The Reactionary Preview: No. 7 Indiana @ No. 3 Oregon

Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) breaks the tackle of Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Deshaun Lee (8) and runs for the end zone on a 49-yard touchdown reception late during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images What an absolute gem we have brewing this weekend for Indiana and Oregon in Eugene. ESPN's Game Day will be on site and the game will be the mid-afternoon game with CBS's A crew. Before we jump in I felt like I needed to remind people just how hard it is to win on the road like IU did last week at Iowa. I'm not big fans of Texas or Penn State and glad they're now unranked, but both had major issues against teams with a combined *one* win coming into play on Saturday. IU may not have been clicking on all cylinders last week, but they sure showed some moxie beating a team with 3x the amount of wins the teams Texas and Penn State lost to. Can they do it it again this week? (via Yahoo!) #7 IU at #3 Oregon — 330PM ET / 230PM CT — CBS IU Reactionary Betting Record: 4-4 IU Reactionary Prediction: Oregon 28-24 I'm stuck at .500 this season largely because there are games I would never have bet on that I have to make selections for. If you've read me before, I hate betting on teams that are heavy public favorites. I'm glad I took the under last week to at least salvage a 1-1 record. But onto Oregon. ESPN's FPI gives IU just a 30.5% chance to win this game and if you've followed their predictor, it's actually pretty good at predicting. That said, the line has come down significantly from +10.5 to +7.5 at MGM and ESPNBet. Clearly the computers and sports books had to rethink what that win for Oregon meant at Penn State after Penn State's terrible loss @ UCLA. Bill Connelly's SP+ predicts 28-22 and I tend to kind of see it similarly. Until I see IU able to handle the pressure of a road environment like Autzen, specifically on offense with the silent count, I have a hard time picking IU to win the game outright. For this week, I'm taking IU +7.5 and the UNDER. (via gameonpaper.com) When IU is on Defense It's almost comical how good IU has been on paper on both sides of the ball. Just remarkably consistent. I wanted to start with the IU defense here because I think they've been one of the best units in the country. But they haven't faced anyone like Dante Moore, Dekorian Moore, Dierre Hill, Jayden Lymar or...I can go on and on. I really can. The point is Dante Moore is a legit NFL level QB and am really impressed as to what he's become as he's matured from a couple years ago when he was freshman at UCLA. Credit to Moore and HC Dan Lanning for putting in the work to see the vision because the games I've watched from Moore have been surgical. I know I just gushed over Dante Moore but I think what helps make him so special is Oregon's run game. Oregon is the 11th best rushing offense by ypg (239.4) and averages 6.27 ypc. To say IU's rush defense has been good would be an understatement. This is strength on strength. IU's rushing stats against are skewed because of the two runs by ODU QB Colton Joseph that account for 153, or 35%, of the 440 yards they've given up on the ground. Despite those two runs, IU is giving up just 88 ypg on the ground, tied for 7th in the country. I'm typically not one to do this but if you take out the two Joseph runs, IU has given up an insane 2.12 ypc on the season which would be good for 2nd in the nation and would be 1st in the nation in fewest rushing yards per game (57.4), which is 5 yards per game ahead of Missouri. Again, those two runs happened but make no mistake about it: IU has one of the best rushing defenses in the nation. Stopping Oregon and their plethora of explosive backs on the ground and making Dante Moore beat you seems like a rough proposition but stopping any part of a team that's 7th in the nation in total offense who's averaging 7.47 yards per play is going to be a tall task. One of the things I took away from that game Oregon played against Penn State was that Dan Lanning and co. refused to abandon the run even when the offense was having trouble getting going through the first three quarters. Dierre Hill did Dierre Hill things (10 carriers for 81 yards with 5 missed tackles forced) but the rest of their backs (including the legs of Dante Moore) didn't really do very much. They finished with 39 rushes for 176 yards (4.5 avg). I think IU is going to do a good job against the run. Oregon might break a couple of plays but, outside of Dierre Hill, they broke just one (1) tackle on 29 attempts. If IU continues tackling like they did against Iowa, they have a real shot to keep this run game in check. The Oregon OL is also tied for 36th in OL run blocking grade by PFF. 36th in anything for this offense is considered "struggling", I guess, but just something to keep an eye on considering IU is tied for 2nd in the nation with 9.8 tackles for loss per game (49 total in 5 games). IU has an advantage up front in the run game and they need to exploit it because... ...This is where Dante Moore comes in. IU got huge news Monday when HC Curt Cignetti said that All American CB D'Angelo Ponds would be back this week. I really liked what Ryland Gandy did filling in for Ponds against Iowa but Oregon isn't Iowa. It will be very interesting to see how IU tries to defend the athletes Oregon has on the outside. Oregon has a very good pass catching TE (Kenyon Sadiq) and TE's have had success against the zone coverages IU DC Bryant Haines employs. So, I'm going to guess Sadiq will be a focal point which means the safeties and LB's need to know where he is at all times. I wouldn't be shocked if IU actually had CB's Ponds, Ryland Gandy and Jamari Sharpe all on the field at the same time at points in this one. Oregon is almost always in 11 personnel (one TE and one RB). With how talented the WR corps is for Oregon and with Sadiq being a mediocre blocker, maybe getting more speed on the field is a good idea, especially given how good IU's DL continues to be? Regardless of how they play that, IU's main focus in the passing game is jitterbug type, true freshman Dekorien Moore. He's a home run hitter from the slot at 5'11, 195 averaging 15.6 ypc. Do we see Ponds shadow Dakorien Moore? Will be an interesting chess match. The reason I mentioned three CB's on the field is because it's not just Moore and Sadiq in the pass game. Gary Bryant and Malik Benson are no slouches either. They have 16 catches each and 6 combined TD's. IU is going to want to keep everything in front of them and try to force a mistake from Moore who basically never makes mistakes, even when under pressure... ...And pressure is going to be very hard to come by in this one. After IU's dismantling of Iowa's OL, Oregon now has the best pass blocking OL by PFF. Isn't that fun? The two best pass blocking OL's in the nation...in a row. So, can IU get pressure on Dante Moore? He's been pressured just 21.3% of his drop backs this year and his lone INT wasn't when pressured. That elite OL just doesn't allow him to be pressured and when there is pressure, Moore grades out at 7th overall in PFF passing grade when pressured. But he also just hasn't been pressured much...I think if IU can get that above 30% maybe they can force him into a bad throw. One way Oregon limits pressure is similar to IU: the RPO game. Moore was surgical against PSU but had a pretty pedestrian 6.4 ypa on 39 passes. He knows that he can get the ball to his guys in space and let them make plays. But I also don't think Oregon has played a defense as attacking as IU. Yes, I know they just played Jim Knowles and Penn State but I really don't think IU is just going to sit back and let Moore pick them apart like Knowles. Knowles blitzed on just 10 of 45 drop backs and got pressure on just 10 of 45 drop backs. They made Moore dink and dunk down the field and the strategy worked for awhile until Lanning and co. figured out how and where the weaknesses were and then they became unstoppable again. Ryan from the All4You podcast often describes IU's offense the past two years under Cignetti by saying they're offense is "death by efficiency" to opposing defenses. They're always ahead of the chains. They're always in 3rd and short. They're always extending drives. That's exactly how Oregon is. They have no real weak spots on offense. They just get yards, keep the chains moving and repeat that process over and over and Dante Moore is the reason they can do that. Final thing on Moore: He's 12th in the nation in what PFF calls big time throw rate (7%), meaning 7% of his throws are what they consider elite and he has 10 total. Compare that to Fernando Mendoza who has just 5 big time throws (3.2%). Moore can spin it. I think the arm talent is similar to Mendoza but Moore has made some really big plays this year. I keep beating the Mikail Kamara drum but I really think he has a break out game this weekend. I don't think the refs are going to let the Oregon OL tackle IU's DL's like they did at Iowa. Kamara got bear hugged and head locked numerous times in that game and they went uncalled. For as "rough" as it's been for Kamara counting stat wise (just one sack), he's still 66th among edge rushers in pressures (15), 45th in pass rush grade (83.6) and 36th in win rate (21.3%). It's coming, folks, and I hope it happens in this one. And if IU can actually can get pressure with it's base defense and guys like Kamara, Tyrique Tucker, Mario Landino, Kellen Wyatt and Stephen Daley, that would really help out the secondary. Moore is pretty good at scrambling but IU has one of the best LB's in the nation in Aidan Fisher who will be on the hunt if Moore tries to break contain. Moore's not a true runner but he's an athlete. IU must contain him but also pressure him. A tall task for any defense but if there is one that can do it, it's got to be an elite one and IU has an elite defense. Wasn't sure where to put this but one amazing stat thus far is that IU's defense has allowed just 3 total red zone attempts by opposing offenses in 5 games (opponents have scored on all three but 2 FG's and 1 TD). Just a wild stat and a trend that we hope will continue into this game. Oregon has allowed just 6 red zone attempts, 5 TD's and one FG. So, to recap what I think are keys for IU when they're on defense: Keep their athletes in front of you. Limit massive plays. Keep doing what you've been doing in stopping the run. Pressure Dante Moore more than just the 21.3% he's been pressured in '25. Continue to dominate up front - Oregon hasn't faced a DL like IU. Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) passes the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes Sept. 27, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. When IU is on Offense I think the most telling information from the graphic above is that IU's offense is still the #1 team in the country in least amount of yards to gain on 3rd down (4.62 yards) and Oregon's defense is 90th (6.97). IU has been so good at being ahead of the sticks and I think there is some room for IU to run and pass pretty effectively against this Oregon defense. I think the elephant in the room with IU's offense will continue to be the silent snap count. As I wrote about in the Iowa game, IU was so predictable that Iowa was having guys literally moving before IU's OL was moving in anticipation of the snap. It's not just one game either. IU had major issues last season at OSU and at Notre Dame in the playoff game dealing with the crowd noise. If...If IU can figure out a better way to deal with said crowd noise, I think they can move the ball. Oregon hasn't faced an offense like IU's yet (and no, Penn State's isn't close to IU). IU rarely turns it over. They can run and pass and block well for the run and pass. That leads to them almost never behind the chains, which means efficiency in moving the ball down the field. It all starts with Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza willed his team to victory two Saturday's ago and it's drives like the one before half where IU got a FG and the game winning drive that make him so fun to have on your team. I typically hate sports cliche's but Mendoza is a gamer. He just is. He performs better when the pressure is on. When looking deeper at Oregon, the thing I think surprised me most was just how few sacks they have as a team. They are tied for 92nd in the country in sacks (just 9 total in 5 games). They a have very talented DL too but they just haven't really been able to generate a ton of pressure this season. My guess is that Lanning and DC Tosh Lupoi watched that Iowa tape and will attack the right side of IU's OL in Bray Lynch and Kahlil Benson. During the Iowa game, their best pass rushers were basically always on that side and with the snap count issues and inability of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to help out much in the pass pro, Iowa was in the backfield a bunch. Simply put: IU's OL and RB's need to handle the pressure when it comes much better. If they can't, IU could be in for a long day because Oregon as a very good secondary. My sense is that Oregon will have their best pass rusher, DE Matayo Uiagalelei (yes, he's DJ's brother) on that side nearly exclusively. He has 4 sacks. IU also needs to be aware of where Oregon's other pressure getter DE is in Teitum Tuioti (2.5 sacks). They have combined for 28 of 56 pressures. Other than those two, though, Oregon has been good up front but not elite. Another aspect I found interesting is that Oregon only blitzed PSU on 22.6% of it's drop backs. They've gotten a lot of pressure in every game but it's coming from their base defense for the most part (mostly 4-2-5 but, like IU, they switch it up). Iowa had a good DL and had to throw the kitchen sink at IU to pressure Mendoza (blitzed on 66.7% of drop backs)...Does Oregon change their philosophy from a defense that hasn't blitzed on more than 28.6% of opposing teams drop backs (in P4 games) this year to piggy back on what Iowa "exposed"? This is something I'll be watching intently for. Still, Mendoza showed he can still make throws even if they are getting pressure. His lone INT this season was on a throw that is probably a TD if he isn't getting hit as he's throwing. A quarter second earlier and he's drilling Cooper in the chest and he's running by the Iowa defense for a TD. IU will be relying on the trio of Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper and EJ Williams to keep the Oregon defense honest. Oregon's coverage grades are elite for a bunch of guys but they just haven't faced a trio like this. Penn State's WR are not close to the level IU's guys are playing right now. But this is, again, going to be a battle of elite vs elite so far. Guys to look for in the secondary are former Purdue S Dillon Thieneman, S Peyton Woodyard, and five high usage CB's led by Jadon Canady. All are super athletic and can cover. It will be interesting to see how IU uses TE's Holden Staes and Riley Nowakowski in this one. Oregon hasn't given up a ton of yards to TE's but opposing teams have targeted them a decent amount. I'm interested to see this match up because Oregon's LB Jerry Mixon has been elite in coverage this year and has two INT's. The other area where I think IU has an advantage is Oregon isn't very good in run defense. There should be holes for Hemby and Black to hit. PFF grades Oregon as just the 66th overall run defense while giving up 114.8 ypg, good for 38th in the nation. Their run defense is...fine, it's just not as good as IU's rushing attack. IU is 11th in rush grade and has run for 267.8 ypg, good for 5th in the nation. Oregon held PSU to 33 carries for 143 yards (4.3 ypc) and a TD but they also allowed Northwestern to run 34 times for 208 yards (6.1 ypc) and 2 TD's. Have they fixed their issues that were exposed against a bad Northwestern team? I'm not sure they have. But Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are at least as good a duo as PSU's Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton from what I've watched this year and better than Northwestern's backs so this is where IU is going to have to make some hay. Hemby, as I said last week, was incredible in that Iowa game. He was turning losses into 5+ yard gains by himself and single handily brought them out of their own end with a big run where he broke out of a pile in that half ending drive which set up the tying FG. I think IU has a big advantage here. I also think the screen game could be big. Three of Northwestern's 11 total completions and five of PSU's 14 completions went to RB's. Hemby is a better receiver than any of those guys and I think he could be a real weapon. Along with Hemby and Black, I think Mendoza is going to have to use his legs. Drew Allar ran 7 times for 46 yards (6.6 ypc) yards. Mendoza is as athletic, if not more, than Allar. Mendoza is going to need to protect himself against the athletes on the Oregon defense. So, to recap the keys for IU on offense: IU needs to figure out their silent count. IU should have an advantage up front and in the run game. Toughest match is IU's WR vs Oregon's secondary. Roman Hemby in the screen game. Mendoza is going to need to use his legs if guys aren't open. Special Teams Just a quick note here because I mentioned them last week but IU has some real weapons on special teams. IU has blocked 3 punts (even though the NCAA site has them at 2). They have two real weapons in K Nico Radicic and KOS Brendan Franke. Radicic hasn't missed a kick and Franke booms balls out of the end zone. Jonathan Brady is also a weapon on punt returns. Let's hope that continues this week in Eugene. In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti, "Go IU, Go IU, Go IU!".

The Reactionary Preview: No. 7 Indiana @ No. 3 Oregon

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