Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)
In a move that has been expected for quite some time, the College Football Playoff Board of Managers formally voted on Tuesday to revise the format of the new 12-team event to a “5+7” model. The event will now include the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids. This revises the previously approved “6+6” model and was seen as necessary after the demolition of the PAC-12. Washington State president Kirk Schulz was the previous lone holdout and his switched vote allowed the approved unanimous vote at Tuesday’s meeting.
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This model begins with the 2024 season and the top four conference champions will receive a first-round bye while seeds 5, 6, 7 and 8 will host seeds 12, 11, 10 and 9 in on-campus first round games. The New Year’s Six bowls will host the quarterfinals and semifinals on a rotational basis.
Under this model, no conference champions automatically qualify for the field and there is no limit to the number of at-large bids any conference can earn. Given the current power structure of the sport, it would be a shock if the top four seeds did not consist of the champions of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 with the fifth conference champion likely coming from the Mountain West, Sun Belt, American Athletic Conference or Conference USA and being slotted into the 12-seed.
What Does This Mean for IU and the Big Ten?
Indiana’s win total for 2024 is 5.5. There is no individual outside of the IU locker room that believes the Hoosiers are going to be a legitimate contender for a playoff berth in 2024. Now, if Curt Cignetti gets IU rolling and things break the right way, they could be in the future. This format, if it remains in place past the next two seasons, does not cap the number of at-large bids a conference can get. It is expected that the Big Ten and SEC will gobble up most of the at-large spots. For instance, a hypothetical scenario for the 2024 playoff would be the following:
Top Four – Ohio State (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Utah (Big 12), Clemson (ACC)
Fifth Conference Champion – Liberty (12 seed and CUSA champion)
Seven At-Large Selections – Ole Miss (SEC), Texas (SEC), Oregon (Big Ten), Penn State (Big Ten), Notre Dame (Independent), Tennessee (SEC), Florida State (ACC)
Is there a season in the near future where Indiana finishes as the fourth-highest ranked Big Ten with a record of 9-3 and is in the mix for a playoff berth? That’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. The Big Ten will almost certainly get three to four teams into this expanded playoff each season. A future playoff format is being worked on by the CFP Management Committee is being worked on this week with meetings taking place in Dallas. Sources indicate leaders of the Big Ten and SEC are expected to push for a larger share of the revenue and perhaps additional guaranteed slots for their leagues. This would further widen the gap between the SEC and Big Ten and the rest of the sport.