We can all breathe a collective sigh of relief as IU won probably their last true huge test while battling injuries and inconsistency to get to 10-0.
10-0 people…
But let’s go 1-0 this week, shall we?
IU hosts a battered and bruised Wisconsin team who’s looking like they’re down to about their 4th QB but who got a big home win against a good Washington team in Madison last week.
IU really needs a rest themselves this is the last game before their final bye and they have several injuries that have lingered in this long stretch between bye weeks.
We’ll break down the key match ups and I’ll explain what IU is going to have to do to get back on track on both sides of the ball.
#2 IU vs Wisconsin — 1200PM ET / 1100AM CT — BTN
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 9-9
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 35-3
SP+ gives IU a 98% win probability. ESPN’s FPI gives IU a 97% win probability.
With the injuries that Luke Fickell’s team has at QB, I just can’t see them mustering enough offense to cover here.
SP+ has this at 41-6 and maybe they’re able to run a little bit, but I will be pretty shocked if IU doesn’t have 7+ man boxes on basically every single snap.
I pick my score for this one before I even look at SP+ just because I want to see if I’m looking objectively and I really feel like maybe IU dials it back, but also still can move the ball, while Wisconsin just can’t sustain drives.
Watch this be the damn game where IU pulls back and wins 28-3 or something. It would make sense because I keep having IU covering and the under and losing both.
Ok, I talked myself back into IU covering and the UNDER after doing this entire deep dive.
For this week, I’m going to take IU and the UNDER.
When IU is on defense
Just look at these numbers for Wisconsin’s offense this season…
Overall: 255.6 yards per game (135th in FBS)
Passing: 140.6 ypg (130th)
Rushing: 115.0 ypg (116th)
Scoring: 12.6 ypg (134th)
These are almost unfathomable numbers from a P4 team, let alone a team with the resources and talent that Wisconsin has on their roster.
To add insult to injury, Wisconsin is also 117th in turnover margin at -6.
With Billy Edwards and Danny O’Neill both hurt and Hunter Simmons ineffective, HC Luke Fickell turned to true freshman Carter Smith (no, not IU’s Carter Smith). Smith was a composite 4* in the last cycle and held reported offers from Michigan, Florida, FSU, Miami, PSU and many others. The 6’3, 200 QB did enroll early so he does have a leg up in terms of have more time than the typical freshman to get to know the offense.
The problem is that he was just 3/12 for 8 yards (.7 ypa!!) against a good Washington team at home in the sleet. He did run 15 times for 47 (3.1 ypc) and a TD. He’s going to have to rely heavily on his legs if and also complete a lot more than 33% of his passes if Wisconsin wants a chance to in this game. The weather wasn’t great but his OL was again pretty bad. They rank 85th in pass blocking by PFF.
IU’s main focus is going to likely be trying to force Smith to beat you through the air. Regardless of how last week at PSU played out through the air with Ethan Grunkemeyer, He still barely threw for more than 200 yards and most of those game on three straight drives as IU tried to ice away the game with too much time left.
I liked the moxie of Smith, but with his OL and lack of a true run game, it’s just hard for me to see how IU doesn’t make his life very hard in his first road start. His main weapons on the outside are WR Vinnie Anthony and TE Lance Mason. Both are solid but I can’t really give you any nicer adjective when whoever seems to line up at QB, can’t seem to get you the football.
For me, it’s just really hard to see this Wisconsin team doing much of anything. Typically, if Wisconsin’s passing game is ineffective, their run game isn’t…But they’re 116th in rushing yards per game too.
It looks like redshirt freshman battering ram Gideon Ituka will get the start in the backfield. I liked how hard he ran against Washington in getting 68 of his 73 yards after contact but the Wisconsin run blocking has been flat out bad, ranked a whopping 110th in PFF grade.
As I said above, I expect IU to have lots of guys in the box and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mario Landino spend some time playing SDE to give IU more size up front against the run. I expect DC Bryant Haines to attack the freshman QB with sim pressures like he did with Maryland QB Malik Washington. That has a way of rattling even veteran QB’s but with how raucous the IU crowd should be with their team looking to get to 11-0, making Smith as uncomfortable as possible should lead to some turnovers if Wisconsin tries to throw it.
IU had some issues with explosive plays in the Penn State game. Was that because they were trying to salt the game away and prevent big plays? Either way, lets try to not allow those to an inept offense like Wisconsin.
I don’t expect this to be a nail biter but IU needs to just keep people healthy and get out of this game with a win and head into the bye week for more rest.
So when IU is on defense
- Force the freshman QB to make bad decisions
- Dare Wisconsin to throw
- Punish Wisconsin’s weak OL
- IU had issues with explosive plays vs PSU, lets not do that again
- STAY HEALTHY GOING INTO THE BYE
When IU is on offense
Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t been bad at all.
I think IU’s going to have to work to score points. In their first conference win last week against a very explosive Washington team, they held them to 10 total points. IU probably isn’t going to come out and just go up and down the field.
DC Mike Tressel‘s bunch has been much better against the run (111.4 ypg – 26th in FBS) than the pass (219.6 ypg – 68th) while giving up just 22.6 ppg (51st). They clearly haven’t given up even with the murders row schedule they’ve faced and even have some youngsters stepping up in big ways.
I’m actually very interested to see what HC Curt Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan cook up here. I was impressed when watching Wisconsin against Washington but also earlier in the year against Alabama. If Wisconsin could have moved the ball at all on offense, their defense was really disciplined against QB Ty Simpson and one of the best WR corps in college football.
IU’s run game has been so good this year that they’re probably going to try to get that going to soften up the pass defense. But I might go the other way: Use the pass to open up the run. That’s what I see when looking at the raw numbers and having watched some of their games.
I expect some big collisions with the IU backs and two true freshman LB’s Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano. Those two along with elite edge rusher and run defender Mason Reiger and iDL Ben Barton have all been very good defending the run this year.
This is a team that has 188 “Stops” (tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense) in 552 snaps this year. For comparison’s sake, IU has one of the best defenses in the nation and they have 247 Stops in 566 snaps. A big difference but given how rough Wisconsin’s season has been, they can still make plays.
They also get after the QB. They’re 45th in sack rate (2.33/game). PFF has them as the 39th best pass rushing team in the nation but just 101st in coverage grade. Wisconsin has three players with 3 to 3.5 sacks (the Mason’s…Mason Reiger and Mason Posa to go along with EDGE Sebastian Cheeks). They also have 11 players who’ve recorded at least one sack.
If IU’s Drew Evans-less OL can give Fernando Mendoza the time, he should be able to pick Wisconsin apart just like Ty Simpson did for Alabama after a bit of a slow start. Getting the ball out quickly should be a priority, as it typically is for IU, but I am very interested to see who lines up at LG. It was freshman Adedamola Ajani last week after swing G/T Zen Michalski was hobbled in practice and didn’t get the reps to start at PSU.
IU’s still the #1 team in the country on offense in average 3rd down distance at just 5.30. Wisconsin is #37 in that same stat for defense and a lot of that is because of how good their run defense is. I expect IU to try to establish the run like they always do and take their shots with the pass game when they have a favorable match up they like on the outside.
I’ll keep saying this, but Wisconsin’s defense isn’t the reason they’re losing games. Their defense doesn’t give up many explosive plays (81st percentile) and typically keeps everything in front of them. They’ve done more than enough to be a .500 team if they had any help from their offense so IU needs to take that seriously and I think they will.
So when IU is on offense
- Live in 3rd and manageable
- Use the pass to set up the run?
- Protect Mendoza from a sneaky good pass rush
- Methodical drives
- STAY HEALTHY GOING INTO THE BYE
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it…In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti: GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!