Another week, another win.
With the 38-13 win, IU moves to 7-0 and takes the #2 spot in the AP top 25 with a relatively easy win over Michigan State and also takes the Old Brass Spittoon for the second year in a row under HC Curt Cignetti.
It’s not every day that you can beat a conference opponent by 25 and still have things to work on but we’ll break it all down on this weeks version of the Reactionary Take.
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 40-10
Final Score: IU 38-13 — MSU COVERS +26.5 and UNDER 51.5
Season Betting Record: 7-5
This is what I consider a very bad beat.
I know the O/U moved down 3 total points to 49.5 from when my preview was published so with the final score coming out 38-13, I’m still giving myself the win there.
But I (and bettors) got absolutely screwed by a meaninglessness MSU field goal with :33 seconds to go in the game.
Ugh.
Still, 7-5 is positive units so we’ll take that heading into the game on Saturday with UCLA…But that’s for the preview and this is a recap.
No one else to start with. Mendoza was surgical and put more things on tape that will be used for when he’s drafted in the 1st round in April.
He had as many incompletions as he did TD passes.
He finished 28/32 for 332 (11.9 ypa) and 4 TD’s. PFF had him for 2 “big time throws” and he was given an 80.5 PFF grade when under pressure (just 21% of drop backs) where he was 4/5 for 96 yards and 2 TD’s.
Two of his TD’s (one to Omar Cooper and one to Elijah Sarratt), couldn’t have been walked out there and handed to them better. I’m not really going to talk Cooper and Sarratt later because they’re just humming along and I don’t really know if there is a better duo in the country outside of maybe Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate from OSU.
I’m running out of superlatives to use when he looks like this. MSU had no answer. They couldn’t stop Mendoza. He picked them apart with deep shots (3/3 for 99 yards and 2 TD’s on passes 20+). He picked them short (15/17 for 173 and 2 TD’s from 0-9 yards).
During the second drive IU had, I was thoroughly convinced that MSU was not going to stop IU from scoring on just about any drive and the only way IU wouldn’t score was if they stopped themselves…
They didn’t.
Mendoza led 5 consecutive TD drives to start the game. And considering MSU had their two longest (and probably best drives of the season) to start the game, that was really important because the defense was on their heals a little bit.
He’s getting better each week and his command of the offense and knowing where to go with the ball as he goes through his progressions was on full display.
His check down to TE Riley Nowakowski for 39 yards was a huge example. He didn’t find anyone on the first two reads, knew he had a check down, ripped it out there and it allowed Nowakowski to, athletically, side step the oncoming defender and turn up field. If that pass is slower or not as instant, that’s blown up for a short game…instead, it was a huge play on 2nd and 17 when IU was down 10-7 in the second quarter.
Very excited to continue to see his development and I think we’re looking at what NFL people call a “franchise QB”…a term I despise but might be apt here given just how good Mendoza has been to date.
Aidan Chiles
As I said in my preview, I’m a big fan of QB Aidan Chiles. I think he has next level talent but that it’s between the ears more than anything else with him.
Chiles gave IU fits on Saturday. He orchestrated two of the best drives (haven’t checked all their drives) they’ve had all season offensively.
MSU had a very smart game plan that was similar to Iowa’s. Use IU’s aggressive pass rush style against them. Run a ton of traditional and bubble screens. Attack the phantom pressures behind the dropping LB’s.
It worked…early but IU adjusted their up field rushes and corralled Chiles, especially in the second half.
Chiles finished 27/33 for 243 (7.1 ypa) and a TD and added 5 carries for 78 yards, including a brilliant 64 yard run (these are sack adjusted yards!).
He gave IU fits all day and, if his defense could have stopped IU at all, might have made this a much closer game.
Why am I giving a breakdown of NOT an IU player?
A very knowledgeable poster (Kookie) on the Peegs.com board mentioned this and I noticed as well but didn’t put 2 and 2 together until reading his post: After the game, Chiles made a point of finding Curt Cignetti right when the game ended and getting a quick 1 on 1 “hello”. The poster mentioned that it may not mean anything but when you see the opposing teams QB, after a game like he just played and with the MSU situation as murky as it is, finding the opposing teams coach after the game…it makes you think.
Did someone in his camp say “make sure you get in front of Cignetti regardless of the outcome”? Are we at that point where our coach is a QB whisperer and people are taking notice? Chiles does have another season of eligibility…
Anyway, as an Aidan Chiles fan, it was an interesting interaction and while it probably meant absolutely nothing, I figured I’d put in here after a terrific game from Chiles.
Carter Smith and the OL
I’m not going to do a massive deep dive here but the OL was very good again. They allowed just 5 pressures in 31 drop backs.
They weren’t as good in the running game as I kind of thought but MSU does have some talent along the DL and their LB’s are athletic and active.
But the run game wasn’t really needed since Mendoza was just going up and down the field using his arm.
That said, I wanted to shout out Carter Smith.
Smith has allowed just 3 pressures on 228 drop backs this season. Those numbers, along with his prowess in run blocking, give him the 3rd highest pass blocking grade (92.3) among all OL and he ranks 9th overall in overall PFF grade (82.8).
He has another year of eligibility but I doubt he takes it given how he’s playing right now. If he measures out at close to 6’5 and has the arm length teams like, he’s a day 1-2 pick lock, in my opinion. If not, I still seem him as a day 2 pick even if teams think he’d be better at OG (I don’t…I think he’s a OT regardless).
Khobie Martin
He’s taken last years Elijah Green role of “The Closer” and really shown some good athleticism, balance and vision.
Martin, in mostly garbage time, finished with 6 carriers for 40 yards (6.7 ypc) with an explosive 22 yard run late.
Roman Hemby only had 6 carriers for 11 yards (1.8 ypc) as MSU decided early that they were going to stop the run and make Mendoza beat them (he did beat them).
Anyway, back to Martin…I really like the way he’s running. My eye test thinks that he should be given a drive per game, even in close games. Not quite the Lee Beebe / 3rd and equal role, but something other than just mop up. He’s earned it, in my opinion.
Weirdly, PFF has him as the 20th overall running grade for RB’s and *3rd* overall offensive grade. His sample is small, but he’s awesome when he’s been given reps.
EJ Williams
I’ve made my feelings known since the last 4 games of the Tom Allen era about EJ. I really like him. I think some of the injuries have zapped his long speed but he’s not afraid to get hit, he has strong hands, runs terrific routes and knows his role on this team.
Williams finished with caught 5 of his 6 targets for 59 yards (11.8 ypc) and a TD. He should have had another TD if the football would fix or change the rule about going out of bounds backwards as he had a brilliant toe tap in the back corner on a 4th down but was ruled out when his heel came down barely on the white.
The play was posted by Red Zone’s Scott Hansen as a “blind spot” for catches and 48k+ likes on Twitter and nearly 8 million views.
Anyway, glad EJ is doing his thing because he’s so important to Cooper and Sarratt. He makes them that much more hard to cover.
Stephen Daley
Ro Hardy finished the game with 8 tackles, 2.5 TFL’s, 2 Sacks, 3 Stops (tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense) and 3 pressures. Typically, I’d be shouting him out with a write up.
Devan Boykin had 5 tackles and PFF consider all of the Stops. Aidan Fisher finished with 5 stops. Tyrique Tucker was the highest graded IU defender by PFF (76.7). Louis Moore had 11 tackles and .5 TFL’s.
But I’m here to shout out one of the unsung hero’s on defense again in Stephen Daley. I projected him atop the depth chart, ahead of Kellan Wyatt before the season. Wyatt has been a revelation and a perfect compliment to Mikail Kamara and Daley seemed largely like just the 3rd guy in that rotation.
Wyatt went down with what looked like a bad injury (for the second week in a row) but was able to walk off on his own…for the second week in a row. From what Cignetti said in his press availability, Wyatt might be done for the year. It would be a really big blow to this defense and I wonder who starts to get worked into the rotation on the outside.
Back to Daley. He’s improving every week. He had the big deflection in the Oregon game that led to the Louis Moore INT that helped IU go up two scores. And he was all over the place in this game. He finished this game with 3 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFL’s to go along with (a team leading) 5 of IU’s 16 total pressures.
Really happy that he’s stuck with it and boy has it paid off. He looks like he’s in better shape just from watching his highlights from last year to watching this year and he’s going to need to be in good shape given the situation with Wyatt. My guess now is that Daley will start opposite Kamara. We’ll probably see more 3 iDL + Kamara/Daley looks to keep those two fresh. And we’ll probably see Daniel Ndukwe. This is a massive spot for him.
I will be mentioning this in the UCLA preview, but IU is 3rd in the nation in sacks with 26 and has 7 guys who have 2.5 sacks or more…And Mikail Kamara has only one (1). This defense has a ton of weapons.
Complimentary Football
I wanted to highlight this because the game of how the game flowed. MSU knew their only chance was to limit possessions and they did a good job of eating up clock after just about every play by not snapping until the play clock was near zero. IU only had the ball once in the first quarter as MSU rattled off a 6:53 TD drive and, after an IU TD drive, an 8:18 second drive that ended in a FG.
I have to admit, I was feeling a bit annoyed by how IU was getting caught too deep on screens and then the simulated pressures were being used against them by Chiles and MSU with passes across the middle behind the LB’s.
Chiles finished 23/24 for 171 yards (7.1 ypa) and 1 TD in passes behind the LOS to 9 yards down field. He picked IU apart.
But IU adjusted, especially after half and made life much more difficult. They stopped biting on screens and blitzed a less and it seemed to slow down MSU.
The chart above is just illustrative of how complimentary IU is on both sides of he ball. Obviously, in any of these types of charts, you want to be in the top right and IU stands alone as having the highest success rate on offense and defense combined.
They pick each other up.
At Oregon and Iowa, it took time for the offense to get going but the defense clamped down to keep it close. That didn’t happen last year in big games. Part of that was probably due to Kurtis Rourke not being able to extend plays like Mendoza can because of his knee but also, IU has better athletes this year. That isn’t to take anything from last years team…I just think this years is better.
So, as MSU moved up and down the field early, IU’s offense stepped up and basically said “yeah, this isn’t happening”.
Just so good to see and really happy they’re playing such complimentary football and it has turned them into an analytics darling and, as Bill from @CFB_Data put it in the original tweet, “Still can’t believe that Indiana is the most complete team at this point in the season but I’m here for it.”
I agree, Bill.
On to UCLA and Big Noon Kick Off.