The Reactionary Take on Illinois

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Kaelon Black (8) runs past Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Mac Resetich (0) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images Belt to ass. That's the best way I can describe what took place on Saturday night in front of a national NBC audience and raucous, record crowd at Memorial Stadium as IU dominated in all facets. (via ESPN) With IU's 63-10 beat down of former top 10 team Illinois, Indiana jumped up another 10 spots to number 6 in ESPN's FPI. ESPN's model gives Indiana's projected win total of *over* 10 wins. IU still has three very tough road games, including next week at Kinnick for Iowa while also having to travel to Oregon (#1) and PSU (#10), both teams in the top 10 in the same metric. Even the AP writers saw fit to move IU from #19 to #11, an 8 spot jump...Typically, I'd be great with that, but that also comes on the heals of Tennessee moving up 7 spots from #22 to #15 for blowing out East Tennessee State a couple weeks ago. It is what it is but "Brand Bias" still seems the name of the game for the writers. But what a huge win for Indiana. It cannot be understated just how much a win like this means to the University writ large. Normie college football fans notice when you win big football games and IU has a coach in Curt Cignetti that knows how to channel that into support of his team but also keep his team focused on the task at hand which is a road game at Iowa. I think that's the most exciting part of this era. We have a coach that talks the talk and walks the walk. He never seems rattled by the moment and, in his own words, "stalks the sidelines looking for complacency". He won't allow his team to get too high or too low. No matter what happened on a previous play, you flush it and move onto the next. I sometimes struggle, after 20 years of fandom, from getting constantly kicked in the groin just when things start to look up. I have to remind myself that it's alright to feel confident in what you've seen and what the numbers say. I knew IU was going to win this game after looking at it and my confidence only waned because...I'm an IU football fan. (via Yahoo!) IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 28-23 Final Score: 63-10 — IU and the OVER Season Betting Record: 3-3 I thought IU would win and cover and I had a feeling the but I didn't think Illinois' defense would collapse like they did. As a bettor, that's frustrating...As a fan of IU, I didn't give a rats you know what. We take wins however we can get them and I'll take going 1-1 this week 100 times out of 100. Just had to add some of the general stats up here before I dive into the minutiae. These just highlight how much of a beat down this was. Indiana held the ball for 39:42 to Illinois' 20:18. Indiana had 31 first downs to Illinois' 9 (!!). Indiana had just 2 penalties for 10 yards to Illinois' 4 for 23...a very clean game for IU. Indiana was 8/11 (73%) on 3rd down to just 1/10 (10%) for Illinois. Indiana points for and against by quarter: 1st - 14-7 / 2nd - 21-3 / 3rd - 14-0 / 4th - 14-0 This game was pure domination in every facet so lets dive into the rest...I'm going to kind of jump around here as I look at different performances. Fernando Mendoza Let's dive right in with the new Heisman trophy front runner via the sports books at +900 (depending on where you're looking). I got him for +3500 a couple weeks back for a couple bucks and it's looking like I'm a moron for waiting until after Kennesaw. Mendoza was absolutely surgical...again. He followed up a 19/20 (95%) for 270 yards (13.5 ypa) and 5 TD's in a half of football vs an FCS team with...21/23 (91%) for 267 yards (11.6 ypa) and 5 TD's vs the #9 team in the country. He has 0 INT's in that stretch...none. People need to remember that he did this in basically 4.5 quarters as he was pulled at halftime of ISU and in the 3rd quarter against Illinois. That means that in the past ~4.5 quarters, Mendoza is an absurd 40/44 (91%) for 537 yards (12.2 ypa!!) with 10 TD's and 0 INT's. Before we get into some of the advanced stuff that I wanted to touch on, I think the most impressive thing about Saturday, to me, for Mendoza was his ability to go to 2nd reads or make the right decision on RPO's. He's growing before everyone's eyes and it's so much fun to watch. IU RPO'd Illinois to death and, even without watching, you can tell by just looking at one stat: aDOT (average depth of target). Mendoza's currently tied for 55th overall in aDOT on the season at 9.5 with guys like Josh Hoover, Cade Klubnik and Connor Wiegman (among others), but, in this game, he was just 6.4 aDOT. Why? Because Illinois seemed so worried about the run that they would leave the middle of the field open just behind the stepping up LB's that Mendoza just picked them apart. Mendoza finished 13/13 for 159 yards (12.1 ypa) and 2 TD's from 0-9 yards down the field. He hit his guys short and let his play makers make plays. I would say there was one play, a roll out to his left where he was looking for Omar Cooper on a 3rd down and then awkwardly ran the ball to barely just before the sticks that was one of his "bad reads". Ironically, IU sent out the punt team, Illinois then called timeout, and IU sent back out the offense, got the 1st down and went right down the field for a tone setting 14-7 lead that IU never relinquished. Mendoza took two sacks in this one, doubling his season total but he finished 4/5 (80.0) for 53 yards (10.6 ypa) and 1 TD when under pressure so he made the right decisions to eat the ball a couple times and then was basically flawless when he did get pressured. The one incompletion was a pass barely out of the reach of Omar Cooper who almost made an amazing one handed catch on an awesome throw by Mendoza off his back foot with pressure in his face. Mendoza is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Completion % on the season at 83.2%. Per PFF, the PFF "Adjusted Completion Percentage" accounts for factors that hurt the passer's completion percentage but don't help show how accurate they are. It accounts for things like drops, spikes, batted balls, throwaways, etc. and is a new stat I like to to look at to get a true sense of how a QB is throwing. Mendoza is completing passes at an *elite* level. Mendoza's command of the offense four weeks into the season is something to behold and he keeps getting better each week. We saw this with Kurtis Rourke, but the arm talent for Mendoza is on a different level, and I love Kurtis Rourke so that isn't a knock on him. I'm so happy he's my QB. DL Indiana caused 21 pressures on 46 snaps. That's a comical 46% pressure rate. 10 of those pressures came from DT's Mario Landino and Tyrique Tucker. Neither were blockable by the Illinois OL. It's a terrific development for Bryant Haines and co. and his use of spying Luke Altmyer and disguising who was coming on blitzes was brilliant. On the season, Tucker (86.4) and Landino (86.3) are 29th and 30th overall in PFF defensive grade out of 1105 total DL qualifiers. That doesn't even count how good Hosea Wheeler has been too. He may not be putting up the numbers of his fellow iDL but he's 124th in PFF grade for all DL at 77.8 which is the 89th percentile. I tweeted this out but from watching all these games, there seems to be a concerted effort by IU's opponents to slide their OL further outside to deal with Mikail Kamara, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley. Once again, the outside guys numbers don't jump off the page but without their 7 combined pressures, Wheeler, Landino and Tucker aren't eating like they did. The DL was also instrumental in totally shutting down Illinois' rushing attack. With the 7 sacks, Illinois had just 20 carries for 2 (!!) yards. 2 friggin' yards! Even if you get rid of the sack yardage, IU still made it a laugher...Illinois had 13 carries for 49 yards (3.8 ypc) with just one miss tackle forced. If IU touched you, you were going down. Once again, I am not worried about Mikail Kamara. I cannot overstate that. He's one of the top DL in college football by my eyes and PFF, it's just not showing up in the counting stats...Patience. Special Teams D'Angelo Ponds is not only and All American CB, he's a special teams ace. He grades out 2nd in the nation by PFF in special teams grade. His block, return and score to open the game set the tone and ignited the crowd. Once again, Brendan Franke was kicking the ball like 75 yards out of the end zone. It's a luxury that may get lost in all of this. IU has the 4th graded special teams unit in the nation and Franke is the #1 graded KOS. He's allowed just one to be returned. Receivers Only 5 receivers caught a pass from Mendoza. Normally, I'd like to have more guys get a taste but IU didn't need to. The game got out of hand at the half and they proceeded to run it down Illinois' throats. It's become abundantly clear that the trio of Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper and EJ Williams is going to be a problem for opposing teams moving forward. They combined for 18 catches on 21 targets for 187 yards (8.9 ypc) and 4 TD's. This is why I was so excited to get EJ Williams back and healthy. He's an athlete on a different level and while he's not putting up the counting stats the other two are, he has fully bought in and deserves an assist for his blocking of basically two Illinois players on Cooper's screen pass TD early in the game. IU also ran a wrinkle off of the WR screen they always ran for Ke'Shawn Williams last year with TE Riley Nowakowski that he took 43 yards to the house for his lone TD. It's chess, not checkers for Curt Cignetti, Mike Shanahan and the offensive staff. Put something on tape last year, wait four games to use it but run it with a TE instead of a slot WR, get a TD. Just brilliant. I'm going to talk about the run game soon but games like Saturday are why you get Roman Hemby. He was punishing defenders on the ground but he also caught two passes for 37 yards. He's amazing when he's in space and we saw that in that game. Isaiah Jones "Bones" Jones was everywhere at the start of the game. He finished with 4 tackles, all 4 being what PFF classifies as Stops (tackles that constitute a "failure" for the offense), 2 TFL's and one sack in 18 defensive snaps. He also graded out second on the team in PFF defensive grade with an 82.7. Not much else here other than that he was awesome and a big reason why the defense got off the field early. His play last weekend is a testament to a kid's work ethic. He also is someone who's been in the program since the Tom Allen era. He stuck it out and is playing a huge role again in his redshirt junior season. OL I have a lot to write so this will be a quick shout out. Brilliant work again. There was a bust by the interior that led to a sack early but they were very good in both run and pass blocking. Drew Evans, Carter Smith and Kahlil Benson rank 1st, 17th and 71st out of 628 OL with 150 or more snaps in pass blocking. They have put on a clinic and did so again in this one. While Pat Coogan (68.2 overall) and Bray Lynch (66.9 overall) haven't gotten the PFF grades the others have, I still think they've been better than said PFF numbers suggest. I watch the games twice and it's just hard for me to watch what I have and still have both of those guys in the "just above average" category. Coogan has been great at identifying protections and Lynch has been a steady force allowing just 4 pressures in 4 games. It's a testament to how well they've all played as a unit that 4 pressures leads the team. Running Backs With the loss of Lee Beebe, IU faces a similar situation to last year. While Beebe is out for the year, last year, when Kaelon Black went out early, he did come back but never really looked healthy and IU relied pretty heavily on Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison for the stretch run. This year, Roman Hemby and Black have another guy announcing his arrival on the scene in Khobie Martin. Martin cut up Indiana State last week in the second half but that was an FCS team. What would he do, if anything, against Illinois? This week Martin had 12 carries for 107 yards (8.9 ypc) and 2 TD's. That's his second straight 100 yard game and he's now grading out as the 5th best RB by PFF. He has 7 missed tackles forced and 8 runs of 10+ in just 25 carries this season. And he *looks* the part. This doesn't seem like a fluke. The kid has flashed tremendous balance and lateral quickness to go along with breakaway speed at 6'0, 208. Black and Hemby are tremendous but the ascension of Martin is a big deal given the loss of Lee Beebe. Iowa should be a much tougher test for this group this Saturday. Secondary Outside of one blown coverage by Ponds that went for 59 yards that PFF somehow credits to Amare Ferrell, IU's secondary, with the help of the front seven, suffocated Luke Altmyer and the Illinois receivers. Besides the busted play, IU's secondary allowed 10 catches on 16 targets for 73 yards. You're taking that all day, especially against a QB like Altmyer and the weapons he has. Louis Moore was once again flying around the field and it cannot be understated how important winning his eligibility case with the NCAA is. IU's safety room is extremely thin. We know IU DC Bryant Haines loves to play his starters a lot of snaps. Moore, who was briefly injured, played 44 of 46 snaps. Amare Ferrell never came off the field. Devan Boykin played 31 of 46 as IU interchanged him with LB's. So, if you lose Moore from that safety room, IU could be in a world of hurt because no one else really even gets reps. Something for us to (nervously) keep an eye on. Lastly, IU had two dropped pick 6's in this one that both looked like walk in TD's. Have to make those plays moving forward because you're not always going to be up by a significant margin. I'll be back later in the week with an Iowa preview and betting thoughts.

The Reactionary Take on Illinois

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