The Reactionary Preview: IUFB vs MSU

Oct 11, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) prepares to throw the ball against the Oregon Ducks during the fourth quarter at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images Spittoon week, baby! Not sure how others are feeling, but I'm still riding high after IU's big win at Oregon last weekend. I also want to stress that it wasn't just a win. IU won by two scores on the road in Autzen and controlled the game. Either way, dwelling on that or talking yourself up is the rat poison HC Curt Cignetti always talks about so we're flushing that win and we're on to what could easily be perceived as a trap game given the trajectories of where each of these teams appear to be headed for the rest of their '25 campaigns. I came into this year expecting a better season in year two for MSU HC Jonathan Smith because I felt like he had a couple dudes in QB Aidan Chiles and WR Nick Marsh along with a defense that had another year under their DC Joe Rossi. It looked like they might have found something early but after losing two in a row on the road at USC and Nebraska in relatively close games, things came crashing down hard at home against UCLA who blasted them 38-13. We'll break it down in more depth in this weeks Reactionary Preview. (via Yahoo!) #3 IU vs MSU — 330PM ET / 230PM CT — Peacock IU Reactionary Betting Record: 6-4 IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 40-10 It's pretty shocking to to see the line this high in IU's favor against any conference opponent, let alone Michigan State but I think it has a lot to do with the uncertainty with Aidan Chiles after his head injury last week. Regardless, of who's at QB, I don't see IU losing this game given what we've watched from both teams thus far in '25. ESPN's match up predictor gives IU a *96.4%* chance to win this game...Think about telling someone that two years ago after IU walked off losing to Purdue. Just crazy. I think MSU has talent on offense...Whether they can actually matriculate down the field given how good IU's defense has been remains to be seen. So, for this week, I'm taking IU -26.5 and the UNDER. (via gameonpaper.com) When IUFB is on defense: From the games I've watched and the stats I've looked at, I can say that I've been wrong about the MSU passing game. They're currently 97th in the country in passing yards per game (200.5 ypg). It just hasn't gotten going like I thought it would. QB Aidan Chiles has struggled mightily with decision making and accuracy. I think a fair bit of that can be put at the feet of an OL that is ranked 94th in pass blocking grade by PFF this season. Still, Chiles has all the talent in the world to be an elite college QB (arm talent, escapeability, athleticism) but he can't seem to stop turning the ball over (3 INT's so far and 6 turnover worth plays), taking sacks that kill drives (15 sacks taken this year), avoiding big hits when running and he just isn't accurate enough when he is pressured (just 37% completion rate on 68 pressured drop backs) to make taking those sacks worth it...He just looks like a young QB who honestly might need a change of scenery at this point. He got blasted last week on a scramble during a spin move that looked like the textbook definition of targeting (it wasn't called) and came out of the game with a head injury. Before being knocked out though, Chiles, again, struggled with accuracy, completing just 8/17 of his pass attempts for a putrid 66 yards (3.9 ypa) and zero TD's or INT's. Chiles is still questionable as of this writing for the game on Saturday. Smith brought in redshirt freshman QB Alessio Milivojevic who looked...better, I guess, but the game was kind of out of hand at that point. From what I watched, the offense didn't really change much with Milivojevic under center. He finished with 8/18 for 100 yards (5.6 ypa) and a TD. Regardless of who's under center, MSU's OL is going to be under siege. Their interior guys have been pretty good, including C Matt Gulbin who has been one of the better iOL in the nation. Where they've struggled, especially in pass protection has been on the outside. They've had 4 OT's play 90+ snaps and none has over even an average PFF grade (highest being 58.6 pass blocking grade). I mentioned above that MSU has taken 15 sacks and that is tied for 107th nationally. Just a staggering number for a team with the tradition of MSU that played just four Power 4 teams this year. I expect DC Bryant Haines to use Mikail Kamara and Kellan Wyatt to exploit that weakness on the edge. The elite blocking units of Oregon and Iowa both struggled to keep IU's elite DL in front of them. I just don't see MSU being better than either of them and expect a big day up front. For MSU to have any chance in this game they're going to have to remedy their average 3rd down distance (7.55 yards - 105th in the nation). I think this is one of the most important stats in measuring efficiency in football and while IU is elite on both sides of the ball (forcing further 3rd down distances on defense and having short 3rd down distances on offense), MSU is awful when they have the ball. One of the things that Smith's offense still does is throw the ball down the field. Chiles is 28th in the nation in aDOT (average depth of target) at 10.3 yards. So, when the QB's have time to throw and make accurate throws, MSU has some talent on the outside to look out for and that can make plays for yardage. Elite sophomore WR Nick Marsh has been fine this year but with the struggles of Chiles and the MSU OL to keep him clean, Marsh just hasn't had the breakout I thought he was going to have. So far, Marsh has 29 catches for 340 yards (11.7 ypc) and 4 TD's. Not to be outdone, senior WR Omari Kelly has quietly been statistically better than Marsh with 24 catches for 347 yards (14.5 ypc) and 1 TD. In my opinion, he's one of the best WR in the nation, not just the B1G. He's that talented. I think the thing that has actually been the most confounding for me when looking at MSU's offense has been their run game. The OL grades out 21st overall by PFF yet MSU is just 97th in rushing yards per game (131.7) and 101st in average yards per rush (3.8). Chiles has taken sacks but he's a runner and has 186 yards on the ground despite the 15 sacks. So why aren't their rushing stats better? I think some of that has to do with how their games have played out (more high scoring and being down late in games and having to throw) but also sophomore RB Makhi Frazier has been fine...just not explosive. He has 87 carriers for 383 yards (4.4 ypc) with 2 TD's but his long is 28 and he hasn't had a rush longer than 16 yards against a power 4 team. IU CB's will have to play a good game but I just don't expect whoever starts at QB to have enough time to consistently test them enough to keep this game that close. MSU always prided themselves on tough running with guys like Kenneth Walker or Le'Veon Bell or TJ Duckett or Jeremy Langford. They just don't have that that type of back so far under Smith. MSU's run game (or lack there of) is a big reason why they're having such big 3rd down yardage to get and I think IU is going to have a real advantage here. Oregon ran for just one (1) yard in the second half. Oregon has an exponentially better run game than MSU. I expect LB's Aidan Fisher, Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy to be flying to the ball in this one. That means they're going to need the typical help they get from their inside guys like Mario Landino, Tyrique Tucker and Hosea Wheeler, causing chaos up front. To recap when IU is on defense: Attack the OT's for MSU Use pressure to force shorter routes and off platform throws Be careful on the outside with Marsh and Kelly Just do what IU does against the run When IUFB is on offense: Boy, there is a lot of purple on that graphic above for MSU when they're on defense and a lot of green for IU. The bigger issue for MSU than their offense has been just how bad their defense has been. They're allowing 31.8 ppg against, good for 121st in the nation. They just can't stop anyone whether you're a good offense or not. It's shocking given their prowess on defense historically but this is just a bad unit across the board. Their total defense grades by PFF: 83rd overall defensive grade 65th overall in run defense grade 90th overall in tackling grade 81st overall in pass rush grade 89th overall in coverage grade I expect OC Mike Shanahan and QB Fernando Mendoza to attack a passing defense giving up the 91st most passing yards per game (238) relentlessly. Some of their DB's haven't graded out that poorly individually by PFF but when you're allowing 73.3% of passes completely against you, including 8 penalties, you're simply not doing enough. I think IU's WR are going to have a field day in this one. CB's Malcolm Bell and Joshua Eaton have been fine, I guess, but they also haven't faced the likes of Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper and EJ Williams. I'm excited to see what IU has dialed up here in the passing game and would like to see them get more than the four total guys catch balls that they had against Oregon. I get the rotation gets a bit tighter, but it seems like they really only trust a couple guys. I hope we see some snaps for guys like Holden Staes, Charlie Becker and Jonathan Brady to continue to build depth and keep them involved. Again, that's more me hoping than me thinking will actually happen unless this turns into a laugher. Just a side note on TE's: in all their Power 4 games, MSU has allowed at least a catch to a TE and 3 catches in two of those games. Maybe we can get Riley Nowakowski and Holden Staes some targets. For me in looking at MSU, I think their issues are really that they don't do basically anything well, but *especially* pass rushing. To me, pass rushing is the most important part of defense. When you're 64th in the nation in in total sacks (13), you're simply just hanging your DB's out to dry. I don't care who you're DB's are, you simply can't stay with WR's for 3-5 seconds. MSU has just 69 pressures in 386 snaps (18% pressure rate). Compare that to an elite team like IU who has 109 pressures in just 331 snaps (33% pressure rate). Until MSU figures out a way to get pressure on opposing QB's, I just have a hard time seeing them being able to stop the pass in any meaningful way unless a QB is simply misreading what he's looking at. I don't expect that from Mendoza on Saturday. The only non awful part of the defense is their rush defense. They're 55th in rushing yards per game (131.7) but have given up 10 TD's in 6 games on the ground. They allowed a good (and healthy RB room at the time) USC team to run 40 for 289 yards (7.2 ypc) and 3 TD's. Then they turned around and allowed just 27 carries for 88 yards (3.2 ypc) and 3 TD's at Nebraska. Despite the TD's, it seemed like they had figured something out... In the words of the immortal Lee Corso: Not so fast, my friend! UCLA came into East Lansing and ran 43 times for 238 yards (5.5 ypc) and 2 TD's. I know I just threw a ton of rushing stats at you there but I do that to say this: the IU run game should absolutely have their way with the MSU front 7. IU is every bit as talented up front as any of those teams I mentioned and have two legit backs to that run hard on every play. MSU is going to need career days from iDL's Alex VanSumereran and Grady Kelly and LB's Jordan Hall and Wayne Matthews. All four are legit talents with Hall and VanSumereran combining for 23 of the teams 84 total Stops on defense (PFF stat - tackles that constitute a "failure" for the offense). I just don't think they're going to be enough to slow down IU. Like in the passing game, I expect Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to have good days on the ground and I'm hoping they have good enough days that we see Khobie "The Closer" Martin again (that's just my nickname because he's come in and just laid the wood in garbage time this year). To recap when IUFB is on offense: Attack the secondary Dominate a lesser opponent up front Get the run game dialed in Get to 7-0

The Reactionary Preview: IUFB vs MSU

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