The Reactionary Preview: The B1G Title Game – IUFB vs Ohio State

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) rushes up the field Friday, Nov. 28, 2025, during the 100th annual Old Oaken Bucket game at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette. Indiana Hoosiers defeated the Purdue Boilermakers, 56-3. I still need to be pinched to even imagine that the Indiana football team that I've followed so closely for so long finished the regular season...in the B1G conference...12-0 and is headed to the B1G title game and then will likely get a bye in the College Football Playoff. It's just mind blowing. I thought with the right investment IU could turn into Minnesota or Michigan State or even Wisconsin. I realize the latter two have fallen off of late but I just wanted consistent bowl games with a 9-10 win season sprinkled in. But since HC Curt Cignetti has taken over an IU team that won 9 games in the previous three seasons, he's gone 23-2 with the only losses being @ OSU and @ Notre Dame (insert larry david "pretty, pretty, pretty good" gif here). Enough about that. IU has arrived. IU is a national power and #2 IU will be playing #1 OSU in Indy for the B1G title game on Saturday (even though ESPN's College Game Day will not be there...which is for a different post and is more funny than anything else). In this weeks B1G Championship addition of The Reactionary Preview, we'll break it all down. via Yahoo! #2 IU vs #1 OSU — 800PM ET / 700PM CT — FOX IU Reactionary Betting Record: 12-10 IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 24-23 F*** it. We've come too far this season to not just go with the heart here. SP+ has this game as close as it can be at 26-25 OSU. ESPN's match up predictor has IU as a slight *favorite* at 50.6% chance to win the game. The website CFB Graphs, which I've been using to do hypothetical B1G title match ups with IU (because I'm a psycho, I guess) is slightly less optimistic and gives OSU a 28-22 edge on a neutral site (60.6% chance to win). But I don't care about any of that. OSU is -5.5 and as I told the guys from the Kirkwood & Dunn podcast before the Purdue game, I'm taking IU...That was off the top of my head and I had IU winning 34-31 but I don't think either team scores that much after looking at it. These are two electric defenses and, while the offenses are very good and efficient, I just really think points will be at a premium. Put it this way, I'm more worried about OSU's defense against IU's offense than the other way around. The other thing we can't forget is that IU went right down at OSU last year and scored on the scripted drive and then had issues the rest of the game moving the ball. OSU was the better team that day but IU gifted them a TD before the half on the James Evans dropped punt and then the dreadful punt out of halftime that all everything S Caleb Downs returned for a TD and then BAM...the game was just over. But IU also has better athletes and better weapons this year on both sides of the ball this year and, while I think this vintage of OSU is absolutely loaded...I think they were more loaded last year. They had to replace the likes of WR Emeka Ebuka, RB's, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, DE's Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, 5th year QB Will Howard, S Lathan Ransom and LB Cody Simon... I could go on. And they still had most of the same guys they had last year playing this season. The point is that I'm not sure if they're actually better than they were last season and I *know* IU is better than they were last season at a bunch of positions. I don't think IU can win a game in the 30s against OSU. I think anything in the low 20s is the sweet spot. If IU doesn't score 20, I just don't see how they can keep up with OSU. These are the two most statistically dominant teams in college football this year. Could IU lose by 3+ scores like they did last year? I'm just not seeing that. For the B1G Championship game, I'm taking IU to COVER (and win) the +5.5 and the UNDER. via gameonpaper.com People use different numbers to define some of these stats to get these numbers like "what is a 'successful' run" but by just about every measure, these are the two most statistically dominant teams in college football. I think the one thing that sticks out to me that IU still needs to get under control as the season moves forward is the busted coverage plays in the secondary. IU allowed (9-3) ODU QB Colton Joseph to run twice for 152 yards and 2 TD's in the first game of the season which still skews their numbers in the run game a little bit but the passing game has been where they're still given up about one "what the hell was that coverage" per game. For IU to beat a team as smart, disciplined and efficient as OSU, lapses in the run game or the passing game absolutely cannot happen. IU's Defense via gameonpaper.com Since about week 6 last year, I've started the previews I do with the defense because I think IU has one of the best defenses in the country. IU's offense in both Curt Cignetti seasons has been very good and really efficient but the amount of havoc plays this DC Bryant Haines led IU defense makes and how much success they have getting off the field on 3rd down. I'm starting there again for this one. Despite many the numbers above being outside the top 10, IU's defense ranks 4th in total defense (252 ypg), is 2nd in run defense and 14th in pass defense. One thing we've seen is that this IU defense travels and hopefully it continues to travel...around 60 miles up the road to Indy. In both the losses under Curt Cignetti (yes, two losses in two seasons is just wild), IU's defense probably made just a handful of bad plays and only one really bad one (the ND RB Jeremiyah Love 98 yard run). As I mentioned above, IU's offense and special teams has really been where they've been outclassed by the top teams... ...but not this year. IU allowed just one offensive TD to one of the most explosive offenses in FBS on the road at Oregon. They have allowed more than 14 defensive points just twice in 12 games (QB Fernando Mendoza had a pick 6 against Oregon to give them 20 points). The first was the two runs by Colton Joseph and ODU and the other was when they took their foot off the gas at PSU when up 20-7 late in the third quarter. That's it. And OSU hasn't played any defense like this IU one so far. OSU doesn't typically kill you with explosive plays over and over. From all the games I've watched they've been just as ruthlessly efficient and methodical with the ball as IU. They're seemingly never behind schedule, have just 5.59 average 3rd down distance and weapons all over the field which makes defenses have to defend sideline to sideline. QB Julian Sayin has been very good this year. He's got 30 TD's and just 5 INT's to go along with a brilliant, FBS leading completion percentage of 79% while throwing for 255 ypg. Sayin has been under pressure on just 24% of his drop backs and that's where IU needs to take advantage if they're going to win this game. To me, IU's pass rush vs Julian Sayin is the ball game for IU on defense. I know he has future 1st round picks WR's Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith to go along with likely 1st round TE Max Klare but teams have been picked apart this year because Sayin has been allowed to sit back in the pocket and survey the field. OSU's OL has graded out 31st in pass blocking by PFF and, hopefully, IU's 13th graded pass rush, led by DE's Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley can make Sayin uncomfortable. Sayin has looked human under pressure. Still, he graded out 9th by grade in FBS when under pressure, but not the 1st overall grade he has when he's kept clean. In doing my deep dive, one of the things that stood out to me is that Sayin is decent at knowing when to get rid of the ball and not allowing pressures himself. Per PFF, he's allowed pressure himself on just 12% of drop backs, 41st in FBS. His OL, however, is to blame on 85% of drop backs (23rd in FBS) and specifically, the right side of his OL starting with his C Carson Hinzman, RG Tegra Tshabola and RT Phillip Daniels. They have allowed 65% of the 85% of the pressures attributed to the OL. Essentially, attacking the middle and right side of the OL is the place to find success. One thing playing into IU's favor here is that Sayin simply isn't a runner. He hasn't run for a TD this season (not that he's really needed to) but if (big if) IU can get pressure on Sayin, can he extend plays and drives with his legs. The jury is still out for me there and that's where IU's second level will need to stay disciplined in pass coverage while being quick to recognize that Sayin might run. Freshman RB Bo Jackson has been really good down the stretch going for 100 yards the past three games. He looked really good in the snow against Michigan. But that wasn't the '24 vintage of Michigan with DT's Kenneth Grant (13th pick in the draft) and Mason Graham (5th pick). I think IU and their 2nd ranked rush defense will be ready for him. I think OSU will try to establish him to stay on schedule but I think guys like DT's Tyrique Tucker, Hosea Wheeler, Mario Landino and LB's Aidan Fisher, Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy will be up to the task...OSU hasn't played a against an as aggressive or maneuverable front 7 this season. The final matchup here is on the outside. Despite the score being lopsided, IU held Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to 7 catches for 102 yards. That doesn't count Emeka Ebuka who had a good day (7 catches for 80 yards and a TD). But Ebuka is gone. Enter TE Max Klare and his 41 catches as the 3rd guy behind the two future 1st round WR's. IU has typcially been hurt by good TE's in the Bryant Haines era. Guys like Michigan TE Colston Loveland and Nebraska TE Tommy Fidone have been relied upon as IU's LB's surge up to attack the run and find a soft spot in front of the safeties and behind the retreating LB's. I expect to see a lot of play action from OSU to try to make those holes over the middle just a little bit bigger. I think IU will live with that as long as they're not getting gashed on the ground. Klare vs the LB's and safeties will be as important as the CB's vs WR's. CB D'Angelo Ponds will be ready to go. Ponds gave up just 4 catches for 24 yards last year against OSU as they decided to pick on others, mainly DE Lanell Carr and CB Jamier Johnson, both now gone. Enter CB Jamari Sharpe. The 6'1 Sharpe is a has the size and physicality to match up with both Tate and Smith but can he put it all together? Sharpe has allowed 23 of 35 targets to be completed for a middling 65.7% completion rate but that has gone for just 265 yards and 0 TD's. He ranks 62nd among all FBS CB's (out of 522 qualifiers) in coverage grade (78.7). He's been an unsung hero and he's going to need to play like a hero on Saturday if IU is going to win this game. Also, please stay healthy... Keys for IU's defense Pressure Sayin Pressure the right side of his OL Continue to dominate in run defense Limit the one random blown coverage Make someone other than Smith or Tate beat you Stay healthy IU's Offense via gameonpaper.com If Fernando Mendoza wants to win the Heisman Trophy, he's got to show it in this game against, statistically, one of the best defenses in a long time. If he turns in a #Heismendoza performance, he'll make IU history and IU should win the game. Just in terms of raw numbers, OSU is 1st in pass defense, 4th in rush defense and 1st in total defense, allowing just *203 ypg*. That is 45 yards better than the 2nd ranked defense. Oh yeah, and they're also allowing just 8 ppg. Doing much of anything is going to be a tall task but, as I said above about OSU's offense and IU's defense, they haven't gone up against an offense as good as IU's. They haven't really gone up against any great offense. They held a pretty good Washington offense to just 6 points in Seattle but Washington hasn't been the same because of injuries and even lost at Wisconsin scoring just 10 points. So far, no one has really done much. Like IU, they're just very good once they figure out what you're trying to do and then just lean on you with their attacking DE's Caden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson and use elite LB Arvell Reece to go sideline to sideline to clean up anything in the run game. For IU's passing game to get going, IU's OL is going to have to hold up. How many times have we said this? IU had LG James Evans off the injured list last week but he didn't play. IU again went with redshirt freshman Adedamola Ajani at LG. Ajani graded out much better in pass blocking than run blocking last week but I thought he was pretty good. The OL also had injured RT Kahlil Benson rotated in to test out his legs. I'm really hoping Evans gets back for this game as that would be a big deal for Mendoza and the passing attack. IU has yet to lose a game that Evans has played in and Evans is currently 21st overall in pass blocking grade by PFF. How do you attack OSU? I think if I honestly knew, I'd probably be on someone's staff. OSU has a great scheme under DC Matt Patricia but they have incredible players executing that scheme. In my opinion, the weakest part of this defense is the CB's .Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Matthews. Both have had their share of issues. Igbinosun commits pass interference on every single snap. He has only been flagged five times this season after being flagged an absurd 16 times in '24. He's going to be in full press coverage, grabbing and holding all day, just like IU saw at Oregon. His bet is always that they can't call it on every play. Matthews has five penalties against this year and while Igbinosun has been pretty good by PFF grade, Matthews hasn't. I expect IU to try to attempt to attack the sideline with Elijah Sarratt, Charlie Becker and EJ Williams (if healthy - he missed the PU game). I think IU will want to avoid anywhere that elite safety Caleb Downs is, so going to whichever side of the field he's not on seems like a good idea. I think we see a lot of back shoulder type throws to the wide side of the field in hopes of PI or contested catches IU's WR's have been so good at this year. The other way to combat an attacking defense is with the screen game. But OSU gets so much of their pressure from their base defense and without blitzing that I'm not sure we'll see much of that in this game...Unless Patricia wants to go the Iowa / PSU route and blitz on over 50% of drop backs. However, in their four "biggest" games (Texas, Illinois, Washington and Michigan), OSU has not blitzed more than 29% of the time and was between 23%-29%. That's what makes this defense so tough to sustain drives against. They get to you with the base and let their soon to be NFL guys in the back 7 make plays. I think making them commit to blitzing is actually a way to open up the defense a little. It might mean keeping a TE in to block but I'm not really sure what else you can do. OSU simply doesn't give up big plays...at all. No team has successfully opened up this defense yet. So, can IU run on OSU? I think they're going to have to try. I think they're going to have to pass to set up the run because of how good OSU is up front but I also think that Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are an elite 1-2 punch and more formidable than the duo of Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison in '24 (and nothing against those guys...they're great). Both can break tackles, both typically fall forward and both can make big plays. Hemby and Black are tied for 51st with 11 15+ yard runs each this year and have combined to run for 83 1st downs. The counter to that is that LB's Reece, Sonny Styles and Payton Pierce are all really good run defenders and basically don't miss tackles. In watching OSU's defense, I think that might stand out the most. They don't miss tackles. I still think IU will more success on the ground than many think because TE Riley Nowakowski is an elite blocker for a TE. If IU has their full compliment of OL and they have Nowakowski helping out (and potentially a 6th OL), I'm hoping IU can have more success than other teams. My guess is IU tries to soften them up inside (not a real gameplan to win) and then tries to get to the edges where their best run blockers are (Nowakowski, Carter Smith and Kahlil Benson). Keys for IU's offense #Heismendoza needs to show out Keep Mendoza upright Run behind your best run blockers...on the edges Attack OSU's CB's near the sideline or on back shoulder throws Stay healthy It ain't broke, so I ain't fixing it - As the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti once said: GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!

The Reactionary Preview: The B1G Title Game – IUFB vs Ohio State

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