For fans of Indiana University football, postseason predictions have never been more fun. A season ago, the Hoosiers began the 2024 campaign as an afterthought but just kept on winning. At the end of the regular season, IU made the school’s first-ever College Football Playoff. The Hoosiers drew a first round matchup on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. Curt Cignetti and his staff assembled another strong roster but again, IU began the season rarely mentioned as a College Football Playoff contender.
Five weeks into the season, the Indiana Hoosiers are a perfect 5-0 and they look every bit the part of a College Football Playoff contender once again. Indiana hammered the Illinois Fighting Illini 63-10 and followed that up with a gritty 20-15 victory at Iowa. Indiana’s bye week came at a perfect time for the Hoosiers and the playoff picture shifted significantly while Indiana watched and rested up. Penn State suffered a stunning loss to previously winless UCLA and the Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes are now on life support. Texas also lost their second game of the season with a disappointing showing against Florida.
The College Football Playoff will again consist of 12 teams this postseason but the format has been tweaked to strip away the automatic byes for conference champions. Instead, the byes will go to the four highest-ranked teams. The teams ranked numbers 5 through 12 will play in the CFP First Round wit the better seed hosting the worse seed. The four highest-ranked teams will be assigned to Playoff Quarterfinals bowls on Selection Day in ranking order and with consideration to current contract bowl relationships. The Quarterfinal games this season are as follows: Cotton Bowl (December 31), Orange Bowl (January 1), Rose Bowl (January 1) and Sugar Bowl (January 1). The Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl are the College Football Semifinals and the National Championship Game will be held in Miami on January 19.
This sport is so much greater and richer than just focusing on the College Football Playoff, though. Rivalries, the atmosphere on campus for a game, the passion and energy of each fan base and of course, bowl games. The Big Ten has several bowl affiliations but the expectation is that the conference will put several teams into the College Football Playoff and that will almost certainly make it nearly impossible to accurately predict how the bowl picture will play out. Nonetheless, it’s fun to prognosticate and think about potential matchups!
A procedural note: The former PAC-12 bowl affiliations are still eligible to pull the four former PAC-12 teams (Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington) for one final season. That means these schools could be snagged by the Alamo, Independence, Holiday, LA, Las Vegas or Sun bowls. Sadly, the Big Ten still has no deal with the Pop Tarts Bowl.
College Football Playoff Bracket
It is tempting to throw my hands up and tell everyone to wait until the end of the season for us to figure these things out but duty calls so I’ll play the fool and guess how this will play out. I believe Indiana will finish 10-2 while Ohio State, Texas Tech and Miami all finish 13-0 as conference champions.
12-seed: Memphis Tigers at 5-seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders
11-seed: Ole Miss Rebels at 6-seed: Texas A&M Aggies
10-seed: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 7-seed: Oklahoma Sooners
9-seed: Indiana Hoosiers at 8-seed: Georgia Bulldogs
4-seed (bye): Oregon Ducks (Cotton Bowl)
3-seed (bye): Alabama Crimson Tide (Sugar Bowl)
2-seed (bye): Miami Hurricanes (Orange Bowl)
1-seed (bye): Ohio State Buckeyes (Rose Bowl)
Teams Projected to Finish Below 6-6 and Miss a Bowl Game
I am projecting the following teams to miss a bowl game for the 2025-2026 season: Northwestern, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers and Wisconsin.
Bowl Projections
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 31
Michigan Wolverines vs. Missouri Tigers
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (vs. Big 12) – December 26
Michigan State Spartans vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Las Vegas Bowl (vs. former PAC-12) – December 31
USC Trojans vs. Utah Utes
Holiday Bowl (vs. ACC) – January 2
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Alamo Bowl (vs. Big 12)
Washington Huskies vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Music City Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 30
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Pinstripe Bowl (vs. ACC) – December 27
Maryland Terrapins vs. Duke Blue Devils
Reliaquest Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 31
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers
GameAbove Sports Bowl (vs. MAC) – December 26
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks
Playoff Sleepers
Indiana fans could end up paying a lot of attention to potential playoff bid stealers, particularly if the Hoosiers end up at 10-2 with losses to Penn State and Oregon. A few of the teams the College Football Playoff Committee could end up comparing to the Hoosiers and to keep an eye on in the weeks to come:
Notre Dame – They have two early losses but one was at Miami in a close game and the other was in a nailbiter at home to Texas A&M. If the Fighting Irish go 10-2, they’d have ten straight wins, two close losses to likely fellow playoff teams and no wins against high-quality teams.
Missouri – The Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Kansas and South Carolina. They will be severely tested moving forward with games against Alabama, at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and at Oklahoma plus at Auburn, against Mississippi State and at Arkansas. If Missouri is 10-2, they would get the nod over 10-2 Indiana.
Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 with a win at Colorado and a three-point win over Clemson. They still play at Duke and at NC State and they close with a game in Atlanta against Georgia. How would the committee evaluate a team that finishes 11-1 with the lone loss coming to Georgia? Georgia Tech would then make the ACC Championship Game and presumably lose to Miami so they’d be 11-2 with no really good wins but no bad losses. I think IU would get the nod but that would be interesting.
Tennessee – The Volunteers are 4-1 with an overtime loss to Georgia and a solid win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville. If the Volunteers can figure out the defense a bit during this past bye week, they still have matchups with Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt plus a game at Florida. How would the committee compare IU to Tennessee if the Vols were 10-2 with wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt and losses only to Georgia and at Alabama?