IUFB is 11-0 for the first time in school history with a chance to have a perfect season in two weeks in West Lafayette against Purdue.
I picked IU to finish 9-3 this season. Vegas had the number at 8.5. We were both wrong.
And I couldn’t be more glad to have been wrong.
IU’s 31-7 win against a suddenly non dead Wisconsin team (more on this in a bit) wasn’t without it’s share of drama. Mainly, Wisconsin playing Wisconsin football…running the ball, chewing up clock and limiting IU’s offense to just 10 possessions.
But IU came out in the second half humming and pushed a 10-7 lead out to the eventual final score and saw QB Fernando Mendoza throw for 4 TD’s to break QB Kurtis Rourke’s single season passing touchdown number with 30. And there’s still a game to go.
We’ll break it all down on this week’s Reactionary Take!
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 35-3
Final Score: IU 31-7 — Wisconsin COVERS / UNDER 43.5
Season Betting Record: 10-10
Pure mid.
I can’t seem to break the curse. I wrote that this might be a 28-3 game, which would have won me the Wisconsin side and then I talked myself back into the extra TD to still keep the under but have IU cover.
I knew this game would be shortened but I guess I didn’t realize that IU would only have the ball once in the first quarter due to said game shortening by Wisconsin.
But I think people have a little bit of a misconception of how this game actually went.
Outside of Wisconsin’s opening 7:39, 13 play drive (that finished with a missed 46 yard FG) and a nicely called 8 play, 79 yard drive that ended with a sneaky, 45 yard pass to a leaked out TE from play action on 4th and 1 to tie it 7-7 in the second quarter, IU held Wisconsin to 41 total yards on their other 8 drives.
That means that 76% of their offensive production came on two drives, both in the first half.
Wisconsin had just one 1st down in the second half.
That was the game I thought we’d see IU play…But, if you look at the advanced stats from the game, 31-7 doesn’t really do the final score justice.
IU had their way with Wisconsin, despite what the pundits may say. I said in my preview that Wisconsin had a sneaky good pass rush and limited explosive plays…That’s essentially what we saw (sorry for patting myself on the back but…).
IU controlled this game from a statistical perspective (as you can see below) and, while I was annoyed a bit that they weren’t passing more, rolled in basically every single offensive and defensive metric, including being +2 in turnovers…again (they’re now +15 on the season which is #1 in the FBS).
And, once again, IU was a 3rd down juggernaut. They’re so good at getting into 3rd and manageable that it’s just so hard to get them off the field…71% success rate on 3rd down is crazy efficient.
Scoring points, limiting opposing teams success rate and not turning it over is a very good way to get to 11-0…
Fernando Mendoza
I’ve been trying to start out with guys that are less heralded but how can I not start with the lovable Fernando who now owns the IU single season passing TD record with 30…and he still has one game left against a pretty mediocre passing that has seen numerous big games against it in Purdue.
Mendoza was surgical in this one. He finished with just two (2) incompletions on the day, going 22/24 for 299 yards (12.1 ypa) and 4 TD’s.
After a so-so first half, on the opening drive of the second half, on a 3rd and 8 at the IU 27, Mendoza uncorked a 48 yard dime to Charlie Becker (more on him later) down the seam…that throw, and eventual Holden Staes two yard TD catch, pushed the lead to 17-7 and IU was never threatened again.
I know this feels like that Obama meme of him putting the medal on himself, but the passing game was where I knew IU would have the most success. As I said in my preview, Wisconsin’s run defense and pressure up front has done more than enough for them to be .500.
Hell, over the last 3 games (@ Oregon, vs Washington and @ IU), teams with a combined 26-4 record, Wisconsin had 14 sacks. They have the athletes up front to challenge just about anyone.
Mendoza took a couple sacks that I was surprised he didn’t throw away in this one but I think there may have been a directive to just eat it an not risk an INT like has happened with him in a couple games recently where he’s pressured and makes a throw that he probably shouldn’t make…that or he just wanted to have a 90%+ completion rate…I kid, I kid.
Big picture, it seems like Mendoza and OSU QB Julian Sayin are in a two horse race now for the Heisman (after the Alabama/Ty Simpson loss) which will probably be decided in the B1G championship game. I know Sayin is a PFF darling, has an 80.1% completion rate to go along with 2675 yards and a 25/4 TD/INT ratio, but Mendoza is right there too (73% completion rate, 2641 yards, 30/5 TD/INT).
What puts Mendoza over the top for me though is the rushing totals. Sayin simply isn’t a runner. PFF has Sayin for 28 non sack carries for just 39 yards (1.4 ypc) and 0 TD’s, while Mendoza has 56 non sack carries for 244 yards (4.4 ypc) and 5 TD’s. That gives Mendoza ten more total TD’s than Sayin.
We can’t forget that Mendoza has only played significant snaps in five of IU’s 4th quarters this season because they’ve been up by so much. I can’t help but think what his stats would be if he was just letting it rip the entire game even when up 50…We also saw Julian Sayin throw 42 times against Wisconsin in a game they won 34-0.
All that to say that it’s a close race. I guess the homer in me has Mendoza because I think he’s done just as much with less talent, but Heisman is a popularity contest and if he lays a dud in that B1G title game, he will be on the Heisman stage but he won’t be winning.
Regardless, Fernando is a great kid and the likely QB1 in the NFL Draft next April. A very exciting time for him, his family and the fans at IU to have a kid with this level of talent come through the program and do something truly historic.
Charlie Becker
We’re seeing a former Tom Allen commit blossom right before our eyes. If it weren’t for the potential Heisman winner being on the team, I’d have mentioned Becker first for the second week in a row.
In the absence of injured All America candidate Elijah Sarratt for the second straight week, Becker went off, doing his best Sarratt impression.
Becker caught 5 of his 6 targets for 108 yards (21.6 ypc) and a brilliant contested catch TD in coverage. In the last 2 games he’s 4/4 on contested catches per PFF (6/7 CTT on the season) and has an aDOT (average depth of target) of 17.4. He also showed brilliant long speed on his 48 yard seam route catch, blowing by the CB and then got blasted by the safety and still made the catch.
The kid is has been a true, elite deep threat in his short time getting a lot of PT and IU probably isn’t winning either the PSU game or this game, at least this one as handily as it did, without him going off.
Becker doesn’t have the targets to qualify for the 20% of the 127 targets I typically use but if he did, he’d be 16th in PFF receiving grade (83.7), two spots behind his teammates Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt who are tied 13th at 84.0.
It’s nice that Mendoza has an absolutely loaded WR room to throw to and Becker, just a true sophomore, has a very valid claim to be WR1 going into ’26 for whoever IU has lining up under center.
Stephen Daley
In a game where All American Mikail Kamara came off the field with a shoulder injury after just 8 snaps, IU needed Daley to step up and he did.
Daley had 4 tackles (all 4 counting as “Stops” by PFF — tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense), 3 TFL’s and a FF that kind of turned the tide in the second half.
IU went up 17-7, stopped Wisconsin but then were stopped themselves, with IU playing a bit more conservatively than they typically do. On 3rd an 9, Daley chased down Wisconsin QB Carter Smith forcing a fumble and a recovery by IU at the Wisconsin 27 yard line. IU would score on the next play with a pass from Mendoza to TE Riley Nowkowski to put IU up 24-7 and essentially end the game.
With DE Kellan Wyatt done for the year and Kamara nursing a shoulder injury (thank god for the bye week and Purdue being the last game), IU needs Daley to take on the role he did Saturday as disrupter.
And Daley’s now up to 13.5 TFL’s, tops in the B1G and 11th in the nation, to go along with being tied for 37th in the nation with 32 pressures among DE’s despite playing just 409 snaps on the season (which is 50-100 less than most of the top DE’s).
Wanted to mention Daniel Ndukwe here because he needs more than a “quick hit” but not a full write up. Ndukwe was pretty active with his career high 36 snaps opposite Daley. I was kind of keying on him once I realized Kamara was out but I was impressed. He finished with an above average 69.8 PFF overall grade that would have been better if not for a bad coverage grade. I don’t remember him being bad in coverage at all, even on my rewatch. Still, he was credited with 4 tackles and a TFL. He’s a raw athlete still and needs to continue to get stronger and add pass rush moves but man is his first step off the snap impressive.
My guess is that we don’t see Kamara in two weeks at Purdue as he rests up for the B1G title game and, if that’s the case, we’ll see a lot of Ndukwe so it was important for him to have a good showing in his first extended snaps.
IUFB Injuries
Speaking of Kamara going down, it wasn’t just him. IU has played six straight tough, physical, hard fought conference games in a row without a break and it can’t come soon enough.
Just from watching, it seems like there are a ton of guys with bumps and bruises. Kamara came out of this one early. RB Kaelon Black looked like he was dealing with a stinger possibly and was outcarried 9-6 by Khobie Martin as Roman Hemby‘s direct back up.
I was going to do a write up on the OL but figured it would be better to explain it in here because I think the injuries up front are causing extra pressures in the pass and run games. RT Kahlil Benson hasn’t looked right in nearly a month and LG Drew Evans, a lynch pin in pass protection, has been out for two straight weeks. RS Freshman Adedamola Ajani has filled in admirably for Evans but it’s very hard to replace the chemistry Evans has with LT Carter Smith and C Pat Coogan. I’m not sure there is a position that needs the rest more than these guys.
Hopefully, IU can heal up a bit during this bye week and even rest some of their more dinged up guys against Purdue as the game of the year, if both teams get there undefeated, would be #1 OSU vs #2 IU in Indy for the B1G title and probable Heisman defining game the first week of December.
IUFB Quick Hits
- IU’s offense has played 149 more snaps than it’s defense this year (688 to 539). Incredibly complimentary football.
- IU went over 5000 yards of total offense (5258 to be exact), behind just Ole Miss and Texas Tech.
- IU is also the highest scoring team, points wise, this season with 476 (43.3 ppg), 7 ahead of Texas Tech.
- S Devan Boykin is .1 ahead o Sf D’Angelo Ponds for the top PFF grade on defense. He continues to be very good (had an INT in this game) and yet still flies under the radar on this defense.
- LT Carter Smith is 2nd in FBS in pass blocking grade by PFF (93.9) and 4th in overall PFF grade (87.9), while allowing just 5 pressures in 722 snaps (an absurd .7% pressure rate). He’s a machine.
- QB Fernando Mendoza is 4th in the nation in passing grade under pressure (69.6)…Former IU QB Brendan Sorsby continues to pace the sport with an awesome 78.9 passing grade under pressure.