Numbers drive so much in today’s world and the sports world is no different. Now more than ever teams are hiring and building analytics teams to get every edge possible over their opponents. Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers ahead of the Indiana Hoosiers’ matchups each week, so be on the lookout for that!
Without further ado, let’s get into it:
#6 vs. #14
…Represents – no, not these teams’ AP rankings, but their rankings when it comes to Net EPA/Play (Expected Points Added per Play). This metric shows how much a team improves or hurts its chances of scoring (on average) each time they run a play. It is a great measuring stick for how strong a team is overall, and both of these teams fall right within the top 15 in the country.
Indiana is the 6th best team in the country by this metric while Illinois is the 14th best (per gameonpaper.com). This may play a factor as to why Indiana is favored by betting sites despite Illinois being ranked higher in the AP polls. This is why we dive deep into the numbers, folks!
0.6 Yards
…Represents the amount of extra push that Indiana’s offensive line gets on average (3.7 yards) compared to Illinois’ offensive line on average (3.1 yards) on rushing plays (per collegefootballdata.com). This puts the Hoosiers at 3rd best in the Big Ten by this metric, while Illinois lands at 11th best in the Big Ten. Hoosier Huddle’s TJ Inman spoke in depth about how Illinois’ lackluster offensive line could present an opportunity for IU defensive linemen and certainly is an x-factor as we approach Saturday’s game.
3rd vs. 88th
…Represents the rankings on Pro Football Focus (PFF) when measuring pass blocking grades. Indiana’s offensive line unit comes in at 3rd in the country, while Illinois grades out at 88th in the country. In the above metric, we looked at run blocking, but this metric solely focuses on pass blocking. In both instances, Illinois’ offensive line grades out poorly while Indiana’s offensive line boasts very strong numbers.
Games like these are won in the trenches and, on paper, Indiana has the better offensive line of the two teams. Anything can happen of course – Hoosiers fans know that better than most – but these metrics bode well for Indiana.
6th
…Represents where top Illinois wide receiver Hank Beatty lands on PFF’s wide receiver rankings in the entire country. Beatty is truly a game breaker whenever he’s on the field, and he is on the field a LOT. Beatty catches passes, but is also a star in the return game on special teams. If IU is to win this game, shutting down Beatty will be a top priority. Expect Beatty to see a lot of D’Angelo Ponds and maybe even a few sneaky double coverages. He is by far the Illini’s biggest threat in the passing game.
14th and 16th
…Represents Illinois’ and Indiana’s rankings on PFF’s Power Rankings page, respectively. Illinois has a 26% chance to make the college football playoff while Indiana has a 24% chance to make the college football playoff. No doubt, the future numbers hinge heavily on Saturday’s game. Whoever wins likely knocks the other team out of a college football playoff spot – unless of course the losing team goes on a big run and wins unexpected games, of course – but this is a massive game nonetheless for the future of the season.
Game Information
Indiana kicks off against Illinois on Saturday, September 20 at 7:30 PM EST! The game will be shown on NBC and Peacock for those watching at home. Stay locked in with Hoosier Huddle for all things Indiana football and Indiana sports – all season long.