Cream & Crimson Computations: IU Takes a Fall on the Road

Dec 3, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Tayton Conerway (6) drives towards the basket against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the second half at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images Though they were undefeated, once the Bethune-Cookman game was in the books, it was clear looking at the schedule that Indiana would soon truly determine what kind of team it had this season. Having a ranking next to our name was nice, but with Louisville, Kentucky, and Big Ten conference play looming, the 314th KenPom-ranked non conference schedule was mostly behind us and it was time to put up or shut up. Unfortunately, in the first test of the conference slate, the Hoosiers played uninspiring basketball and lost to a likely below-average Minnesota team in The Barn. So, where does this leave us from an analytical standpoint? Let’s take a look. Rebounding It was clear from the offseason roster construction that Indiana was going to have to play small ball this season. Reed Bailey is really the only player above 6’10” on the roster that sees playing time, and even at that height, he is often smaller and less physical than opponent’s big men. So, rebounding was going to be an issue for this team. That showed on Wednesday night, as the Gophers outrebounded the Hoosiers 40 to 25 overall and 10 to 5 on the offensive glass. Per CBBAnalytics, Indiana is securing an offensive rebound on just 29.6% of their missed shot attempts, 41st percentile nationally and 17th out of 18 in the Big Ten. This is especially tough to swallow considering the competition in the always physical Big Ten is only going to stiffen moving forward. Steal Percentage An improvement over Indiana teams of the past couple of years has been the guard play, highlighted by Tayton Conerway at point guard. Not only did Conerway lead the Hoosiers in points on Wednesday night despite only being able to play 23 minutes due to foul trouble, but Conerway added 4 steals on the defensive end of the floor. That brings his total to 11 in the last four games. On December 3rd per Evan Miya’s player skill projections, Conerway led the nation in Steal Percentage at 4.3% - this was before Wednesday’s contest in which he added the four additional steals. NET Rankings Despite the first blemish on the record, Indiana did find itself in a decent position this week when the NCAA’s first NET rankings came out. Through the games on December 4th, Indiana finds itself at #24 in the country, 5th in the Big Ten (Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, USC) and one spot ahead of Illinois. As of now, the Minnesota loss is lingering as a Q2 loss, which the Hoosiers will hope that remains steady and does not fall into a Q3 loss once the March Madness resume comparisons truly kick off. Saturday in Indy In case you hadn’t heard, it’s a pretty big day in Indianapolis for the Hoosiers this Saturday as the basketball squad takes on Louisville in Gainbridge Fieldhouse prior to the football team’s Big Ten Championship game in Lucas Oil Stadium. Louisville is coming off their first loss of the season as well (it’s not easy winning on the road!), but is currently ranked 6th in the AP Poll and 13th in KenPom. The Cardinals bring in one of the nation’s top rated offenses led by a backcourt of Xavier transfer Ryan Conwell, who averages 19.5 points and became the 17th active player with 1,500 career points to his name in their last game, and Mikel Brown Jr., a true freshman point guard currently projected to be drafted in the lottery of this year’s NBA Draft. They also have Evan Miya’s top currently projected 3-point shooter in Isaac McKneely, a projected 41.7% shooter from behind the arc. The Hoosier defense will need to be at its best to kick off what could be a historic day in the state. Stay tuned each week as I’ll continue to compile intriguing statistics from the Indiana men’s basketball season. Follow along to all coverage on Hoosier Huddle.