IU is 9-0.
IU is the first team in the country to get to 9 wins this year.
IU is ranked, again, #2 in the nation with a pretty strong argument to be #1 given just how good they’ve looked by utterly dismantling clearly inferior opponents.
I know that’s two years in a row for IU to get to 9-0 but anyone who’s followed this program longer than the Curt Cignetti era knows just how insane that sounds. “Firsts” in program history are seemingly happening every week and I have still not fully adjusted to this reality.
It’s just still so hard for me to get to the new reality that is “yes, IU is actually just a very good football team and this is what good football teams do”.
What has frustrated me is the narrative still be floated by some, many with a clear agenda favoring a certain conference, that any team IU pummels simply sucks now. We know that if Alabama or *insert blue blood* were doing this, nothing would be questioned about their opponents and, instead, people would be praising said team for proving that they are awesome.
It doesn’t matter that Maryland was a SP+ top 40 team…They’re now just not good because IU destroyed them.
But what’s changed in a good way is that every week I see more and more pundits coming around to the idea that actually, yes, IU is just an elite team.
What IU’s doing is historic for the sport and you can either be on board or not but I think what’s happening at IU or Vanderbilt is actually good for the sport in general. I love that people are fighting for IU online but at this point, who cares?
IU is making a lot of “very smart people” look really stupid and that might be my favorite thing that Curt Cignetti’s bunch have done.
I’m writing this from a hotel in the city of Atlanta so I’m going to do a recap and a preview in the same post. My Sunday wasn’t as typical as it normally is and it’s much harder to get my thoughts down as we’re doing touristy things for much of the day. It’s also lot harder to write using just one screen than I had thought…first world problems I guess.
Back to it.
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 35-13
Final Score: IU 55-10 — IU COVERS -21.5 and OVER 50.5
Season Betting Record: 9-7
Every time I dig into these matchups I get spooked by just how good I think IU is relative to the team they’re playing.
I’ve said this before to friends and fellow fans: I watch and study IU so closely that I think I’m missing something when predicting these games. It’s just very clearly the same PTSD I’ve had for two decades of being tortured by what I thought and what was happening in reality.
Once again, I predicted IU to cover, which was correct. But, also once again, IU covered the O/U by themselves. I was so close to going with the over but when I looked into Maryland’s defense, it scared me a bit. They had been very good at forcing turnovers and had just 5 total turnovers on the season themselves. That made me a bit apprehensive to predict a bigger score because I figured IU would need to force multiple turnovers to get above the over…
…Well, they forced as many turnovers on Saturday (5) as Maryland had given up all year, including one that went for a TD.
And I thought I was going to be spot on…IU started the game with an INT and a punt and Maryland was up 3-0 while IU had not looked very good at all on offense late in the first quarter…And then IU scored on 9 consecutive possessions (if you include the fumble return TD).
So, to recap, I’m a respectable 9-7 on the year but I’ve left a few units out there by not just going with what my gut was telling me.
First, some quick hits and thoughts on Maryland.
The Run Game
IU typically probes defenses to see where the weaknesses are early and that can lead to slow(er) starts to games. Maryland has some legit athletes on it’s defense and a formidable pass rush.
Fernando Mendoza started out this game 1/2 for 3 yards, a sack and an INT on the first two drives.
IU’s running game looked a little shell shocked as well with Zen Michalski filling in for late scratch Drew Evans up front.
As with the passing game, IU’s backs started out with 3 carries for 0 yards (to go along with the -8 from the Mendoza sack).
I wouldn’t say I was worried but if IU’s defense hadn’t been playing so well, that start would have absolutely a cause for concern. IU was pretty lucky to be down just 3-0 after those first two drives considering the INT was brought back inside the IU 10 and the Mitch McCarthy punt on the second drive was caught at the IU 45 yard line.
But this is Curt Cignetti’s IU team.
IU came out and attacked on the third driving using the run to set up the pass and it was capped off by a Fernando Mendoza walk in TD on a brilliant QB draw call where there was no one within 15 yards of him and C Pat Coogan jogging up the middle of the field.
IU finished the game with 52 carries for 357 yards (7.1 ypc) and 4 TD’s on the ground. They had six 15+ yard runs. They had 204 yards after contact, good for a YCO/A (yards after contact per attempt) of 4.16. We’ve heard it before on multiple broadcasts and I’ve written it here for two years…IU’s backs just seem to always fall forward and Saturday was the personification of that.
IU had all three of their backs go for 80+ and each had a TD.
I have to shoutout Kaelon Black who looks like a true 1B runner next to Roman Hemby. Black finished with 14 carries for 110 yards (7.9 ypc) and a TD.
Once the game was in hand, IU brought in RB Khobie Martin, who I call “The Closer” and he looked just as dynamic as the two backs ahead of him.
Being able to lean on teams in the run game just wasn’t something that IU was able to do last year. Even with the injury to Drew Evans and the early struggles from Zen Michalski, once they got it rolling, IU was unstoppable.
One of the most telling signs about how bought in this team is as an actual team, after the game, Fernando Mendoza, in the midst of a Heisman chase, was asked about teams taking away the passing game…“You wanna take away the pass, OK, we’ll run 360-some yards down your throat.”
Takeaways
As I mentioned above, Maryland had just 5 turnovers on offense all season, but they were also forcing a lot of turnovers. Maryland had the best turnover margin of any team in the country coming into Saturday.
That all changed as they forced just one IU turnover while being turned over themselves 5 times.
Even IU’s back ups and freshman were getting in on the act of stripping ball carriers. Devan Boykin had a strip and a return for a TD and then, after the ensuing kick off for Maryland, IU’s Byron Baldwin forced another fumble.
IU also finished with two INT’s, one by ball hawking S Louis Moore on a beautiful read on a Malik Washington deep ball. The other on a brilliant drop out and leaping play by back up LB Kaiden Turner, who appeared to really hurt his leg on the play.
IU’s defense continues to make QB’s very nervous on the pocket. They’re all seemingly very sped up and it leads to bad throws (the first INT) or confusion as to what they’re seeing (the Turner INT).
I really like Malik Washington and how he develops will determine if he’s a 1st round type talent or if he’s simply a guy who will make the league. He’s got all the tools but he’s a true freshman. That showed in this one but we’ve seen that show regardless of age or experience of the QB’s DC Bryant Haines‘ defense has faced.
It’s a credit to Haines and the entire staff that IU can have back ups come into the game (really on both sides of the ball) and pick up right where the starter left off. Everyone knows their jobs and continues to execute at the highest level I’ve ever seen from an IU team.
Quick Hits
- S Jah Jah Boyd made the most of his 6 snaps with two tackles, one of the forced fumbles while getting the highest grade of anyone by PFF with a 95.9 overall grade. Tiny sample but for back ups to come in and play like this is exciting to see.
- S Byron Baldwin continues to be worked back in after missing nearly two months with an injury. He finished with 2 tackles, 1 TFL and a FF in 17 snaps. He did have a rough missed tackle but these are valuable reps as we’re still in “spring training” mode with him after all the time he missed.
- RB Khobie Martin continues to look like he should be getting non garbage time carries finishing with 11 carries for 80 yards (7.3 ypc) and a TD.
- Shout out to a massive tackle by LT Carter Smith for making the INT not a pick six and saving IU 4 points after Maryland kicked a FG. Not only is he one of the best OL in the nation, he doesn’t give up on plays. Oh and he’s also the 8th overall graded OL and 3rd graded pass blocker in the country by PFF
- It’s a meme at this point but I’m not worried about Mikail Kamara. He had 5 pressures in this game and is 20th in the nation among DE’s in pressures with 32 on the year. He’s also 54th in nation in win rate (basically, how many pass rush snaps does he beat the OL). Patience.
- I mentioned Devan Boykin above but he continues to elevate his game as the season goes on. Maybe it’s that he’s feeling better in the scheme or that the rust is being knocked off for missing all of ’24 with a knee injury…Either way, Boykin (listed as a CB by PFF) is 4th in the nation in overall defensive grade among CB’s (88.3) and 2.5 points higher than any CB in rush defense grade (93.9). The kid is on fire.
On to Penn State…Again, I’m on the road so I’m not going to do a massive deep dive here but will get my prediction in and talk a bit about PSU overall.
#2 IU @ Penn State — 1200PM ET / 1100AM CT — FOX
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 9-7
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 38-10
SP+ has this game as as IU -12 with a 77% chance to win (rounded final score of 32-21).
The advanced metrics still really like PSU as FPI has PSU in the top 25 still even though they haven’t beaten a single P4 team this year.
ESPN’s matchup predictor gives IU an 83% chance to win.
I didn’t watch OSU/PSU this weekend as I’ve been traveling but just from reading about the game, it seemed like PSU was in it for a bit before OSU kind of turned on their passing game.
PSU has had atrocious QB play since Drew Allar got hurt so it’s hard for me seeing them actually move the ball down the field through the air.
PSU RB’s Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are a formidable duo running the ball and I do think they will slow the game down, but IU has one of the best rush defenses in the nation. I’m just not sure they’re going to be able to score enough to keep it close.
Both of these defenses are very good against the pass so I just think this will be a game won on the ground which will keep the scoring down.
For this week, I’m taking IU -14 and the UNDER…and will probably get bit again by the O/U.
PSU QB Ethan Grunkmeyer just hasn’t looked capable of actually leading the offense of a good team yet. He’s not devoid of talent by any means. He’s the former 105th overall player in the ’24 class and 7th QB. It’s not really his fault and he shouldn’t be in this position. Drew Allar had a season ending injury and James Franklin got fired.
IU has never won in Happy Valley and so, while I’m not taking anything for granted about a road game against a team with a ton of blue chip talent, IU has just been playing at another level as a team themselves.
The best part about this matchup for IU, as I mentioned above, is that I think we see IU dare Grunkmeyer to beat them. In his first two starts against two very good pass defenses in Iowa (5th in passing defense) and OSU (3rd in passing defense), Grunkmeyer is throwing for just 119 ypg and completing 61% of his passes for zero TD’s and 3 INT’s.
I know those are two elite defenses but so is IU’s. I just have a hard time believing that this is going to be his breakout game considering IU is 18th in passing defense, allowing just 168.3 ypg.
The other thing about IU’s defense is that they’re allowing just 80 ypg on the ground and have given up just 3 rushing TD’s in 9 games. I really like Allen and Singleton. I think they’re going to be leaned on heavily in this game. But this is strength on strength and nothing leads me to believe that PSU will be effective enough running to keep this within two scores.
Again, just like all these teams in the B1G that recruit well…PSU has a ton of athletes on offense and many of them can go off at any time…I’m just not sure they’re going to go off in this one, especially not enough to outscore IU’s offense.
Speaking of IU’s offense…PSU is still only allowing 21.8 ppg. The problem is that they’re 90th in rushing defense allowing 159.4 ypg on the ground and IU is coming off a game at Maryland where they ran for 367 yards. That was 174 more yards than Maryland had given up in a game this season. A Maryland team that, before IU, was 39th in rushing defense.
I’m very interested to see how PSU plays this. They’re pass defense is still very, very good. 14th in the country with just 166.4 ypg good. Like Maryland, they have a very good pass rush led by Chaz Coleman, Zuriah Fisher and Dani Dennis-Sutton. They pair well with elite S Zakee Wheatley and a couple of good, young CB’s who are playing well but not exceptional.
My guess is that they continue to try to keep IU in front of them in the passing game and force IU to rush more than they’d like…Which isn’t a bad thing for IU who has proven they have three very good RB’s. But PSU is going to want to slow the game down as much as possible, limit possessions and get their crowd into it.
It’s really an odd spot to be a two TD favorite going into PSU but here we are and a win would set IU up very nicely to finish (rat poison incoming) 12-0.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it…In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti…GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!