done". On to the Peach Bowl and a rematch with Oregon. But first, I'll review my picks, highlight three players or position groups and then give some interesting stats about the team on this weeks Reactionary Take. via Yahoo! IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 24-20 Final Score: IU 38-3 — IU COVERS -7.5 / UNDER 46.5 Season Betting Record: 15-11 It seems like I'm just handing a betting fee to the sports books at this point going 1-1 in the past three weeks. If I pick the spread right, I'm wrong on the total or vice versa. In my preview for the Rose Bowl when picking this game, I wrote the following: So, for the Rose Bowl, I’m taking IU to win, Alabama to cover with a late TD to make it closer than it was, and the UNDER. I hedged. I thought IU would be covering late, up 11 and Alabama would score a meaningless TD that would make the game look tighter than it actually was. Well, I correctly picked the under, but I guess I gave Alabama QB Ty Simpson, HC Kaelen Deboer and OC Ryan Grubb way too much credit. They had no answers just like OSU and Oregon had no answers for this Bryant Haines defense. The first Alabama play of the game where Simpson ran out of a perfectly clean pocket and threw the ball away is just a microcosm for how well IU's defense disguises what they do in the secondary and their elite pass rush speeds up a QB's clock. Bama moved the ball a little bit on that first drive but I felt like that was a very insightful play and gave me confidence that IU's defense was going be hard to move on given the lack of run game by Alabama. Alabama tried to run it but finished with just 17 carries for 23 yards. Sack adjusted was a bit better at 14 for 45 but 17 of those were backup QB Austin Mack late just making plays. IU just dominated in all facets. Time of Possession: 34:21 to 25:39 Turnovers: Alabama 1 / IU 0 First Downs: IU 22 / Alabama 11 Total Yards: IU 407 / Alabama 193 And just look at this from GameOnPaper: via gameonpaper.com Alabama had no answers. IU just did what it does to every team. The out efficiency'd the crap out of and Alabama team we were told was "finally healthy" and "coming into it's own". Capping off the game with a 95th percentile havoc rate and allowing just a 16th percentile EPA/Play to a team filled with the athletes that should be doing that to you is nasty work. Devan Boykin Although CB D'Angelo Ponds won the defensive player of the game, Devan Boykin was the actual player of the game. I'm not taking away anything from D'Angelo as his hit on Ty Simpson caused a big fumble but also knocked Simpson out of the game. But Boykin was all over the place. I think what gets lost in his performance this season is that Indiana is so multiple that they can be elite with a true 4-3 type defense or a 3-3-5 or the typical 4-2-5 where Boykin plays the Rover. Boykin often gets lost because he simply isn't really needed against some teams. But when he's needed, he shows out. Boykin finished the Rose Bowl with 7 tackles, 3 TFL's, 1 sack and 6 "stops" (PFF stat - tackles that constitute a "failure" for the offense) and a 2nd on the team overall PFF grade of 83.6. He was everywhere. He allowed 5/5 targets to be completed but that was by design, keeping everything in front of him and he used his elite tackling skills to have those 5 completions turn into just 24 yards. He's been a ferocious tackler all season finishing first on IU in tackling grade by PFF and 18th in the nation among all safeties and corners. Oh, and he led IU in overall defensive grade by PFF this season with an elite 90.3 in 524 snaps. That was good for 10th among all safeties and corners in college football. And with the losses up front to Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt, IU had to move some guys around and get creative but it's a lot easier to get creative when you can bring in a 5th year senior heat seeking missile who also just happens to be very good in coverage. Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby IU C Pat Coogan won the offensive MVP as they couldn't really give it to the entire unit. The OL was awesome but I wanted to talk about the two absolute dogs IU has running the ball. IU has now played 14 games this year and Roman Hemby broke the 1000 yard mark for the first time in his career (1007 so far). He finished the Rose Bowl with 18 carries for 89 yards (4.9 ypc including 79 after contact), 1 TD, 4 missed tackles forced and 4.39 YCO/A (yards after contact per attempt). Not to be outdone, Kaelon Black ran 15 times for 99 yards (6.6 ypc including 77 after contact), 1 TD, 6 missed tackles forced and 5.13 YCO/A. Black, who was briefly injured, now has 898 yards rushing on season and IU is just 102 yards away from having two 1000 yard backs for the first time since I've been following the team (I wasn't going back past the mid 90s). These two have been awesome all season and they shredded Alabama's defense forcing an elite 10 missed tackles against all those 5*'s that we'd heard so much about. A big credit to the OL but Hemby and Black made some of their own luck by forcing misses and getting extra yards, including 4 15+ yard "breakaway" runs. IU's going to need both of those guys ready to go against an Oregon defense that looked pretty frisky in their shutout over Texas Tech...who looked lost on offense all day. I can't figure out if it was Texas Tech being awful or Oregon being really good...But that's for the preview coming up. Fernando Mendoza The Heisman winner put on a clinic, again, on a national stage in Pasadena. Mendoza finished 14/16 (88%) for 192 yards (12.0 y/a) and 3 TD's. I'm stealing this directly from this ESPN Insights tweet because it shows you just how much Mendoza has matured since the Iowa game where he was blitzed nearly 2/3 of all drop backs: "Alabama blitzed Fernando Mendoza a season-high 12 times. He was 8-8 for 161 yards and 3 TD against 5 or more pass rushers, the first QB with 3 pass TD vs the Alabama blitz since Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel in 2013" Fernando Mendoza Passing Direction via Pro Football Focus Is going 5/5 for 103 yards and 2 TD's on 20+ yard throws good? Because that's what Mendoza did. He is/was elite at holding defenders with his eyes long enough to make the perfect pass into where he knew he had one on one and IU's receivers tore up one of the best secondaries in college football by prospect ranking and PFF grades. Alabama had no answers. Oh, and he ran 5 times for 38 yards (7.6 ypc and 22 after contact) with two of them going for 1st downs. He's such an unselfish and smart player. He's grown so much since that Old Dominion game where he would bring his eyes down way too quickly and not work the pocket. He's literally a different player. He's not going to beat you with his running but he feels pressure and is athletic enough to escape and once he gets going, he can really scoot. IUFB Quick Hits: Roman Hemby has gone over 52 yards rushing in 12 of IU's 14 games Since 11/1, Charlie Becker is averaging 76.8 ypg, and that includes a 1 catch for 6 yard performance against Purdue With his 5 pressures in the Rose Bowl, Mikail Kamara is up to 53 on the season, 14th in FBS. He also collected his 2nd sack of the season Sophomore DE Daniel Ndukwe played a career high 23 defensive snaps in the absence of Stephen Daley and finished with 2 solo tackles with PFF recording both as "Stops" IU has now rushed for 3090 yards at a 5.4 ypc clip with 31 TD's in 14 games as a team IU has 6553 total yards (468 ypg) and 72 TD's in 14 games IU's defense has given up just 1032 yards rushing and their 73.7 ypg is 2nd in the nation IU's defense has allowed just 3536 total yards and their 252.6 ypg is 2nd in the nation

The Reactionary Take: #1 IUFB vs #9 Alabama @ The Rose Bowl

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