For fans of Indiana University football, postseason predictions have never been more fun. A season ago, the Hoosiers began the 2024 campaign as an afterthought but just kept on winning. At the end of the regular season, IU made the school’s first-ever College Football Playoff. The Hoosiers drew a first round matchup on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. Curt Cignetti and his staff assembled another strong roster but again, IU began the season rarely mentioned as a College Football Playoff contender. Fast-forward to November and the Hoosiers are 9-0 and ranked #2 in the country after a thorough domination of the Maryland Terrapins.
The Hoosiers have a pair of top ten wins including a mammoth victory at previously unbeaten #3 Oregon in formidable Autzen Stadium plus a win in Kinnick Stadium against the surging Iowa Hawkeyes.
If Indiana continues to take care of business, a College Football Playoff bye is very much on the table. In fact, if IU goes 12-0, it is really difficult to envision a scenario in which they would not have earned a bye to the quarterfinals.
The College Football Playoff will again consist of 12 teams this postseason but the format has been tweaked to strip away the automatic byes for conference champions. Instead, the byes will go to the four highest-ranked teams. The teams ranked numbers 5 through 12 will play in the CFP First Round with the better seed hosting the worse seed. The four highest-ranked teams will be assigned to Playoff Quarterfinals bowls on Selection Day in ranking order and with consideration to current contract bowl relationships.
The Quarterfinal games this season are as follows: Cotton Bowl (December 31), Orange Bowl (January 1), Rose Bowl (January 1) and Sugar Bowl (January 1). The Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl are the College Football Semifinals and the National Championship Game will be held in Miami on January 19.
This sport is so much greater and richer than just focusing on the College Football Playoff, though. Rivalries, the atmosphere on campus for a game, the passion and energy of each fan base and of course, bowl games are all an integral part of the fabric of the greatest sport in the world. The Big Ten has several bowl affiliations but the expectation is that the conference will put several teams into the College Football Playoff and that will almost certainly make it nearly impossible to accurately predict how the bowl picture will play out. Nonetheless, it’s fun to prognosticate and think about potential matchups!
A procedural note: The former PAC-12 bowl affiliations are still eligible to pull the four former PAC-12 teams (Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington) for one final season. That means these schools could be snagged by the Alamo, Independence, Holiday, LA, Las Vegas or Sun bowls. Sadly, the Big Ten still has no deal with the Pop Tarts Bowl.
It is tempting to throw my hands up and tell everyone to wait until the end of the season for us to figure these things out but duty calls so I’ll play the fool and guess how this will play out. I now believe Indiana will finish the regular season 12-0 and join the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. The winner of that game would earn a trip to the Rose Bowl and I think the loser would be slotted into one of the other quarterfinal bowls.
Playoff Seeding Projections
12-seed: Memphis Tigers (G5 Selection) at 5-seed: Oregon Ducks
11-seed: BYU Cougars at 6-seed: Georgia Bulldogs
10-seed: Louisville Cardinals (ACC Champion) at 7-seed: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
9-seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12 Champion) at 8-seed: Ole Miss Rebels
4-seed (bye): Alabama Crimson Tide (Cotton Bowl)
3-seed (bye): Indiana Hoosiers (Orange Bowl)
2-seed (bye): Texas A&M Aggies (Sugar Bowl)
1-seed (bye): Ohio State Buckeyes (Rose Bowl)
Teams Projected to Finish Below 6-6 and Miss a Bowl Game
I am projecting the following teams to miss a bowl game for the 2025-2026 season: Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, Wisconsin and shockingly, Penn State.
Big Ten Bowl Matchups
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 31
Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (vs. Big 12) – December 26
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Las Vegas Bowl (vs. former PAC-12) – December 31
USC Trojans vs. Utah Utes
Holiday Bowl (vs. ACC) – January 2
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Alamo Bowl (vs. Big 12)
Washington Huskies vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Music City Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 30
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Missouri Tigers
Pinstripe Bowl (vs. ACC) – December 27
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Reliaquest Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 31
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
GameAbove Sports Bowl (vs. MAC) – December 26
Maryland Terrapins vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks