Man, it’s been a long time since I’ve been this optimistic…The last time was before the 2021 season and that optimism ended with me feeling like I got kicked in the nuts about 10x in the first five minutes of the game.
Since I consume a ton of media on IU, I’ve been hearing all this high praise of the team and how people think they’re going to win double digit games again. I think this is a much tougher schedule on paper than even last year. We knew teams like UCLA, Northwestern, MSU and Michigan were all breaking in new(-ish) coaches and the QB’s that were coming back on basically every team had major question marks.
Looking at this schedule, I certainly see a bunch of question marks but also some very tough games, so let’s just dive in…I’m going to do this like I did on my old blog and list the games and the outcome I expect and then dive into some of the “hinge” matchups and why I chose a win or loss.
Just so people know, BetMGM has IU’s O/U @ 8.5 while being +550 to make the CFP.
Game-by-Game Predictions
8/30 – IU vs Old Dominion – WIN
9/6 – IU vs Kennesaw State – WIN
9/12 – IU vs Indiana State – WIN
9/20 – IU vs Illinois – WIN
9/27 – IU @ Iowa – LOSS
10/11 – IU @ Oregon – LOSS
10/18 – IU vs Michigan State – WIN
10/25 – IU vs UCLA – WIN
11/1 – IU @ Maryland – WIN
11/8 – IU @ Penn State – LOSS
11/15 – IU vs Wisconsin – WIN
11/28 – IU @ Purdue – WIN
9-3 overall / 6-3 in B1G
Game-by-Game Details
Illinois: The three buy games are a great on ramp to play, what I think, is an overrated Illinois team at home.
Illinois is getting CFP buzz early but they’re schedule isn’t easy and, while I think they have a lot of good pieces returning, they lose a ton from what was a mediocre OL and DL last year and multiple WR’s that went to the NFL or exhausted eligibility.
I know that QB Luke Altmeyer and RB’s Aidan Laughery and Kadin Feagin return on offense, but the best group on their team is clearly the secondary. They are loaded. It’s going to be very important that IU be able to run the ball because Illinois has multiple players that will be pushing for All Conference honors like Xavier Scott, Kaleb Patterson and Matthew Bailey who all posted above average to very good PFF grades and counting stats.
That said, I like IU in this game. IU should have it rolling after their three tune up games and I expect IU to come out with a crazy intensity in front of a sell out crowd.
Iowa: Here’s where it’s tricky for me. I really think IU can win this game. IU has the better QB. IU should have a very good run defense again in ’25, which should match up with Iowa’s always good running game. Iowa also had All American Kaleb Johnson trade his Iowa black and gold for Pittsburgh Steelers black and gold. Iowa still doesn’t look to have a QB that can push the ball down the field.
Regardless of who is taking snaps at QB, though, Iowa perpetually rattles of 8+ win seasons with terrific OL play and suffocating defense.
I still can’t get the taste of that Michael Penix game out of my mouth from ’21 though…I just, I need to see IU win there before I actually pick them to win on the road @ Kinnick.
Oregon: Oregon had to replace Dillon Gabriel but with that Phil Knight, Nike money, they’re fielding an elite team at just about ever spot. It appears to be a battle between uber talented sophomore’s Dante Moore and Austin Novosad. Both are very good.
Despite having guys drafted from all parts of their team, they reloaded again and are very experienced on the OL. I just don’t think IU is going into Autzen and that environment and getting a win.
Michigan State, UCLA and Maryland: I’m lumping these three together because I think they’re more or less similar in my mind. IU stomped these teams last year and I don’t think a stomping will happen this year but I also think IU is just flat out better.
MSU should be better in year two with Jonathan Smith but even with QB Aidan Chiles and elite WR Nick Marsh returning, I think IU fans will be chomping at the bit and be loud as hell for their team after being on the road the previous two weeks.
Chiles got hurt in last years match up because his OL couldn’t stop IU’s DL…While he did make some great throwing on the run and using his legs, I think it’s a similar story again this year. IU’s defense comes to play.
UCLA should also be better this year and, with former IU QB coach Tino Sunseri calling plays, should have a good game plan for IU’s defense. That said, Even with the late addition of QB Nico Iamaleava, having to travel across country in what could be a cooler environment than a SoCal team is used to, I think will give them some problems. That, and IU’s very good defense and crowd.
Maryland seems like a mess. They basically lost everyone and this could be Mike Locksley‘s swan song. IU is better than Maryland and should win this game even on the road.
Penn State: With the return of Drew Allar, Penn State has all the hype this year. They’re pretty loaded again at every position but did lose all world DE Abdul Carter. I picked this as a loss, but I think IU has a better shot at winning this game than @ Oregon.
There’s just something about James Franklin and Drew Allar that doesn’t inspire much confidence…That and they’ll be coming off games @ Iowa and @ Ohio State. They could be very battered and bruised from the those two games.
If I was going to pick a real upset for IU, I think this would be it. That said, it’s a very tall order so I’m going to pick them to lose this one but reserve my right to say “I told you so” anyway if IU does win in Happy Valley.
Wisconsin: The Badgers might have the toughest schedule in the country. They’re no doubt hungry to bounce back but Luke Fickell has a ton of work to do before coming to Bloomington to even be looking to get bowl eligible. I think Wisconsin could be decent this year with former Maryland QB Billy Edwards under center, but if they struggle or he’s hurt, that team might just be looking to pack it in that late in the season.
Purdue: IU is going to win…that’s my analysis.
Final Analysis
Overall, it’s really hard for me to not pick 8-4. I could easily see a world where IU gets beaten by a worse team like MSU or UCLA or loses that tough game at home to Illinois.
I think its going to take like 3+ years of legit results for me to not have that PTSD reaction every time I look at IU’s schedule. I’m really going out of my comfort zone picking 9 wins…We’re talking about 9 frickin’ wins for Indiana University Football. What a time to be alive.
In the words of the great lyricist Curt Cignetti: GO IU! GO IU! GO IU!