For fans of Indiana University football, postseason predictions have never been more fun. A season ago, the Hoosiers began the 2024 campaign as an afterthought but just kept on winning. At the end of the regular season, IU made the school’s first-ever College Football Playoff. The Hoosiers drew a first round matchup on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. Curt Cignetti and his staff assembled another strong roster but again, IU began the season rarely mentioned as a College Football Playoff contender.
Five weeks into the season, the Indiana Hoosiers are a perfect 5-0 and they look every bit the part of a College Football Playoff contender once again. Indiana hammered the Illinois Fighting Illini 63-10 and followed that up with a gritty 20-15 victory at Iowa. It’s very possible the past two wins are more impressive to the College Football Playoff Committee than any single victory the Hoosiers had in 2024.
The College Football Playoff will again consist of 12 teams this postseason but the format has been tweaked to strip away the automatic byes for conference champions. Instead, the byes will go to the four highest-ranked teams. The teams ranked numbers 5 through 12 will play in the CFP First Round wit the better seed hosting the worse seed. The four highest-ranked teams will be assigned to Playoff Quarterfinals bowls on Selection Day in ranking order and with consideration to current contract bowl relationships. The Quarterfinal games this season are as follows: Cotton Bowl (December 31), Orange Bowl (January 1), Rose Bowl (January 1) and Sugar Bowl (January 1). The Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl are the College Football Semifinals and the National Championship Game will be held in Miami on January 19.
This sport is so much greater and richer than just focusing on the College Football Playoff, though. Rivalries, the atmosphere on campus for a game, the passion and energy of each fan base and of course, bowl games. The Big Ten has several bowl affiliations but the expectation is that the conference will put several teams into the College Football Playoff and that will almost certainly make it nearly impossible to accurately predict how the bowl picture will play out. Nonetheless, it’s fun to prognosticate and think about potential matchups! A procedural note: The former PAC-12 bowl affiliations are still eligible to pull the four former PAC-12 teams (Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington) for one final season. That means these schools could be snagged by the Alamo, Independence, Holiday, LA, Las Vegas or Sun bowls. Sadly, the Big Ten still has no deal with the Pop Tarts Bowl.
College Football Playoff Bracket
Last Week: 12-USF at 5-PSU, 11-Texas A&M at 6-Oklahoma, 10-Texas Tech at 7-LSU, 9-IU at 8-Florida State, 4-Oregon Ducks, 3-Miami Hurricanes, 2-Georgia Bulldogs, 1-Ohio State Buckeyes
This Week: Florida State drops from the bracket after a critical defeat at Virginia. Alabama enters the picture as they upset the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas now moves into my pick to win the SEC Championship thanks to a dominant defense and what I expect to be an improving offense. I now have the Hoosiers playing at Ole Miss after the Rebels beat LSU in Oxford. This coming weekend, keep an eye on Vanderbilt’s trip to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama and Miami playing at Florida State in a game that could eliminate Florida State from at-large contention.
12-seed: South Florida Bulls at 5-seed: Alabama Crimson Tide
11-seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders at 6-seed: Texas A&M Aggies
10-seed: Penn State Nittany Lions at 7-seed: Georgia Bulldogs
9-seed: Indiana Hoosiers at 8-seed: Ole Miss Rebels
4-seed (bye): Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
3-seed (bye): Oregon Ducks (Sugar Bowl)
2-seed (bye): Miami Hurricanes (Orange Bowl)
1-seed (bye): Ohio State Buckeyes (Rose Bowl)
Teams Projected to Finish Below 6-6 and Miss a Bowl Game
I am projecting the following teams to miss a bowl game for the 2025-2026 season: Northwestern, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers and Wisconsin.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 31
Michigan Wolverines vs. LSU Tigers
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (vs. Big 12) – December 26
Michigan State Spartans vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Las Vegas Bowl (vs. former PAC-12) – December 31
USC Trojans vs. Utah Utes
Holiday Bowl (vs. ACC) – January 2
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Louisville Cardinals
Alamo Bowl (vs. Big 12)
Washington Huskies vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Music City Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 30
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Missouri Tigers
Pinstripe Bowl (vs. ACC) – December 27
Maryland vs. Duke Blue Devils
Reliaquest Bowl (vs. SEC) – December 31
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
GameAbove Sports Bowl (vs. MAC) – December 26
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Ohio Bobcats