IUFB Bold Predictions – Offense

Indiana's Lebron Bond (6) makes a catch during spring football practice on Thursday, April 10, 2025. Subscriber Content They're bold, people, so if they're way off, don't shoot the messenger... I had to do a bold predictions article for both sides of the ball this year because of how much of IU left from last years CFP team. Lots of guys returning, but also lots of guys potentially getting their first taste of major playing time. I'll be doing each position group and today we're focusing on offense. I will be using some advanced or PFF stats in these for positions like OL and DL because it's hard to quantify what they do without using a grade. You may say "DL?", well, this is where things like pressures and "stops" become more relevant in coming up with how efficient a player is being with their snaps. Prediction #1: As a team, IU will throw for 3700 yards Last year, IU threw for 3397 yards combined between the four QB's that saw snaps in the 13 games they played. If Fernando Mendoza stays healthy, I think they beat that number easily even with a tougher schedule. Prediction #2: Fernando Mendoza has 20 Big Time Throws (BTT) and an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 10.0 Mendoza had 12 BTT (2.9% of throws - 83rd out of 156 qualifiers) and an aDOT of 8.4 (117th) at Cal last season. Those were average to below average numbers but obviously don't take into account who he was throwing to and who was blocking for him. IU needs him to be better and I think he has better weapons everywhere and a much more cohesive OL that won't have him running for his life nearly as much. For reference, Kurtis Rourke had 19 BTT (5.6% of throws) and 10.4 aDOT in the same offense. Prediction #3: Kaelon Black has 750 yards rushing Roman Hemby is going to have a great season and is correctly getting a ton of hype but Kaelon Black is going to get a sneaky amount of carries. Last year, the trio of Justice Ellison (159 carries for 848 yards), Ty Son Lawton (141 for 668) and Kaelon Black (46 for 251) handled nearly 350 totes. While Black was banged up for portions of the season, the top two from last year are gone. I think the RB time share shakes out something like 45-35-20 (Hemby - Black - Lee Beebe) with IU is replacing 300 carries... Black was the best of the RB's at JMU before transferring and I expect him, if healthy, to prove that he's a very capable high major back this year. Given that he's going to have two other guys who've rushed for a bunch of yards in the room with him, 750 yards is nothing to sneeze at and would be more than Lawton had in '24 Prediction #4: Holden Staes will have 30 catches and 6 TD's TE Zach Horton played an insane 688 snaps last season and the next highest was James Bomba at 104 (83 run blocking). Bomba is back but he's a pure blocking TE (a good one at that). I expect Staes, if healthy, to play in the 500 range, which means he'll be on the field a lot. I think Staes is a next level type athlete. His blocking probably isn't close to Horton's from what we've seen of him but he should be a huge weapon in the passing game for Mendoza and this offense. Quickly back to Horton. Horton was so integral to what IU did because he could block and catch but he only caught 21 passes with 4 TD's last season. It certainly felt like more than that. Prediction #5: Charlie Becker gets 35 targets Becker burned his redshirt by being an elite special teams contributor and even had a TD in the demolition of WIU but we don't know much about how he looks as a WR. IU is replacing Miles Cross, Myles Price and Ke'Shawn Williams who combined for 138 targets in '24. Obviously, Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper are back but that's basically it in terms of production as EJ Williams, essentially, didn't play. Becker, a hold over from Tom Allen's last class, came to IU as a big bodied (6'4, 204) outside guy. I think he fills the Miles Cross role from last season. Cross played 57% of his snaps out wide, but moved into the slot (43%) to catch passes and help block. I think with his special teams prowess, Becker can block and catch and will be needed to do both this season. Between Becker, Makai Jackson and Jonathan Brady, I expect them all to play inside an out. Prediction #6: Carter Smith and Pat Coogan are All American's I think both of these guys are sure fire NFL picks and likely on day 1 or 2 (first three rounds). It's hard to quantify because it's essentially just vibes for who the OL are since there is no standardized way to evaluate other than sacks allowed. But Carter Smith finished 17th among ALL returning OL (523) per PFF in overall grade. Coogan finished 78th. They're elite and I hope they get the accolades they deserve this year. For what it's worth, Drew Evans, coming back from the Achilles injury and deemed "full go" by HC Curt Cignetti at B1G Media Day graded as the 119th overall OL returning and an 34th in pass blocking...No wonder why the OL looked so rough once he went out just before the Michigan game. Prediction #7: EJ Williams gets 35 targets If you've followed me for any length of time, you know I love me some EJ Williams. Once healthy and with Brendan Sorsby at QB, Williams went off the final four games of '23 averaging 5 catches and 62 yards. Last year, he caught both of his targets... The catch he made at Northwestern last year, I think, was just a taste of what he can do when healthy...and, by all accounts, he's healthy. IU is going to need new faces to step up and EJ is a guy who did it as a freshman with Trevor Lawrence...I think he'll do it again this year and finish 4th in targets on the team. Prediction #8: Lee Beebe, Jr. finishes top 20 in the nation in Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) Beebe was a beast at UAB and finished 24th overall among returners in YCO/A. The kid is a load to bring down and has a terrific base of power even if he doesn't have the home run speed. Will the jump in competition level bring that down? I don't think so. He runs hard and never really seems to take direct contact. That was something former IU RB Jordan Howard did very well. Long way to go for Beebe to be in the convo with Jordan Howard but more in terms of how he shakes off tackles. A lot of glancing blows and he's just too big to take down with an arm tackle. Either way, I don't think Beebe gets the close to load he did at UAB last year but I put this in here because I want people to be aware that I think he's a good power back with excellent receiving skills who, if he doesn't play a ton this year, is in line to be THE guy next year. DEEP Prediction: True freshman Davion Chandler gets 20 targets For perspective, as I said above, Zach Horton had 25 targets, so if you don't think my bold predictions are that bold enough, here's one... Chandler is a true freshman and typically Cignetti and co. aren't playing those types of guys. Lebron Bond has been, probably correctly, getting a ton of hype in the slot with only Jonathan Brady (technically) in front of him. I think Chandler can line up inside or out and has the quickness and big play ability to make things happen after the catch. He should see the field early in the buy games but I think he shows out and plays down the stretch too. Plus, as my guys Alec and Brad for Indiana at The Voice of College Football like to say...You don't get a single digit number unless you're a player...And Chandler is #4. Subscribe to get access Read more of this content when you subscribe today. Log in

IUFB Bold Predictions – Offense

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