IU has a chance to get to 9-0 for the second time in as many years. Wild times.
But, while they’re favored by more than three scores, Maryland has held leads of each of their last three games late in those games and found ways to lose. They’ve lost those games by a combined 10 points. They’re basically three quarters away from being 7-0.
IU is going into the last quarter of the season with just one home game and three road games.
Road game #1 is this week for the #2 team in the nation.
We’ll break it all down in this weeks Reactionary Preview.
#2 IU @ Maryland — 330PM ET / 230PM CT — CBS
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 8-6
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 35-13
It’s still just absolutely wild to me that IU will be a three TD favorite on the road in a B1G game but here we are, I guess.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives IU a 90.4% chance to win. This is a game that would scare me for IU to lose if the line was down around 10 or so but I think IU’s just playing way too well to not win this game.
Will they cover?
SP+ gives IU an 84% chance to win and sees IU as -16.1 and a final score of 32-16. I’m a big fan of SP+ but I just can’t get my head wrapped around Maryland being so stagnant offensively at UCLA and then seeing what IU did to UCLA last week.
I do think this game goes under as both teams attempt to limit the possessions each offense has.
For this game, I’m taking IU -21.5 and the UNDER.
When IU is on Defense
I’m starting with when IU is on defense because I want to talk about Maryland freshman QB Malik Washington. I think this kid is going to be a star…But notice that I said “going to be”.
He’s just not there yet. You can see it. He’s calm in the pocket. He’s got a huge arm. He can make plays with his legs and is a load to bring down at 6’5, 231.
His accuracy has been a big issue. He’s only thrown 3 INT’s while throwing for 1716 yards in 7 games (245 ypg) and the team is 51st in passing yards per game, but that’s come at just a 59.7% accuracy. He’s just missing passes.
What’s really kept him from making more mistakes is (stop me if you’ve heard this before) his 4th graded pass blocking graded team in the country by PFF.
That’s right, IU has now gone up against PFF’s #1 (Oregon), #3 (Iowa) and #4 (Maryland) pass blocking units.
IU mauled both Oregon and Iowa to the tune of 7 sacks and 14 TFL’s. IU stayed much more disciplined in the Oregon game after getting just one of those sacks in the Iowa game and I think we see a similar strategy.
That said, Maryland has given up just 2 sacks all season! A crazy number in 7 games that IU is going to have to change to win this game.
But, as I said prior to the Oregon and Iowa games, this is a pass blocking unit for Maryland that simply hasn’t played a team like IU’s thus far. IU can get pressure from anywhere along the line. IU has 5 players with 3.5 or more sacks and the distribution is crazy: LB, LB, iDL, iDL, DE.
And that doesn’t include former All American Mikail Kamara who had another huge game last week against UCLA (even though he briefly went into the medical tent) with 6 pressures.
When Washington has been pressured (just 20.5% of snaps), he’s been awful, given a 39.2 passing grade by PFF which is good for 118th out of 160 qualifiers…Ironically, just behind Dylan Raiola. If IU can get consistent pressure, it might be game over.
IU got very good news on Monday when HC Curt Cignetti said that LB Aidan Fisher is “probable” for Saturday. IU’s going to need him, Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones to lay the wood on Malik Washington if he tries to run. Washington has run 24 times for 98 yards (4.1 ypc) and 3 TD’s. He’s not a runner but he can absolutely run.
A ton has been put on Washington’s shoulders. He’s got a very good group of athletes on the outside highlighted by WR’s Shaleak Knotts, Octavian Smith, Jalil Farooq and TE Dorian Fleming. All four are between 26 and 31 catches and all are play makers in the passing game.
That means another test for IU’s secondary. We saw S Devan Boykin step up in a big way in his best game for IU last week in what was a dominant pass defense against UCLA, but it’s going to have to be a total team effort again.
Pass rush, combined with tight coverage from CB’s D’Angelo Ponds and Jamari Sharpe as well as disciplined play from S Amare Ferrell and Louis Moore on the back end.
But if Washington has put up such big numbers through the air why is Maryland just 107th (5.36) in yards per play?
It’s because Maryland’s run game has been putrid. Maryland is averaging just 101.3 ypg on the ground, good for 130th out 134 teams and is just 120th overall with 3.55 ypc average.
But, like most Mike Locksley teams, they use their RB’s in the pass game as an extension of the running game. Screens have given IU’s very aggressive defense some trouble so it’s going to be interesting to see how IU handles the RB’s DeJuan Williams, Nolan Ray and Iverson Howard. They have combined for 31 catches.
Those guys are athletes, but there just simply isn’t open space behind the 132nd graded run blocking team by PFF.
It’s an amazing contrast given that they’re #4 in pass blocking grade and have allowed just 2 sacks all year and #132 in run blocking grade and are averaging just 3.55 ypc.
To recap when IU is on defense:
- Pressure…Can IU do to this highly graded pass blocking unit what it’s done to others?
- Contain Malik Washington with his legs, not just running but extending plays
- Blow up an already bad run game for Maryland
- Stay disciplined and don’t blow assignments on this good pass catching group
- Force Malik Washington to make decisions when under pressure
When IU is on Offense
The most impressive thing about Maryland’s entire team has been their relentless pass rush led by freshman DE’s Sidney Stewart and Zahir Mathis.
Stewart has been a revelation with 5.5 sacks in 7 games and should be familiar to IU coaches because he was someone the team offered in the last recruiting cycle.
Maryland is 9th in the country in sacks per game with 3.14. They get after the quarterback.
The pass rush sets up everything this defense does and will be another tough test for IU’s OL. It will be interesting to see how they scheme against a very good IU OL.
Against UCLA and Nebraska, Maryland blitzed on 48% of drop backs, but on just 22% of drop backs against Washington. My sense is that DC Ted Monachino will blitz a bunch again, trying to recreate the Iowa model for slowing IU’s passing offense down.
But Maryland isn’t just a good pass rushing team. They have forced 14 INT’s, good for first in the nation by average. Their pressures lead to mistakes by opposing QB’s. In the games I’ve watched, there is a lot of pressure leading to throwing on the run which leads to bad INT’s.
I believe Fernando Mendoza is an elite passer and I don’t think he’s going to put the ball in harms way like some of the other QB’s Maryland has played but Mendoza and OC Mike Shanahan have to make sure to limit mistakes.
Maryland S Jalen Huskey was ejected from the UCLA game for targeting and will miss the first half. He leads Maryland with 3 INT’s. It’s a huge loss as he’s the 27th highest graded player overall defensive player in the country by PFF. But they have three other players with 2 INT’s in their DB room. They’re fast and athletic in the back end.
But as I keep saying, they haven’t dealt with a WR trio like IU’s before. I expect IU to be able to move the ball through the air against Maryland.
I’ve read people talking about how the Maryland defense isn’t that good in the run game but PFF (tied for 21st run defense grade) and allows just 124 ypg on the ground (41st). They also have some elite run defenders including LB Daniel Wingate and, when healthy, DT Bryce Jenkins.
The truth is that Maryland’s entire defense is basically above average by PFF so IU’s running game is going to have a lot to prove here. Frankly, I think IU’s running game has been really good at 17th in success rate but just haven’t been as explosive as I’d like. They’re scoring on the goal line but they are still in 21st percentile rushing explosion rate. I’d really like to see RB Roman Hemby bust one against his old team.
If IU can force Maryland to bring extra defenders down to defend the run with IU’s backs or with Mendoza’s legs, I think IU can really exploit them on the back end.
To recap when IU is on offense:
- Give Fernando Mendoza time when blitzed
- Make Maryland defend the run and force good match ups outside
- Jalen Huskey being out the first half is a big deal
- Mendoza must show escapability and hurt Maryland with his legs
In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti…GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!