What a big win.
It looked like IU was going to cruise a win when they went up 20-7 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.
IU seemed like they took their foot off the gas a bit and in the blink of an eye, IU was down 24-20 late in the 4th quarter to a Penn State team that played in the second half like the preseason #2 team in the nation.
And then IU QB Fernando Mendoza went 80 yards with the boys, capped off by one of the best toe tap catches you’ll ever see by WR Omar Cooper, on what could have been a Heisman winning moment for IU’s QB.
I don’t care what the pundits or the OSU fans or the Twitter crew says, Curt Cignetti‘s bunch gutted out a 27-24 win while missing numerous starters at key positions on the road at a place they had never won in the history of the school and got to 10-0 for the second straight season.
To put some history behind that, IU hadn’t been 10-0 at any point in the previous 136 seasons of football until HC Curt Cignetti took over and has now done it twice in a row.
The fan base can (hopefully) breathe a big sigh of relief as the last big test on the road is over and IU should be a comfortable favorite in the final two games against Wisconsin (home) and at Purdue.
We’ll break it all down on this weeks Reactionary Take…
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 38-10
Final Score: IU 27-24 — PSU COVERS -14 and OVER 50.5
Season Betting Record: 9-9
Back to .500 on the year.
Man, I had been taking the under because I thought teams would start slowing the games down and the over hits again.
That and IU barely winning, let alone covering, sunk me.
I’ll take 9-9 at this point because IU is still 10-0 but I’ve been hovering around .500 for the year and I thought I had a chance to take a strangle hold in this one.
I thought PSU’s only chance was to take the air out of the ball and I was feeling very good about my picks when IU cruised to a 20-7 lead while have a an INT and a fumble recovery.
But then IU seemed try to play some prevent offense and defense and nearly lost because of it (more on this later).
I was very frustrated by the lack of urgency during the game but after watching it back, IU’s OL had some major problems up front in the second half (outside of the final drive) with a very talented DL that was pinning their ears back and PSU’s duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicolas Singleton are really darn good. That, plus PSU redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer has real talent and showed off a good arm…Something we hadn’t seen from him in his previous games at Iowa and at OSU.
Let me put it this way: If Penn State plays like they played on Saturday the rest of the way, I could see them winning out (@ MSU, vs Nebraska, @ Rutgers) and making a bowl game.
Let’s break it down some of the things I liked and some that I didn’t…When I first started my blog during the Tom Allen era, I did “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly”. There was always a ton of ugly and not enough good…
I think there was a lot of good mixed in with some not so good so we’ll address that here.
Charlie Becker
Preseason I thought Charlie Becker was going to be playing a lot more than he has. Coming into the PSU game, Becker had just 7 catches for a very healthy 157 yards (22.4 ypc) but really hadn’t been a target through the air unless Elijah Sarratt went out. He was being used as almost his direct back up.
And, well, Elijah Sarratt tried to give it a go in this one and couldn’t because of a leg injury.
I’ll get to Fernando Mendoza later, but Charlie Becker is my player of the game. He made amazing catch after amazing catch, showed tremendous chemistry with his roommate (yes, Becker lives with both Mendoza’s)and awesome ball skills going 3 for 3 on contested catches to finish with 7 catches overall for 118 yards (16.8 ypc) and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 17.3.
Becker showed all the tools we thought we’d have seen already in the game. He was a downfield menace showing athleticism when high pointing the ball, knowing exactly where he was on the field in getting a foot down on an amazing catch on the last drive on the near sideline and showing skills after the catch on his big 53 yard catch earlier in the game.
Very proud of this kid and very excited to see what the 6’4 true sophomore can do in the future as the former Tom Allen commit looks to be the future on the outside at WR for IU.
Fernando Mendoza
The numbers classic numbers won’t do justice to just how good Fernando Mendoza was in this game. He finished just 19/30 for 218 yards (7.3 ypa) with one TD and one very costly INT. He added 3 carries for 37 yards (12.3 ypc – not counting sack yardage) for another TD.
With 10:47 left in the 4th, with IU leading 20-17, Mendoza snuck out the right side and tried to hit EJ Williams with a throw on the sideline and Penn State safety King Mack broke on the ball from the hash and made a brilliant INT at the IU 44 yard line.
Penn State promptly went down and scored a TD to put them up 24-20.
IU did absolutely nothing on the ensuing drive (4 plays, punt) and unless IU’s defense could stop PSU, something that hadn’t happened on their previous 3 drivers (FG, TD, TD), it looked like Mendoza might not get a shot…But IU’s defense rose to the occasion and got the stop.
That set up the best drive in IU history orchestrated by the Heisman front runner.
With no timeouts, and after a sack on first down, Mendoza methodically moved his team down the field 87 yards with dime after dime as every receiver got involved.
PSU blitzed on 50% of his drop backs and also had pressure on 50% of his drop backs. PFF credited him with 5 BTT (big time throws) with three of them coming when he was under pressure.
To put that in perspective, Mendoza had just 9 BTT’s coming into the game (we can argue what a big time throw is until we’re blue in the face) and never had more than two in any game this year…until Saturday when he had 5.
On the final TD to Cooper on 3rd down, he hung in the pocket until the last second and made an absurd jump throw as he was getting hit by two guys.
I wasn’t a fan before I became a student in the early 2000s but even with the Penix reach, this was the biggest play in IU football history…The catch was amazing but just getting the throw off was equally as impressive.
If IU can make the B1G title game it seems almost a forgone conclusion that that game could determine who wins the Heisman…Mendoza or Julian Sayin. Given the relative strength of each teams entire rosters, I’m not as impressed with Sayin as others but he’s not making mistakes and OSU keeps destroying people with their defense.
What a remarkable season for Mendoza and something I thought he was capable of but didn’t know he would have these iconic drives with such pressure on the line and he’d just make play after play. First against Iowa, then Oregon and now at PSU.
He’s an absolute warrior.
Omar Cooper
I think “The Catch” speaks for itself. Incredible body control, leaping ability and awareness. Sunday play that will probably be seeing on Sunday after this season.
However, that catch obscured a pretty middling game for Cooper numbers wise. He had 6 catches but that was for 32 yards (5.3 ypc).
A lot of that was because IU continued to hammer the WR screen game. I was a bit surprised that IU kept going back to it over and over because it clearly wasn’t working on the edges without the blocking of Sarratt and with the speed PSU has in the secondary.
But, like the whole team, he made the plays (including a big 22 yard catch to get a 1st down after the sack on the final drive) when it mattered most.
Side note: It’s really strange that IU has totally abandoned the middle screen game this year. They had a huge play with it against Illinois to TE Riley Nowakowski (more on him a bit later) and I’m not sure we’ve seen it since. I know the screen game has been good to the outside with the WR’s, but with how aggressive teams are being blitzing, using the backs or the middle screens to the WR or TE seems like a pretty good way to slow the rush down a little. It was something that was so effective l last year with Ke’Shawn Williams…I guess they don’t have a true slot anymore that they feel comfortable using it with.
Mikail Kamara
Another game where Mikail Kamara‘s stats won’t on the surface won’t blow you away but, as I rewatched the game, Kamara was everywhere and I immediately checked in with PFF to see if I was right.
Kamara ended the day with 2 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 Stop (tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense) but he was in the backfield all day. PFF had him for 8 pressures and that seemed a bit light to me.
He was brilliant on stunts and is helped out by playing with absolute studs inside like Tyrique Tucker. IU pressured QB Ethan Grunkemeyer on 45.7% of his drop backs per PFF…I looked twice at that because I think a lot of that were in the first 2.5 quarters.
I wanted to mention Kamara off the top because I thought IU had a bunch of trouble getting pressure on Grunkemeyer with just four for the most part it appears like they actually did more than I initially thought while I rewatched and the PFF numbers kind of proved it.
But Kamara is starting to finally find his footing again and IU’s going to desperately need him down the stretch with the injuries piling up on this roster.
Just need some of these pressures to lead to sacks.
Rolijah Hardy
Hardy continues to just be better than I thought he would be this year. I loved him last year but was worried about his sideline to sideline speed and athleticism. He’s a bigger body guy, not because of his weight, but being just 5’11.
Hardy can play. He’s a stud LB.
Hardy finished as IU’s highest graded defender by PFF (76.5) while finishing with an absurd 12 tackles, 1 Sack, 1 TFL, 4 Stops and 1 Pressure.
He was all over the place on a day when IU seemingly had much tougher time tackling than they typically do, Hardy was a bright spot finishing, again, with a team high tackling grade of of 86.1 by PFF and missing zero (0) tackles on the day.
The OL
Not everything was good in this game and that gives me a nice segue into talking about the OL.
With Drew Evans sidelined again, IU decided to go with redshirt freshman Adedamola Ajani at LG after the experiment with swing OT Zen Michalski seemed to not really work last week.
Ajani, and RT Kahlil Benson, struggled badly in this game for stretches. Each had a putrid pass blocking grade by PFF of 19.7 (Benson) and 23.4 (Ajani).
For me, I had shades of the Michigan game just after Evans tore his Achilles in practice and Michigan totally confused IU up front with stunts and sim pressures.
IU badly needs Evans back when we’re talking about the B1G title game and beyond but I’d really like to see what Ajani can do not in Beaver Stadium with a very athletic DL who’s giving you their best shot.
But where my concern comes in the most is that it wasn’t just Ajani and Benson.
IU allowed a season high 18 pressures in this game. To put that in perspective, the only other double digit pressure games were Oregon (12) and Iowa (11).
All American candidate LT Carter Smith allowed just his 5th of the season and 3rd in the last 8 weeks. C Pat Coogan also gave up a pressure.
Every single OL gave up at least one pressure with Benson accounting for 7 (!!), Ajani 5, and RG Bray Lynch 3.
Barring something unforeseen, IU should be totally done with road environments Penn State (although PU will be loud) but they also need to continue to get reps together if Evans is going to miss time.
I love Ajani. I think he’s going to be a very good OL. And IU liked him enough to replace a 5th year senior with him…
IU needs to be better up front…They just have to.
Defense, as a whole
Felt like I couldn’t finish this look back without some input from the godfather of advanced metrics Bill Connelly in his week 11 recap:
Connelly still has IU in “Tier 1” just behind OSU. His metrics still very much like IU.
I tweeted this out but once IU got up 20-7 more than halfway through the 3rd quarter, it appeared like IU tried to salt the game away rather than keeping their foot on the gas on both offense…and defense. That is extremely uncharacteristic of an IU team under Cignetti. In fact, they typically do the opposite and choke other teams out right then and there, especially on the defensive side with havoc plays.
PSU had 5 explosive plays (4 pass, 1 run) in the three drives after the FG that put IU up 20-7, while, on offense, IU went 14 plays for 30 yards and an INT in the same stretch.
The score went from 20-7 IU to 24-20 PSU 16 minutes of game time.
Not something to be super concerned about as it’s hard to play on the road, especially in that environment against a team with as much talent as PSU, but seeing a bunch of explosive plays given up by, in my opinion, a top 3 defense when they’re usually at their best pinning their ears back was a bit eyebrow raising.
Quick Hits:
- IU runners finished with a solid 9 missed tackles forced against a very athletic defense.
- IU’s defense missed a season high 10 tackles.
- TE Riley Nowakowski had 3 catches for 51 yards (17 ypc), including a massive 29 yarder on the final drive to put IU deep in PSU territory; He also led IU in run blocking grade (69.1).
- IU allowed 107 YAC which was the second most they’d given up (118 against Maryland).
- After winning the turnover margin 2 to 1 against PSU, IU is now tied for 2nd in the nation in turnover margin at +13.