It’s really hard to preview this game.
This is a tale of two seasons for UCLA. Before DeShaun Foster and After.
I’m going to attempt to use stats just from the last three games where UCLA, under interim coach Tim Skipper, are 3-0 and look like a rejuvenated bunch rather than the previous four games where they were 0-4.
However, I still need to use PFF in order to help guide my thoughts after looking at those updated stats and those inlcude…you guessed it…the first four games.
Either way, as HC Curt Cignetti said at his UCLA presser, this is a 3-0 football team and IU needs to prepare like they’re facing an undefeated team because that’s how they’ve played. They gutted out a win against Maryland at home last week and beat MSU on the road the week before 38-13. Does 38-13 vs MSU look familiar? Well that’s the same score IU beat them in Bloomington.
We’ll break it all down on this weeks Reactionary Preview.
#2 IU vs UCLA — 1200PM ET / 1100AM CT — Fox
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 7-5
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 41-13
IU needs to keep winning and doing so in a way that makes the advanced metrics like them. That random FG with :33 seconds left against MSU caused IU to under perform what Vegas and the computers thought they’d do…And because of how other teams performed, IU moved from #2 in ESPN’s FPI to #4.
ESPN’s matchup predictor does give IU as a 96.2% chance to win and SP+ has this game as a 40-14 win for IU.
I guess a lot of this depends on the health of UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava, who has looked rejuvenated. Nico is a gamer but he was hurt late in last weeks win over Maryland with what looked like a leg injury but did manage to come back in the game.
I am assuming he will play but running is a big part of his game and I’m just not sure how fleet a foot he’s going to be, especially with this attacking IU defense coming after him.
I also think UCLA’s defense has looked very strong the past couple of weeks, even in their win over Penn State where they gave up a ton of points trying to just hold onto the lead.
So, for this week, I’m taking IUFB to cover the -24.5 spread and the UNDER.
When IU is on defense:
This is going to start and end with how effective UCLA has been running the ball since the change at coach.
During this win steak…AF (after Foster)…UCLA has averaged 422.2 ypg as an offense compared to just 321.3 ypg BF (before Foster).
It’s painful to say as a fan of fomer IU and UCLA coach Tino Sunseri, but UCLA has been better under new OC Jerry Neuheisel.
If you may have thought, “well, they’re slinging it around more”…you’d be wrong. They’re only throwing it about 4 times per game less than when Foster/Sunseri where there but it’s the run game where they’ve really gotten some momentum.
UCLA has had 700 yards on the ground the past three games (233.3 ypg) compared to just 567 through the air (189 ypg). In the four games prior, they had just 497 rushing (124.3 ypg) and 788 through the air (197 ypg).
Nico has run for 52 ypg in their wins and 51 ypg in their losses but he’s been more efficient with his carries in the wins (5.20 ypc in wins vs 4.64 ypc in losses) to go along with 3 TD’s to 1 in wins.
From watching their games and looking at PFF, their OL isn’t really doing a ton differently, nor, from what I can gather, are they running at different spots along the line, but they do have three RB’s who are can all break tackles (and they’ve needed to) and get yards after contact. Jalen Berger, Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas all have more than 44 rushing attempts and each of them can catch the ball out of the backfield, something that gave IU’s front 7 some trouble against MSU last week.
I expect IU to be in it’s base defense with all three of Aiden Fisher, Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy on the field at the same time in order to slow down Nico and the three backs mentioned above. This is going to be a run heavy attack with a good screen game and an effective rushing QB who has a big arm but is prone to trying to do too much.
The area IU is going to have to take advantage of is the UCLA OL. They’re graded 86th and 84th, respectively, by PFF in pass blocking and run blocking. Again, that’s cumulative but I haven’t seen a ton that’s changed there. It’s more play calling than a change in philosophy up front. They’re just not good and IU’s front is very good.
Despite the brutal loss of DE Kellan Wyatt for the season, this game was the perfect time to see DE Stephen Daley get a ton of run. He’s better against the run than Wyatt anyway but I expect IU to play three iDL’s to help stop this rejuvenated rushing attack and given how rough the UCLA OL has been, I think they have a pretty good chance to slow it down.
Maryland had 27 “stops” (tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense) total in 74 snaps but had 16 stops in 25 true run plays. IU has to take advantage of a bad OL and force Nico into throwing situations where Mikail Kamara, Stephen Daley and the rest of the DL can make him make bad decisions.
UCLA has talent on the outside. WR’s Kwazi Gilmer, Titus Mokiao-Atimalala, Mikey Matthews and Rico Flores all have 13 or more catches and have caught 6 TD’s combined in the last three wins.
I’m just dubious they will have the time to make plays deeper than the intermediate middle of the field consistently enough. That was IU’s main problem with MSU. Aidan Chiles is a better passer and similar runner. Nico just isn’t on the same level yet with his arm. But IU can’t just let what happened with MSU happen here where Chiles was able to pick them apart.
I have a sneaking suspicion that UCLA is going to do the same thing that MSU and Iowa did which is limit possessions by taking time off the clock if they can. UCLA’s offense is better than Iowa’s but my guess is the passes over the LB’s in the middle along with the screen game to the three RB’s are going to be huge. IU adjusted against MSU after a couple drives…It will be interesting to see how they attack a team they know wants to run.
To recap when IU is on defense:
- Force Nico and the run game to pass.
- Can you keep the base defense and 3 LB’s on the field?
- Maul this pretty bad OL
- Force Nico into off platform throws
When IU is on offense:
I really think this has a similar feel to the MSU game. Perhaps UCLA makes a little noise offensively but I’m just not sure I see them stopping IU’s offense.
Again, it’s hard to take the totality of the season because of the two seasons UCLA has had within this one season but they’re 96th overall grade on defense by PFF is pretty telling.
The main thing that has changes since Foster left with the defense has been the focus on stopping the run. In their four losses, they allowed 232.8 yards per game on the ground. In their three wins, they’re allowing just 123.7 yards per game.
Essentially nothing has changed with their passing defense in terms of yardage either. It’s basically all gains in their rush defense as they’ve allowed just 315.7 yards per game on defense in their three wins after allowing 401.8 in their four losses.
Can IU’s OL open up run lanes for Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black (and maybe Khobie Martin)? UCLA pulled out all the stops on both sides of the ball to win that Penn State game but if it had been closer, PSU looked poised to be able to run well. They averaged 5.1 ypc for the game but got down big and had to deviate from what was working. I think IU’s tandem (trio?) of backs and the OL has shown themselves to at least be as good as PSU so I’m thinking IU can have their way up front. Massive DT Gary Smith (6’2, 340) and LB JonJon Vaughns are the two best run defenders.
The biggest issue, and a spot where IU should be able to put up a bunch of stats, is through the passing game. UCLA has a dreadful pass rush that’s “led” by former IU DE Anthony Jones who’s tied with DE Kechaun Bennett with 7 pressures each.
This UCLA defense just doesn’t get pressure. They have just 59 total pressures in 459 snaps to go along with just 6 sacks on the year. IU, for comparison’s sake, has 125 pressures in 396 snaps and 26 sacks.
IU is an elite defense and UCLA isn’t but to have 4x as many sacks and double the pressures in the same amount of games is just wild and shows why it’s fun to root for this vintage of IU under DC Bryant Haines.
Anyway, back to the offense. IU needs to throw the ball in this one. The match up simply dictates it and it would help out IU’s defense to force UCLA to get away from what’s been best for them (rushing).
And this isn’t on the secondary either. Guys like CB’s Roderick Pleasant, Andre Jordan and S Cole Martin all have pretty decent coverage grades but, like MSU, they just can’t be left out to dry by the DL like has happened all year. If UCLA wants any chance to stay in this game, they need to be all over Fernando Mendoza and I just don’t see that happening.
I see a big game from basically everyone in the passing game. I don’t really care that they’ve been better against the pass of late. They haven’t faced an offense like IU. WR’s Omar Cooper, EJ Williams and Elijah Sarratt should be in for big games if/when the OL gives Mendoza the time he needs.
Against MSU we saw drag routes, fade routes, posts, screens…we saw it all working for IU’s offense and I see that happening again here.
To recap when IU is on offense:
- Establish the run if you can.
- Keep the listless pass rush off Mendoza.
- Let Mendoza and the WR’s eat.
- Do we see Khobie Martin?
In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti: GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!