A Little Background
The debate about a new College Football Playoff format (4-4-2-2-1-1) and possible expansion has been one of the raging arguments this off-season. The big battle is between what the Southeastern Conference (SEC) wants and what the Big Ten Conference wants. There is a December 1st deadline to come up with a format for the 2026 season and beyond. The SEC prefers a 5+11 model (5 Automatic Qualifiers plus 11 At-Large Bids). The Big Ten has talked at length about a 4-4-2-2-1-1 model (4 AQs from both the Big Ten and SEC, 2 AQs from both the Big XII and ACC, 1 G5 and 1 At-Large).
Without getting into the nitty gritty of finances and TV money, here is my opinion on the whole thing (and I am not a huge fan of any Playoff model, but it’s happening).
4-4-2-2-1-1 is the Best Option
The SEC and Big Ten get to control the debate. That was in the original CFP contract, so it should be no surprise they will get the majority of the teams in the field.
I chose this model because it is straightforward and you do not have to rely on a room full of people who may or may not watch the games. On top of that it removes the bias of preseason polls and metrics that are skewed by corporate entities.
The top four teams in the Big Ten make it, the top four in the SEC make it along with the top two teams in the ACC and Big XII, the best G5 school and an at-large which will probably be Notre Dame.
That’s not absurd. It puts an emphasis on conference games and raises the stakes of more late season games. That’s what people want, right?
Play-in Games?
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti discussed the idea of having play-in games for the top six teams in the conference. If there are four AQ’s from the Big Ten, that number needs to be eight. You cannot have a ‘Lucky Loser’ get in after a loss in a play in game. It defeats the point.
“the Big Ten has been consistent in its strong preference for a playoff
system that allocates spots based on conference standings and the results of play-in games. We want to better connect the regular season and the post-season. A critical goal of any post-season format, regardless of sport, is to keep as many teams alive as deep into the season as possible. We want more conference games to matter in November. Also, the playoff format should not function as a disincentive to schedule tough, nonconference games.” Petitti said.
The Big Ten actually, maybe accidentally, created a plan for this in the COVID season when the final week of there year was going to have teams play their counter part in a cross-division “champions weekend”. The blueprint is there, it just needs to be tweaked.
Potential Pitfalls
There are two major issues that stand out right away to me. First, the Big Ten plays nine conference games. Meaning that half the conference will play five home games while the other half plays four. That’s an inherit disadvantage for nine teams.
The solution is pretty straightforward, albeit, not simple.
The Big Ten either needs to move back to eight conference games or bump up to 10 games. This evens out that disadvantage. Moving to eight may create issues with tie breakers while 10 guarantees half the league takes another ‘L’. However, in the 4-4-2-2-1-1 that should not matter. It’s not based on national rankings, just conference standings.
The second barrier is what happens to the conference championship games. Yes, those games have decreased in meaning the last few years, but boy do they make money. Selling a 1 vs. 2 matchup in Indianapolis is much easier to sell to a national audience than trying to force a 1 vs. 8 play-in game. Can the Big Ten make as much or money having four games that weekend, instead of one?
Also, who is then determined Big Ten Champion. Is it automatically given to the top seed?
What if they lose? What if there are upsets? If the eighth seed knocks off the one seed are they out of the playoff? Does the eight get into the playoff? The stakes would be absolutely wild, but there are plenty of dangers.
Final Thoughts
I am not a fan of trying to turn college football into college basketball. They are not the same. March Madness is great and works for college basketball. It does not work for college football.
With that said college football doesn’t give a dang about what I think, so if this thing is going to move forward. Give me the 4-4-2-2-1-1. The Big Ten has to either move to eight or ten conference games and have the top-8 finishers in the conference play for CFP spots in play-in games on campus. 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5.
You cannot make everyone happy. I learned that from our awesome forums at Hoosier Huddle. However, you can keep the regular season meaningful and turbo charge Championship Weekend.
I would love to hear your comments below or in our forum.