I have to be honest…I care much more about IU beating a conference opponent to get to 12-0 and a birth in Indianapolis for the B1G title game on December 6th than winning The Bucket.
But guess what! We get both things if IU wins at Purdue on Friday!
It was pretty fun watching other teams who’ve played less games catch up to the 11 that IU has played this weekend. It turns out that teams that IU played recently…Are actually not that bad!
Wisconsin beat #21 Illinois and is 2-2 in their stretch of @ Oregon, Washington, @ IU and Illinois. Penn State dominated 7-3 (now 7-4) Nebraska. The game was never close.
All that to say that maybe IU’s recent opponents weren’t DOA as many had suggested. The “struggle” in the first half with Wisconsin might be because their defense is playing very well. Maybe not being able to step on the throat of Penn State was because the metrics are actually more right (19th in FPI) than wrong.
But IU is on to Purdue and I’ll break down the match up in this weeks Reactionary Preview for the Old Oakan Bucket game.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @jordanjamie!
#2 IU vs Purdue — 730PM ET / 630PM CT — NBC
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 10-10
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 45-10
Pure mid from me betting on IU this season.
ESPN’s matchup predictor gives IU a 97% chance to win and SP+ gives IU a 98% chance to win. I don’t care that it’s Purdue…IU getting those kind of numbers on the road for a conference opponent will never not be jarring to me after the insanity my fandom has been through with this university.
SP+ sees this as 43-9 and I tend to agree. I’ve said this before, I always just look at the spread, write down what I think the score will be and then check SP+ to see what they’re it’s model is feeling. Obviously this model spits out weird numbers as 43-9 seems like an insane “scoragami” type number but I think it will be very close to that.
We’ll get into the breakdown later in the article but we saw that when HC Curt Cignetti wants to prove a point, he’s going to prove a point.
I distinctly remember this summer when Purdue HC Barry Odom made a statement on radio regarding IU cancelling a series with Virginia and cannot help but think Cignetti, after a bye week and after Purdue was pummeled by Washington, might be in the “proving a point” mood again.
I do think this vintage of Purdue has shown a bunch more fight under Odom than former HC Ryan Walters. From watching their games, they definitely have more athletes. I like some of the things they do on both sides of the ball but they just don’t score enough points and their defense is just way too porous, especially in the passing game, for me to think they’re going to threaten to win, let alone pose a real threat…
…but this is the bucket game and I’ve seen an awful lot of weird stuff happen in these games to know that this cannot be taken for granted.
For the final week of the regular season, I’m taking IU to cover and the OVER.
I wanted to switch it up a bit and just show IU side by side on the advanced metrics. You can see just how much better IU is in the typical success rates and EPA (estimated points added) metrics. I think it’s easier to see visually to see just how far apart these teams actually are.
Despite some of the punditry regarding IU slowing down, IU is still firmly in the top 5 in both rushing and passing in terms of success rate and being weighed down from being that high on defense because of the two Colton Joseph runs for 150+ yards in game one and then the blown coverage TD’s that have kind of plagued the ’25 IU defense, unlike it did in ’24.
When IUFB is on Defense
It’s very hard to look at these numbers and not think that Purdue is in real trouble…and the offense is better than the defense. Purdue just doesn’t score points…or do much of anything. I did this with Wisconsin to highlight their ineptitude but I have to do it again here.
Overall: 349.3 ypg (96th in FBS)
Passing: 215.3 ypg (84th)
Rushing: 134.0 ypg (94th)
Scoring: 20.2 ppg (118th)
Another big problem for Purdue is that their offense loves to turn the ball over. They have 12 INT’s and 7 fumbles lost, good for 128th (out of 136) in FBS with a -10 turnover margin.
I’m going to start with Purdue’s running game, which, if you look at these numbers, has been really good, especially given how badly their passing attack has struggled.
Wanted to give a shout out to RB Devin Mockobee. The senior from Boonville, IN’s career came to an end early this season because of injury and he finished just 17 yards shy of 3000 for his career. Always admired how hard he ran (146 career Missed Tackles Forced in 624 career attempts) even behind a bad OL most of the time. I know they’re different styles but both have a similar number of attempts…the 146 MTF’s by Mockobee is 27 more than IU RB Roman Hemby in nearly identical amount of attempts in their careers.
That out of the way, I also like RB Antonio Harris. In his last three games (Michigan, OSU, Washington), he’s been pretty impressive given how stout those defenses are against the run going for 3.6 ypc…the problem is that he hasn’t forced a single missed tackle in those games. And IU’s LB’s will surely be up around the LOS given that Purdue is likely going to at minimum have sophomore QB Malachi Singleton play a decent amount given the struggles of sophomore QB Ryan Browne in the passing game. Both Browne and Singleton will be used in the running game but Singleton, especially, is a much better runner at this point in his career than passer and brings the beef at 6’1, 235.
I don’t think it matters who is running the ball. Purdue’s OL grades out as 108th in run blocking by PFF and 93rd in rushing yards per game (133 ypg). IU is 8th in run defense grade and 4th in rushing yards allowed (82.5 ypg).
I don’t really care who or how Purdue is running the ball…IU’s rush defense will be ready for them. IU has 7 fumble recoveries of their own this year so maybe we see Purdue cough one up.
I anticipate big tackling days for LB’s Rolijah Hardy, Aidan Fisher and Isaiah Jones. In the previous 3 games against top B1G competition, the top 2 tacklers on each team were LB’s and in most cases it wasn’t very close.
So how will Purdue try to open it up for their run game? It appears as though they’re going to with a combo of Ryan Browne and Malachi Singleton. Both QB’s are better when not using play action per PFF, which is one spot where IU has been beaten deep lately. I suspect they safety room will be dialed in here.
Neither has been particularly impressive despite having, in theory, some very nice weapons on the outside in USC transfer WR Michael Jackson and Georgia transfer WR Nitro Tuggle. Both are good players but neither have been very dynamic. They’ve combined for just 5 total TD’s despite catching 86 passes between them.
It also doesn’t help that Purdue’s OL has struggled so badly in pass blocking (118th by PFF). Now, in watching some of their games, I do feel like they have some talent there, but yeah…it’s not been good. It doesn’t really show up in the sack numbers but they have allowed 132 pressures, including a whopping 59 and 14 penalties against OT’s Joey Tanona and Bakyne Coly. IU will be attacking these two relentlessly with the likes of DE Mikail Kamara (if healthy…he’s supposed to be healthy but would the rest hurt him), DE Stephen Daley and the LB’s.
I suspect IU will do what they always do: drop back in zone, bring sim pressures on whoever is under center and see if they can force the QB to make the same mistakes they’ve been making all season and put the ball in harms way. I’m expecting a couple turnovers for IU’s defense in the game. Forcing Purdue to go the entire length of the field is just something their offense seems incapable of doing against the top of the league.
IUFB’s Defensive Keys
- Make Purdue’s QB’s attempt to win the game through the air.
- Let the LB’s eat in the run game.
- Force Purdue’s QB’s to make decisions quickly in the pocket with sim pressures to limit big plays.
- Attack the edges.
- Make Purdue drive the ball down the field.
- Get some turnovers from a team that’s -10 on the year.
- STAY HEALTHY!
I expect a huge day from IU’s offense, especially through the air. Purdue has been so bad at literally everything and even the things they’re good at…they’re not that good at like EPA/rush.
I’m putting it out there right now, the forecast looks like another cold game (low to mid 30s) but clear and not much wind at Ross-Ade, I think Fernando Mendoza throws for 250+ and 3 TD’s in his final regular season game and the duo of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black run for 150+ combined and 2 TD’s.
Again, this isn’t being cocky…I’m just looking at the numbers and the numbers just aren’t good at all.
Once again, IU is #1 in the nation in average 3rd down distance going against a team that’s 119th on defense in that same category. This is why IU has been able to be so ruthlessly efficient all season. They’re just perpetually in 3rd and manageable and it means you still have to defend the run and the pass.
For Purdue to have any chance in this game, they’re going to have to get to Fernando Mendoza. Problem is, they just don’t get a ton of pressure. Purdue has 149 pressures on 737 total snaps (this includes runs) for a 20% pressure rate. To put that in context, IU has only had 611 total snaps on defense but has 214 pressures for a 35% pressure rate (side note: if anyone can figure out how to isolate how many total pass rushing snaps a team has on PFF, please @ me).
LB CJ Nunnally and DE Mani Powell are the two big pressure guys for Purdue and each have a respectable 5 sacks. Purdue is 53rd in sack rate and has 24 on season. They can get after you if you’re not careful.
We don’t really know how healthy IU will be but Purdue would be wise to stay away from All American candidate LT Carter Smith. Just watching some of their games and looking at PFF, I would attack them up the middle in the run game. Purdue’s iDL’s are not that adept in run defense and they rely on pretty much everyone else to clean up the runners.
In the secondary, Purdue is pretty poor except for CB Smiley Bradford. He’s been pretty good this year with a 79 coverage grade by PFF and 5 PBU’s and an INT. I would be attacking CB’s Hudauri Hines and Tony Grimes who have given up 1130 yards receiving combined.
My hunch is we see a heavy dose of passing and depending on the health of WR Elijah Sarratt (Sarratt is supposed to play but you never know), I think we see WR’s Omar Cooper, Charlie Becker and EJ Williams have some big days as Purdue tries to keep the big plays from happening. I suspect they’re going to be attempting to do what other teams have done with tight press coverage on the outside. We’ll see if that works for them.
The problem is that Purdue just doesn’t force turnovers and I would be shocked if the best turnover margin team in the nation, IU, who’s only turned it over 7 total times on the season, will start doing that in this game.
Most of all on both sides…just don’t get hurt.
IUFB’s Offensive Keys
- Keep Mendoza clean.
- Let the WR group go to work.
- Attack anyone but Smiley Bradford in the secondary.
- Get some takeaways.
- STAY HEALTHY.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it…In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti…GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!
Let’s bring the bucket back to Bloomington again.