IU Reactionary Preview: The Rose Bowl – IUFB vs Alabama

The Rose Bowl Game logo at center field as the Oregon Ducks face the Ohio State Buckeyes Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. It's finally here. IU knows it's playing Alabama in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. I knew it wasn't going to be an easy road by any means but I kind of would have preferred to play the team who can't move the ball on offense to Alabama but here we are and I can't be more excited. IU will have had a little less than a month to get more healthy and around 11 days to prep after Alabama dispatched of Oklahoma on the road in Norman 34-24 on Friday night in the first ever win in the College Football Playoff by a road team. It was also one of the weirdest games I watched all season. Neither team could run the ball at all. Oklahoma stormed out to a 17-0 lead and then, after an Alabama TD drive to make it 17-7, Oklahoma has an inexplicable drop on a that probably makes it 24-7, forcing a punt. Alabama counters with a FG and then Oklahoma QB John Mateer throws one of the worst pick six's I've ever seen...It was so bad it looked like a points shaving incident. It was a really ugly football game all around and, out side of Alabama QB Ty Simpson picking apart Oklahoma in the second half, it wasn't all that impressive from any other aspect for me when watching it for Alabama. If you haven't read me before, welcome...The format is pretty simple (just like Googling Curt Cignetti). I'm going to give some high level thoughts and pick the game based on the spread and OVER/UNDER. Then I'm going to go into the matchups of the IU offense and defense against Alabama's offense and defense. Buckle up... #1 IU vs #9 Alabama — 400PM ET / 300PM CT — ESPN IU Reactionary Betting Record: 14-10 IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 24-20 It's very hard to predict these games. I feel like 14-10 on the season is pretty respectable given that I'd almost never have bet on one or both of the lines if I wasn't doing this for scientific purposes (do I need the 1-800-GAMBLER thing at the end of this when explaining my bets?). I think everything I've looked at with this matchup screams IU will win by at least a TD and maybe more except...I'm an IU football fan. Years of pent up PTSD of losing big games has keeps getting washed away and I become more confident in this team every single week. But this isn't Maryland. This isn't Iowa. This is mighty Alabama. How on earth can Indiana be full TD favorite over the vaunted Alabama Crimson Tide. Well, this isn't the Alabama teams of the 2010s but it's still a good Alabama team. If this were any of those teams, even from a couple years ago...IU wouldn't be -7 on a neutral field. And they certainly wouldn't be given a 71.4% chance to win via ESPN's matchup predictor...READ THAT AGAIN. Want more prediction metrics? SP+ has IU as a *13.1* favorite in their model. Please...READ THAT AGAIN, ALSO. I can't lie, if this line came out and it was IU -3 or something like that, I'd be much more inclined to think IU would lose outright. That it's -7 made me feel very good. The weather (and wind) should be perfect in Pasadena (as it always is), so this should be about as perfect a matchup as you can have. Even after IU's dramatic win in the Big Ten Title Game against OSU, it's going to take time for the college football world writ large to believe that IU can actually hang with these teams...First, it was might OSU, but that wasn't an SEC school. Now it's an SEC school. So anyone on social media posting about IU is going to instantly have SEC mouth breathers talking about IU's history (which has zero relevance to this game) or IU's star rankings (IU won at Oregon and beat OSU on a neutral site, so that's dumb) or even that IU has no good wins still...Forget all that. So, for the Rose Bowl, I'm taking IU to win, Alabama to cover with a late TD to make it closer than it was, and the UNDER. via gameonpaper.com Beyond the line of the game, I like giving people the advanced numbers. I've said this over and over again...I understand that it's hard to buy into these if you don't really understand them, and, I can be honest, I understand them but I don't understand them like I do with baseball. With baseball, I get where wRC+ was derived and what it means. I get what IVB is on a pitch. I get what I'm looking at in terms of launch angle and the expected numbers that come from that. Football is a little different. There isn't some standardized thing across every platform at this point. Advanced football metrics are still in it's relative infancy compared to baseball (or even basketball). People have different measures of "success". Because I've been using GameOnPaper for more than a year, I think the most important thing you're looking at with the numbers above is simply where they rank and how green (or purple) the numbers are. And IU has a lot of green. I'll explain it more in the micro below, but I think this game is going to come down to can IU get pressure on Alabama QB Ty Simpson or not. It's honestly that simple. IU is one of the most efficient teams in the country and, depending on where you look, IU is in the top three in virtually all overall team metrics and Alabama is not. So keep that in mind when you're arguing with SEC/Alabama fans on Twitter or other social media platforms. That said, Alabama has athletes all over the field just like OSU. They have a brilliant offensive coach in former IU OC Kalen DeBoer and one of the best defensive coordinators in the sport...former IU DC Kane Wommack. Add to that that Curt Cignetti was an assistant under Nick Saban during part Bama's historic run and ther are no shortages of story lines leading up to this game. Nothing is going to be easy in this one because Alabama's athletes can more than make up for their lack of execution. Alabama seems to have peaked mid season. They won on the road at Georgia. Might be better than IU winning at Oregon. But I watched this game and Alabama was up 14-0 early and 24-14 at half...They barely held on in the second half while scoring no points. They beat good Vanderbilt by two scores at home and beat Missouri and Tennessee who were ranked at the time and turned out to be completely mediocre teams. In the second half of their season Alabama lost to Oklahoma at home and got destroyed by Georgia in the SEC championship. They also really struggle with Auburn, LSU and South Carolina. Three teams with talent but who are middling at best as a full unit this year. IU is better than all those teams except maybe Georgia. That's why I'm confident IU is going to win. via gameonpaper.com I hadn't included the spider charts that GameOnPaper has recently added but I did here because they're a really easy way to see where IU and Bama rank within the fabric of FBS in all these key metrics. Alabama is 13th in the nation in scoring defense giving up just 18 points per game and 289 ypg. Given their schedule, I think Kane Wommack has a very underrated unit full of elite talent. But they had a huge home field advantage in Bryant-Denny Stadium giving up just 11.4 ppg at home. This won't be a road game by any means but the efficiency of IU's offense both running and passing won't be hindered by the Alabama faithful like it would in a home game. Alabama is better against the pass than the run. Good news though...IU is very good at running the ball! Again, this is a good rush defense, but not like how the Bama defenses of old were. Alabama is 30th in FBS is rush yards against giving up 120 per game. IU is averaging 221 yards per game on the ground. Alabama has athletes. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are going to have to earn it but there also should be yards to get on the ground. I expect both to go for 50+ yards. Per PFF, Bama's top three run defenders, all pretty elite are in the back 7 (S Bray Hubbard, CB Zabien Brown and LB Deontae Lawson). That typically means that OL's are getting push and opening up holes on the DL. And from the games I've watched, that's exactly what has happened, especially in the back half of the season. That said, as I'll keep saying, the athletes that Alabama has, especially on the lines is second to none. DT Tim Keenan is a mountain of a man. Other names to watch in the run game are LB Nikhai Hill-Green, DT's Edric Hill and London Simmons and DE Yhonzae Pierre. Bama just doesn't make enough plays in the backfield (54th in TFL's per game at 5.8 per game) to make good running teams that nervous. The reason I'm so confident in IU's ability to run the ball is that they showed that ability against an equally as talented, but better, group against OSU. We saw IU replace RT Zen Michalski with Kahlil Benson and Adedamola Ajani replace RG Bray Lynch in the middle of that game and IU didn't miss a beat...In face, they were better, in my opinion, with those two out there in both run blocking and pass protection. With nearly a month off, we'll see who gets the nod but if Benson is healthy, I don't see any reason he should be back to starting. It's typically said that the LG is the least important position on the line. IU is still undefeated when LG Drew Evans plays a game and his presence, for whatever reason, makes that "LG isn't important" thing seem silly just from watching IU's OL play with him and without him. Evans missed more than a month and had a brace on his ankle for the OSU game but was very good and with more time off, he should be full go. Now, can Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza make plays down the field against this Alabama defense? First, when watching this team and looking at PFF, it was shocking to see how few sacks Bama has. They're just 62nd nationally in sacks per game at 2.14. That is a shocking number given their athletes and Kane Wommack's attacking style of defense. Their pass rushing grades are equally as middling. All in the 60s which is fine...but not Alabama like. Their best pass rusher is Yhonzie Pierre who has 43 pressures (29th in FBS). But IU has 45 more pressures and 9 (39) more sacks in one less game than Bama does as a team. Now, Wommack does a really good job in his 4-2-5 base of disguising things for opposing QB's. In their 7 road/neutral site games, Bama is giving up 198 ypg. But it's still also hard to tell if that's because they're facing mediocre QB's or their secondary is just that good. They've forced just 11 INT's in 14 games. Bama has also been hurt by the QB run. Mendoza is not Diego Pavia or even Gunner Stockton...but he's not a statue either. I expect some designed QB runs, especially up the middle and for Mendoza to pull the ball when a defender is taking the back. The names to know on the back end beyond the two I mentioned above (CB Brown, LB Hill-Green and S Hubbard) are CB Dijon Lee Jr., S Keon Sabb and LB Justin Jefferson. But Alabama plays a lot of guys and the Wommack philosophy is still to limit big plays and keep everything in front of you. To have success, IU's going to have to go back to the 5-7 out routes to the boundary and WR screens to force Alabama to play closer to the LOS and then hit them with back shoulder throws and isolated 1v1's in matchups they like. Against OSU, they hammered S Sonny Styles and CB Jermaine Matthews. It will be very interesting to see who OC Mike Shanahan thinks he can isolate and beat in this matchup. Teams seem to try to pick on CB Lee deep and CB Domani Jackson and S Hubbard short to some success. I expect IU to be able to move the ball on this defense. Bama has given up yardage and points to teams with efficient offenses and that's exactly what IU is. But can IU score TD's when they get it in the red zone? Bama is allowing TD's on just 51% of red zone opportunities, good for 17th nationally while IU is 14th at scoring TD's at 72%. IU must score TD's to win this game. To recap when IU is on offense Run, run run...Must establish the run Stay in manageable down and distance...Bama doesn't want to give up a big play Nickel and dime Bama down the the field Exploit Bama's lack of a pass rush Finish in the red zone via gameonpaper.com Typically, I start with IU's defense. I would have here but I feel like this matchup is extremely straight forward, as I mentioned at the outset. If IU can put pressure on Ty Simpson, I don't think Alabama can score enough to keep it close. I think Simpson is a very good QB. Like all QB's, his numbers drop dramatically when under pressure. But Simpson is really, really bad when under pressure. On the season, Simpson has thrown for more than 3500 yards, 28 TD's and just 5 INT's. Really good numbers. But Simpson's a different player when kept clean vs when under pressure. When he's kept clean (70% of snaps), Simpson looks like one of the best passers in the nation. He's thrown for 2824 yards (8.2 ypa), 24 TD's and just 4 INT's on a 69.4% completion rate. PFF has him at a 91.1 passing grade which is good for 13th nationally. When pressured (30% of snaps), Simpson is tied for 7th with 8 Big Time Throws (or BTT) and 4 TD's. Sounds great! But he's also tied for 8th in Turnover Worthy Plays (or TWP) with 10 and yet just one (1) of those has turned into an INT. PFF has Simpson as the 73rd graded QB under pressure with just 670 yards on 49.8% completion rate with just 5.9 yards per attempt on 113 passes. While Simpson is pressured on just 30% of his snaps, against their last two and toughest opponents, Alabama's OL has kind of collapsed. They allowed pressure on a whopping 42% of snaps as Oklahoma and Georgia seem to have found the blue print that blitzing Simpson is the easiest way to throw off his clean pocket and timing but also the makes it easier to confuse him. Georgia did this much more successfully than Oklahoma after Alabama clearly made some adjustments to their protections after going down 17-0 in that last game. Regardless, I think the entire game comes down to if IU can pressure Ty Simpson consistently enough or cause him an extra second with IU's patented sim pressures and coverage rotations post snap. And, I'm pretty confident they can because that's DC Bryant Haines' specialty. Simpson is an accurate QB, nothing amazing but 65% is fine...but Julian Sayin was historic and IU had Sayin seeing ghosts. Numerous times in the Big Ten Title game IU's sim pressures and rotating secondary had Sayin totally confused from what he saw pre and then post snap. Simpson is older and played more football but Sayin was the most accurate passer in the history of college football and IU had him confused. While Sayin's overall numbers were pretty good (72% completion rate), IU forced him into a rough INT early and IU's pressure certainly hindered his ability to survey what was actually happening. IU funnelled a bunch of passes short to Smith and took away everything over the top. If it were up to me, just knowing what I've watched with Bama and looking at the PFF grades up front, their OT's have given up a combined 55 pressures. RG Wilkin Formby was moved from RT to RG the past month or so but is included in that group of OT's with Kadyn Proctor and Michael Carroll staying outside. Their pass blocking grades are pretty good across the board but, boy, do they give up a lot of pressures. Just for some perspective...IU's OL has given up 57 total pressures *the entire season*. The other issue for Bama up front is that starting C Parker Brailsford hasn't looked very healthy at all. He played against Oklahoma but didn't look 100%. He's allowed 5 pressures the past two games. Starting IU C Pat Coogan has allowed 8 total pressures all season. We'll see where he's at a couple days before the game with the injury report. These guys are good and all have NFL talent, but something isn't clicking, especially lately, as a unit and IU needs to take advantage. With DE Stephen Daley out injured, it's going to be interesting to see who lines up opposite Mikail Kamara. Does IU move DT Mario Landino outside? Do they let sophomore DE Daniel Ndukwe loose? Do they go with more of a 3-3-5 look knowing that Alabama's run game has done nothing for a long time? I think we'll see a combo of all of the above. I think we see a big game from Kamara...just a hunch. IU got to Julian Sayin and Dante Moore for a combined 11 sacks and 17 TFL's. IU blitzed those two 46% of drop backs. Simpson has more experience but he's much worse against pressure so I expect we see a bunch of blitzes and exotic looks that IU moves out of before the snap with sim pressures coming and dropping out. IU's elite LB corps will very likely be utilized in a similar fashion as against OSU. I expect Aidan Fisher to patrol the middle of the field while we see Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy do their thing in pass rush and run stopping. IU needs to attack this offensive line with said blitz and stunt packages in an attempt to throw off the timing and the eyes of Simpson because if he has time, he has some absolute dudes on the outside. While WR Ryan Williams has seemingly disappeared with a bad case of the drops after an insane freshman year and good start to this one, that slack has been more than picked up by WR's Germie Bernard, Lotzeir Brooks, and Isaiah Horton. Oh, and they have a future NFLer in TE Josh Cuevas who finally looked healthy again against Oklahoma. These are are all elite athletes with big time speed and twitch, and, in the case of Horton and Cuevas, NFL size to go along with that athleticism. But IU just faced a receiving corps as good as this one against OSU and did a very good job shutting them down while still letting future top 5 pick WR Jeremiah Smith to get his while not letting him blow the game open over the top. I expect All American CB D'Angelo Ponds and under appreciated CB Jamari Sharpe to be up to the task. I also expect we see more Rover Devan Boykin in this one as Alabama will likely be totally in 11 personnel. So that leaves the husk of the once vaunted Alabama run game. I'm going to throw out some shocking stats here...Bama is 120th in rush yards per game (120). IU has rushed for 1336 more yards (2875 total) than Bama has in one less game. Bama has had one 100 yard rusher all season and that was freshman Jam Miller on October 4th against Vandy. Bama's highest rushing total by a single back has been under 62 yards in 9 of their 14 games. Their OL is all in the "yellow" on PFF for run blocking grade and while they ran fine against Auburn recently (158 yards on 38 carries), the run game is a mess. I just don't see a world where Bama is able to move the ball consistently enough on the ground to pose a real threat to this IU defense. There just isn't really much to say outside of Daniel Hill and Jam Miller having a ton of physical tools but both are averaging just 3.9 ypc. I expec Bama to be under 3 ypc in the Rose Bowl. The one thing IU is going to have to contend with is that Ty Simpson isn't afraid to use his legs. Of all the QB's that have "given IU trouble" (in quotes because IU hasn't had much trouble in the Cignetti era with QB's), the mobile QB does give me some pause. And Simpson is athletic, but so are IU's DE's and LB's. To recap when IU is on defense Pressure, pressure, pressure Force Simpson into longer processing times with sim pressures and late rotations in the secondary Attack the the OL with blitzes Keep the explosive WR's in front of you Don't allow Simpson to beat you with his legs Do what you do against the run Going back to the well on this one – As the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti once said: GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!

IU Reactionary Preview: The Rose Bowl – IUFB vs Alabama

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