I decided that I wasn’t going to really get into the Indiana State game because that was just such a beating that it’s hard to take a ton away from it.
That said, I have to shout out a couple guys where I’ll give some thoughts overall on their play in the ISU game and some more macro thoughts:
Omar Cooper
Cooper played the role of Waffle House against ISU. He could have had 300+ yards and 6 TD’s had he been left in the game but instead finished with 10 catches for 207 yards and 4 TD’s, tying James Hardy’s record for TD’s in a game for IU.
Cooper has now played 79% of his snaps in the slot, a position I thought he was natural for in the off season, where he’s still finding a way to make catches down the field (12.7 aDOT — average depth of target) and use his running back like 6’0, 204 frame to run away (and through…4 missed tackles forced).
Cooper, Elijah Sarratt and EJ Williams have really formed a very good trio of WR for IU so far and it will be interesting to see how they’re defended moving forward. Do teams double one or even two of them? Either way, it’s a great problem to have if you’re IU.
Lee Beebe / Khobie Martin
I have shown love for Lee Beebe multiple times here before and losing him for the year to a non contact knee injury in a game you’re up 50+ is very frustrating. That said, he is, for all intents and purposes, RB3.
I thought Beebe brought something to the RB room that IU was sorely missing: the ability to run through people and create miss tackles. It’s a brutal loss going into a game with an Illinois defense that’s given up the 13th fewest rushing yards and zero rushing TD’s on the young season. Beebe was a thumper and lets hope he comes back healthy next year.
That said, I was very impressed by redshirt freshman Khobie Martin. He looked like a different player than his true freshman season. He hit the holes hard and with purpose while still being nimble enough to put defenders on skates with a couple of incredible spin moves. Not something you typically see from a kid who’s 6’0, 208. In 13 total carriers (11 against ISU), Martin has an elite 5.64 YCO/A (yards after contact per attempt). The competition caveat applies but he showed me something on Friday night that I wasn’t sure he had in him.
Do we see Martin move into the third spot behind Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black? Or do they move to a two back rotation like they did last year with Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton when Black went down? My guess is the latter rather than the former but time will tell.
Mikail Kamara
After recording 4 pressures, zero tackles and one PBU against, ISU, I’ve seen a bunch of hand wringing over the production of Kamara in the first three games and maybe I’m out here on an island, but I’m not worried one bit. So what if he’s not going to get 20 sacks?
I try to use PFF to confirm what I’ve watched on the field and I think Kamara is a case where I buy what PFF is selling.
Here are some of the numbers for Kamara, all leading IU:
- PFF overall grade at 88.4, 22nd overall among DL in the nation
- PFF pass rushing grade at 87.5, 27th overall among DL in the nation
- Leads IU and is 10th in the nation in win rate at 27.1% (PFF defines win rate as a percentage of “wins” vs Blocking on non-penalty Pass Rush Snaps)
- Leads an IU defense that’s only played 150 snaps total in 3 games with 7 pressures
Again, maybe he doesn’t reach those lofty preseason expectations he set for himself and others set for him, but he’s been damn good this year…it just hasn’t translated into counting stats that people often see so far in ’25.
I have a distinct feeling that it’s coming.
Macro Non Conference Thoughts
Overall, I thought IU got better with each non conference game. IU’s advanced rush defense stats are still very skewed by the two rushes for 153 yards by Old Dominion QB Colton Joseph…who, I must mention, just went into Blacksburg and dog walked Virginia Tech so bad that they fired coach Brent Pry.
Perhaps beating ODU by 13 may have actually been a good non conference win after all?
The defensive stats are further skewed by IU only being on the field for an average of 50 snaps per game…For contrast, IU’s offense has taken a whopping 229 snaps in three games (76.3 snaps per game) and I’m not really sure IU is even going fast. They’re typically huddling after every play.
That just puts into perspective how little IU’s defense has actually been on the field because they’re so good at getting OFF it.
Outside of those two runs and seven explosive pass plays against Kennesaw, I’m not sure you could have really asked for much more from the defense.
Offensively, I thought IU got better every game. Would I liked them to have beat ODU by more? Sure, but that was game one. Again, the competition decreased each week but IU looked very crisp the last two times out there and I’m feeling very confident in just about everything I’ve seen from QB Fernando Mendoza, the OL, the WR and the RB’s (outside of the Beebe injury).
Mendoza can really spin it and has shown, almost to a fault if you watched HC Curt Cignetti chew him out up nearly 40 for not handing off on an RPO and taking a hit, that he’s a willing and fairly athletic runner. He’s PFF’s 7th graded passer in the nation thus far, has yet to throw a pick and has just one (1) of what PFF describes as a Turnover Worthy Play, for a TWP rate of just 1.1%, tied for 25th nationally.
I didn’t mention the TE’s above because, while I love what Riley Nowakowski, Holden Staes and James Bomba have given the team, I still think there is more that IU hasn’t shown with them. I think that’s more of an IU holding things back than a “they haven’t hit their stride” type of situation.
I think the TE room is really versatile. You essentially have an H back, Swiss army knife in Nowakowski, a true pass catcher in Staes and a dominant run blocker Bomba. I’m excited to see more from this group when it will be needed against the Illinois’, Iowa’s and the rest of the conference slate.
IU vs Illinois — 730PM ET / 630PM CT — NBC
IU Reactionary Betting Record: 2-2
IU Reactionary Prediction: IU 28-23
I still think IU wins this game despite the 10 spot difference in the teams ranking per the dumb AP voters and Vegas clearly agrees. It’s generally agreed that teams on the road, if they’re deemed to be even in talent, etc., are spotted 3 points…but IU opened -4.5, basically saying that on a neutral field, #19 IU would be a 1.5 point favorite over the #9 team in the nation.
Why?
Because Vegas, who actually has a lot of skin in the game, uses advanced metrics to spit out their scores and then moves the lines based on how the betting comes in. A -4.5 spread isn’t actually that close either…it would be an *upset* for IU to lose this game per the people who know more about sports than basically anyone.
Bill Connolly’s SP+ model has this as a 4 point spread for IU and I agree. ESPN’s FPI gives IU a 62.8% chance to win this game which is very odd because if you listen to their pundits, they seem to trash IU at every chance they get.
The weather looks like it should be perfect, as of this writing, and the crowd is going to be rocking. This isn’t like Illinois’ road win over Duke. This game has been sold out since the summer and was the first game sold out all season. IU and their fans are ready and will make their presence felt.
For this game, I’m taking IU -4.5 but going UNDER 52.5. I think this is a close game but IU has too much fire power in the end.
IU Offense
I typically like to look at the analytics before doing my preview to see how each team has performed on both sides of the ball.
Illinois has, as expected, has been very good to date (Ranked 16th overall Net EPA/Play). Net EPA per play is the sum of offensive EPA per play and defensive EPA per play.
Thing is, while Illinois has been good, IU has been better. The higher the number, the more you’re adding expected points and the better you are. As you can see above, IU is 9th nationally thus far, while Illinois is 16th.
I know Illinois beat Duke on the road, who may or may not be better than ODU (juries still out, to be honest), but Duke also had some egregious turnovers on their own. Duke out gained Illinois. Duke had less penalties than Illinois. Duke was better on 3rd down than Illinois and Illinois rushed for a putrid 2.9 ypc…42 carries.
Had Duke not lost four fumbles, I think the outcome may have been different.
That isn’t taking anything away from Illinois at all. They won the game and won it handily on the road against a Power 4 team. I’m just not sure we can definitively say that Duke is a good football team.
Regardless, IU is going to need to bring their A game. A bit surprisingly, Illinois’ completely new defensive front has been very good thus far against the run. Going into the year, I thought Illinois’ secondary might be the best in the conference, and it still might, but their DL has been very good. Illinois has a very good rotation on the DL in their 3-3-5 or 3-4 defense. Guys to watch for Illinois up front are DE Alec Bryant (brother of former IU player Lance Bryant), DT Tomiwa Durojaiye, DT Angelo McCullom, DT James Thompson Jr., DT Pat Farrell and LB Gabe Jacas.
IU is going to have to find a way for Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to get some yards on the ground in the face of that tough, 13th ranked run defense in yards per game. I don’t think Illinois’ rush defense is anywhere close to what Michigan, OSU or ND were last year, but I hope IU can establish the run early. It doesn’t have to be the massive chunk plays we’ve been seeing, but just getting the pressure off the passing game would be a massive win for IU.
If having Drew Evans back is the catalyst for a lot of the OL play in the passing game, having Kahlil Benson back has been the catalyst for the run game. Some people who write about IU were very nervous about his return to play RT but he won the job over Zen Michalski and has produced.
Benson is the 28th overall OL in offensive grade per PFF (80) and has been very solid in both run (40th overall — 77.6) and pass blocking (126th overall — 80.6).
Evans, Benson and co. will face a tall task in this one with the pressure that Illinois likes to bring and the athleticism their DL has. The good thing about this is that IU played a pretty good, athletic 3-3-5 base defense in ODU. It was IU’s first game but they still managed to put up points and would have had more without a couple drops.
The game, offensively, is probably going to come down to how Fernando Mendoza looks in the passing game. Can the 3rd graded pass blocking team (per PFF) in the nation give Mendoza and his receivers time…If they can, I think IU is going to make a lot of plays in the passing game. IU will rely on the elite WR trio of Omar Cooper, Elijah Sarratt and EJ Williams. They need to create space and the OL has to give Mendoza some time but I think this is still a part of the game in IU’s favor.
Outside of S Matthew Bailey, Illinois’ secondary has been very poor in pass coverage. They gave up 334 yards on 23/32 (68%) with 2/1 TD/INT to Darian Mensah. Some of that was in catch up mode and I like Mensah a lot but I think Mendoza is better.
Lastly, for IU’s offense, IU needs to continue to do what it’s done in the non con…IU is #1 in the nation in avg 3rd down distance with a comically small 3.65 yards. Illinois defense, who’s been fairly good overall this year has kind of struggled with an avg 3rd down distance against of 7.03 yards, 70th in the country. That is something IU needs to exploit. If IU can stay on schedule and get anywhere close to that 3.65 number against Illinois, I think they win.
IU Defense
IU’s 51st ranked run defense in EPA/Play will be tested by three proven backs for Illinois. IU has given up just 4.0 ypc and 346 yards this season on the ground. That comes with a massive caveat.
As mentioned above, 153 of the yards and both TD’s came from Colton Joseph on just two carries. You can’t get rid of those runs in the first game…but IU’s stats look a lot different with those taken out. Taking out those two runs gives IU’s rush defense 193 yards against on 84 carriers for an absurd 2.30 ypc in three games.
Still, IU is going to have to deal with bruising RB Kadin Feagin. At 6’3, 255 (yes, you’re reading that right) he’s averaging just 4.4 ypc on 50 rushes. The issue is he’s very hard to bring down. He has 7 missed tackles forced, which isn’t a particularly great number given his usage, but it’s the body blows of tackling a guy his size that take a toll and he’s a monster in short yardage situations.
Feagin should get the bulk of the runs but Ca’Lil Valentine and Aidan Laughery are the home run hitters. Both average above 6.3 ypc on 40 attempts with 4 TD’s combined.
The problem that Illinois has had is that they have just two OL graded above average by PFF in run blocking OR pass blocking (LT JC Davis and LG Josh Gesky). Everyone else has been…mediocre to terrible.
Feagin is the up the middle guy when he’s in the game. Valentine has run to the tackle or around the tackle on 50% of his 25 touches. Laughery on 67% of his 15. It seems fairly predictable to me. If Illinois is running anywhere but left, they’re not going to have much success. If Feagin is in, they’re running between the tackles and likely between the guards in some fashion, and the opposite for the change of pace backs.
All that said, Illinois’ backfield is what makes defending QB Luke Altmyer so difficult. The key will be pressure. Altmyer ranks 78th in the nation in passing grade against pressure by PFF and he’s just as bad when blitzed. He’s also had just 2 total “big time throws” this season (2.2% BTT rate) and both were when he wasn’t blitzed and had a clean pocket.
If Mikail Kamara, Kellan Wyatt, Tyrique Tucker, Hosea Wheeler, Mario Landino and Stephen Daley can make him uncomfortable, I simply don’t see how he is effective enough to win this game. And I think they can.
To me, IU making Luke Altmyer uncomfortable in the pocket is the absolute key to victory. That requires IU’s secondary to play patiently and not give up huge chuck plays. Pressure up front will help, but they’re going to need to keep an eye on by far the best play maker for Illinois in slot WR Hank Beatty (78% of snaps in the slot). I’m not sure if All American CB D’Angelo Ponds shadows him, but it would seem like a good idea considering Beatty has 11 more catches and more than 200 yards more than any other receiver on their team.
So, to wrap, on both sides of the ball IU is going to have to limit penalties and stay on schedule.
On offense, they need to be able to run effectively, maybe not home runs, but not be so one dimensional that they can’t run at all. Fernando Mendoza will have to play another clean game and continue to make the correct decisions with the ball.
On defense, it’s all about creating pressure on Luke Altmyer. I don’t think Illinois can win this game unless he has a huge day passing and the way to hinder that is with pressure.
In the words of the great warrior poet Curt Cignetti: GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!
#PackTheRock