Before I get into the Iowa stuff, I have to address what I knew was going to happen in the college football community writ large if IU beat Illinois like they did Nebraska last year.
After being told for the entire week leading up to the Nebraska game in ’24 how good Nebraska was by “very smart people” who kept saying that this would be a “real test” for Indiana, they instantly flipped once IU put belt to ass on the field.
It was deja vu again this week.
Almost like clockwork, the refrain again became “well, Illinois sucked” and the goalposts were put on wheels and rolled further and further back into friendly, “this wasn’t a good win, actually” territory like a piece of field artillery being moved off the line so that it can fire from a safe position.
As moronic as this should sound to everyone, I can’t help but wonder if IU would have been better served to have won say, 31-21 or even 38-21, pulling away late so as to avoid this nonsense.
IU’s dismantling of a consensus top 10 team by *too many* points gave the ESPN pundits, the SEC fluffers and fans paying for blue checks to feel important online all the ammo they needed to reload and discount a beat down just like they did in ’24 after IU’s 56-7 dismantling of Nebraska…”Well, aktuuallllllly, see, Illinois was terrible” or “it’s ILLINOIS, come on, no one thought they were a REAL top 10 team”.
I don’t think Curt Cignetti, the IU staff/team or it’s fans want validation…I just think they don’t want to be gas lit the second a game ends by a bunch of people with a narrative to push.
In my season prediction, I picked IU to beat Illinois and lose this weeks game at Kinnick Stadium vs Iowa. The reason I did isn’t just because of the 2021 game haunting me, it’s that, in HC Curt Cignetti‘s own words this week (paraphrasing), “Iowa does not beat themselves…”
Here’s what has changed for me going into this one. I think Iowa showed they can score points. They’ve put up nearly 33 points per game against their FBS opponents. But my biggest question was can IU’s defense be up to the task as they were time and again last season of shutting down offenses that can grind you down?
Before the season started, I thought the Illinois game would be a shootout but a win. I thought this game would be a defensive battle where Iowa and their *elite* OL would give IU’s smaller, more athletic defensive front issues as the game went on.
Before I go on…Let’s get into my picks
IU at Iowa — 330PM ET / 230PM CT — Peacock
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 3-3
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 28-17
Continuing where I left off above, regardless of how good Iowa’s OL is…and they are elite (I’ll show a tweet later on that), I just don’t think Iowa’s defense is going to be able to stop IU’s offense enough for their offense to score enough points to cover, let alone win.
SP+ has this a 30-21 game in favor of IU with a 72% chance to win while ESPN’s FPI gives IU a 78.4% win probability.
Here’s the thing, I just don’t think IU will be kicking many field goals, regardless of how their red zone running has been perceived thus far. And just hammering the IU red zone “struggles” point home, IU is 25/28 scoring in the red zone (89% – 58th nationally)…Not ideal. But IU has scored 22 TD’s in those 28 tries (78%), tied for 21st nationally. IU also has had the most red zone chances of anyone in the country. When you get more bites at the apple, you score more points…who knew?
I think IU scores TD’s in this game, despite how good Iowa’s defense is perceived (they’ve been mediocre thus far which we’ll get into in a bit).
The weather, as of this writing, looks incredible for September 27th in Iowa…81° and sunny.
So for this week, I’m taking IU to cover at -7 but I don’t think Iowa’s offense is going to get to the 21 points needed to hit the over, so I’m taking the under.
When IU is on offense:
Despite all the incredible stats that HC Curt Cignetti, OC Mike Shanahan and the rest of their offensive staff have put up, I’m still the most surprised by their average 3rd down distance. IU hasn’t been hitting as many explosive plays as they’d like but if you’re average is just 4.27 yards in 3rd down distance (#1 nationally), you’re making life much, much easier for yourselves.
Contrast that with what Iowa has done defensively on average opponent 3rd down distance at over 7 yards (75th) and we could see another game where IU is on schedule over and over.
And, contrary to what Iowa typically has been on defense, they’ve been pretty fine but unspectacular thus far facing two high major teams, a bad G5 school and an FCS school. They haven’t faced anything like Fernando Mendoza, Omar Cooper, Roman Hemby and co. to date.
In their two high major games (Iowa State and Rutgers), Iowa surrendered 464 passing yards but just one TD through the air. Despite Rutgers inability to move the ball on the ground against Iowa last Friday, they still had 4 TD’s on the ground.
Again, neither of those teams are anywhere near as good or efficient on the ground or through the air.
I do expect Iowa to try to take one thing away from IU. The good new for IU is they’re really good at running and passing. We saw against Illinois after a couple punts to start, IU realized they could use the RPO game to freeze the Illinois LB’s and just carved them up over and over again.
But the most impressive thing from that game wasn’t Mendoza and the passing attack to me. It was IU’s rushing attack. IU has run for 300+ on all four of their opponents. But Illinois, prior to facing IU, had given up just 84 carries for 222 yards (2.64 ypc) in 3 games, before giving up 49 carries for 312 to IU. Similarly, Iowa has given an up an impressive 108 carries for just 243 yards (2.25 ypc) and 5 TD’s on the ground…
Can IU make them look as silly as Illinois? I’m not sure it will be that drastic by any means, but I do think they will be able to run better than both Iowa State and Rutgers. In the Rutgers game specifically, Iowa ran press man, 1 on 1 on the outside and was beaten soundly over and over. They did that to stop the run. Will they run the same thing against IU? If they do, I expect a big day by Mendoza even if that comes at the expense of the run.
Led by LB Karsen Sharar and his 12 stops (tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense), all 11 Iowa defenders fly to the ball. IU is going to need the new trio of Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black and Khobie Martin to pound this Iowa defense 37th rated run defense by PFF to keep them honest to open up the passing game and slow down the Iowa pass rush.
Speaking of pass rush, Iowa’s pass rush has graded out as the 14th best per PFF and has generated 61 pressures this season and they have 10 sacks in 4 games (tied for 27th nationally) However, IU is the 3rd best pass blocking unit by PFF. What gives here? Well, PFF has Iowa as just the 74th grade coverage unit, led by Zach Lutmer (75.3) and Koen Entringer (70.9) who both grade a bit above average in coverage.
These guys can be thrown on if IU’s OL can give them time. I think the difference here is that Mendoza can move in the pocket and extend plays like Athan Kaliakmanis did last week against them for Rutgers when he threw for 330 yards (and for the record, Kaliakmanis has been *very* good this year both by eye test and PFF). Maybe we don’t see the huge passing numbers we have of late, but I think IU has success through the air and if they do, the usual suspects on the outside will need to lead the way (Cooper, Elijah Sarratt and EJ Williams).
I expect IU to be able to move the ball in this game and am very interested to see how Iowa attempts to defend a team that has so far…looked indefensible.
When IU is on defense:
This is a typical Iowa team that’s built to run first. QB Mark Gronowski is a big bodied QB (6’2, 235) that played four productive season at South Dakota State throwing for over 10,000 yards, 93 TD’s to just 20 INT’s. Oh, and he isn’t a statue. He’s not the fastest guy but he has 1910 career rushing yards and 43 rushing TD’s (!!).
That said, I don’t think he’s seen a team that attacks with fast, explosive athletes all over the field like IU. But he’s going to have a bunch of help. Iowa’s OL is the best in the country so far and it’s not even close. I think the guys below are propping up the PFF grade to #10 overall because they’re pretty middling in basically every other category…but when you have an OL with these grades, it might not matter…
So how and where does IU have success? Well, Gronowski doesn’t really have a big arm. He has two “big time throws” and three “turnover worth plays” per PFF. His receivers also have 8 drops and, while I haven’t watched much of their games outside of Iowa State and Rutgers, Gronowski doesn’t throw the most catchable ball. IU’s defense should be able to keep everything in front of them.
I suspect that IU will run a lot of three LB sets with Rolijah Hardy, Isaiah Jones and Aidan Fisher on the field at the same time in order to slow down the Iowa running attack and contain Gronowski when he decides to move.
I loved how IU played Luke Altmyer last week. They would bring pressure and drop a DL or LB to spy him. IU’s pass rush was getting home, but even when it didn’t, Altmyer had no where to go on scrambles. I expect a similar tactic to be deployed again.
Curt Cignetti called out his safety room for a couple of blown coverages in that Illinois game but Luke Altmyer is a flat out better passer than Gronowski. Altmyer made IU pay for one mistake but I’m not sure Gronowski, unless it’s another flat out blown coverage, is really going to be able to hurt IU’s DB’s deep if that happens again. He’s attempted just 7 passes beyond 20 yards in 4 games and completed just 3 of them. His aDOT (average depth of target) is just 7.2 (compared to Fernando Mendoza’s aDOT of 9.5, which includes his short passing masterpiece against Illinois). He’s a game manager that wins with his legs, short passes and not turning the ball over.
Last bit, and maybe the most important point on Gronowski: he’s been absolutely atrocious under pressure thus far. He ranks 124th out of 145 total qualifiers in PFF grade (35.5) when under pressure with a putrid 3.5 yards per attempt. Problem is, he’s only been under pressure 33% of the time thanks to that elite pass protection.
But neither he, nor his OL, have faced arguably the best DL in the nation thus far, led by Mikail Kamara, Mario Landino, and Tyrique Tucker. Those three are all in the *top 30 overall* among all DL in overall grade per PFF (out of 1104 total qualifiers). And that doesn’t even include guys like Hosea Wheeler (78.9 PFF overall grade – 112th), Stephen Daley (78.6 PFF – 118th) and Kellan Wyatt (74.1 PFF – 213th). IU’s DL will be *by far* the best test of this Iowa OL yet.
The bottom line to me is this: if IU can get pressure on Gronowski, I almost don’t think it matters what Iowa looks like on the ground. I don’t think they can win this game without Gronowski having a brilliant game through the air unless IU turns the ball over on numerous occasions.
Iowa has 5 RB’s with more than 14 attempts because of injuries and all have been pretty good with those attempts. As a team they’ve run for 802 yards at 4.7 ypc to go along with 10 TD’s. That total includes Gronowski who can, and will, run when needed.
Kirk Ferentz announced this week that leading rusher Jaziun Patterson is out for this game which is a good thing for IU. However, number one back Kamari Moulton was back from his injury in week one last week and was pretty effective against Rutgers (14 carries for 69 yards (4.9 ypc) and a TD. I expect Moulton to get the bulk of the carriers with Xavier Williams (from Schererville, IN) sprinkled in. That said, no matter who’s carrying the ball, Iowa’s OL is good enough to open holes. IU’s front 7 needs to be gap disciplined or they will get beat in the running game.
The RB’s are all weapons in the passing game as well which is a great way to alleviate pressure, when it does come, on Gronowski. I think IU will be ready for the dump offs.
To me, this game is going to come down to Mark Gronowski. Can the Illinois native do something he hadn’t shown he was capable of this year until facing a bad Rutgers defense last week? Can he facilitate enough scoring drives to keep up with an elite IU offense?
If he is, he’s going to need WR’s Jacob Hill, Seth Anderson and co. play the games of their lives in he passing game to keep up Iowa in it. The receiving corps has been credited with 8 drops thus far and that simply cannot happen against IU if they want to stay in the game.
I really think that the game plan for Iowa will be simple: They win when they can stay on schedule. They’re second in the nation, just behind IU’s offense, in average 3rd down distance. IU needs to force them to get behind the sticks with havoc plays and into obvious passing situations. They’re not going to score with IU. Therefore, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Iowa runs Gronowski a lot (along with the RB’s) to try to limit possessions. IU must disrupt that to win this game like I think they can (by covering).
Still, IU’s rushing defense just handled a pretty good rushing offense in Illinois so it’s hard for me to see them not punting numerous times in this game.
Special Teams:
I mention Iowa’s special teams because their punt and kick returner Kaden Wetjen has been one of the best in the country. He’s a true weapon with multiple TD’s already. That means IU P Quinn Warren is going to need to kick away from him and KOS Brendan Franke needs to keep pounding it out of the end zone. Players like Wetjen can change a game and IU does not want that in this spot.
Because I’m superstitious even though I know it’s stupid, I’m signing off the same way I did last week.
In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti: Go IU! Go IU! Go IU! Go IU!
#PackTheRock