2016 Season Preview: Oct. 15 Nebraska Cornhuskers
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Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)
Week Six: Nebraska Cornhuskers
Date and Time: Saturday, October 15, 2016 – 3:30 P.M.
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
TV: TBD
Cornhuskers at a Glance
Head Coach: Mike Riley
16th season as collegiate head coach, 2nd at Nebraska
Overall Record: 99-87
With Nebraska: 6-7 (3-5 in Big Ten)
Last Year: 6-7 (3-5)
Huskers Returning Leaders
Passing: Tommy Armstrong (3030 yards, 22 TDs/16 INTs plus 529 rushing yards)
Rushing: Terrell Newby (147 carries for 765 yards and 6 TDs)
Receiving: Jordan Westerkamp (66 catches for 926 yards and 7 TDs)
Defender: Nate Gerry (safety – 64 tackles, 4 INTs and 7 PBUs)
Preseason Predictions
Athlon: 2nd in Big Ten West
Lindy’s: 3rd in Big Ten West
Phil Steele: 2nd in Big Ten West
Sporting News: 3rd in Big Ten West
WHY THE HUSKERS WILL WIN
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not played the Indiana Hoosiers in football since 1978 (a 69-17 victory for Nebraska) and the Huskers’ “Big Red” fan base is well-known for filling opposing stadiums. It would not be a surprise to see a whole lot of corncob hats and bright red shirts fill up Memorial Stadium. In addition, this is the third game of a brutal opening Big Ten slate for IU as they take on Michigan State and Ohio State in the previous two weeks. The Hoosiers may be physically reeling a bit when the Huskers, who will be fresh off of a bye week (which comes right after hosting Illinois), roll into town. The “little things” look to be in Nebraska’s favor plus the Huskers placed a league-high four freshmen on the All-Big Ten Freshman Team. You may not buy into those peripheral issues as factors in a game so I’ll give you some on-field reasons to be concerned about this matchup.
First, Nebraska will bring one of the best (if not the best) offenses in the Big Ten to Bloomington. Tommy Armstrong is a bit mistake-prone but he’s an explosive player that will be in the middle of his second season in Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf’s offense. He’s the kind of dual-threat quarterback that gives defenses fits and he’ll be throwing to perhaps the best wide receivers corps in Nebraska history (94% of receiving yards return). Jordan Westerkamp leads this stellar group that also includes Brandon Reilly, Alonzo Moore, Stanley Morgan Jr. and the electric De’Mornay Pierson-El. Tight end Cethan Carter is poised to breakout as a star and Matt Snyder is a very good blocking tight end. In short, Nebraska has a plethora of weapons in the passing game and it would be very surprising to see IU’s secondary hold this attack to under 300 yards through the air. Nebraska’s running game wasn’t great in 2015 and Husker fans are certainly expecting more from a group of running backs that includes Terrell Newby, Devine Ozigbo and Mikale Wilbon. The offensive line is a mild concern because of youth but recruiting rankings indicate things should be okay up front. As of now, IU doesn’t look like a team that will be able to apply copious amounts of pressure to an opposing offensive line, particularly one that isn’t a disaster.
The defense for Nebraska is not near as threatening as its offense but a new defensive line coach (John Parrella) is garnering praise from observers and analysts and young players like Freedom Akinmoladum, Alex Davis and Sedrick King should help offset the loss of four defensive front seniors. The linebackers will be the strength of the defense thanks to the return of Josh Banderas, Dedrick Young, Michael Rose-Ivey and Chris Weber. Safety Nate Gerry is a returning senior and he was 2015’s leading tackler plus top corner Joshua Kalu is now a junior. The linebackers will be able to help a bit in pass coverage because the Huskers have a mobile group. Nebraska’s defense was 35th against the run in 2015 so IU’s greatest strength (it’s run game, may not overwhelm Nebraska’s front). I don’t think the secondary, or this defense as a whole, will be “good” but it should be adequate to provide some resistance against the Hoosiers. I think both offenses will expect to have a terrific days and anything less than 40 points will likely result in a loss.
WHY THE HOOSIERS WILL WIN
Nebraska will be well-rested after their bye week and IU will be coming off of back-to-back contests against Michigan State and the Ohio State Buckeyes. However, the Huskers are only 7-7 after a bye since 2010 so, in the recent past, the extra week of rest and preparation has made no difference for them. In addition, this is the 2016 Homecoming game (although Homecoming hasn’t brought success for the Hoosiers under Kevin Wilson) and IU fans may turn out and bring the noise against a “big name” opponent. At worst, the stuff outside the sidelines may prove to be a wash.
Turning our attention in between the lines, Nebraska has a terrific offense that is seemingly built to exploit past weaknesses of the Hoosiers. They have a dual-threat quarterback, a number of proven wide receivers with size and a capable running attack. However, Tommy Armstrong is mistake-prone and new defensive coordinator Tom Allen has spoken a lot about how aggressive he wants his defense to be in forcing “takeaways”. It’s conceivable the Hoosiers defense snags three or four takeaways, something that could absolutely swing the outcome in a shootout. It’s also conceivable that the 4-2-5 defensive alignment and the five-man secondary is able to more adequately cover the big targets like Jordan Westerkamp, Stanley Morgan Jr. and Cethan Carter than we’ve been subjected to in the past. Nebraska’s running game is decidedly average and their offensive line is inexperienced and potentially a weakness. Perhaps defensive line coach Mark Hagen and DC Tom Allen will be able to configure some blitz packages to take advantage of that susceptibility and frustrate Armstrong.
The biggest reason for optimism in this games comes from Nebraska’s pass defense. The Huskers were 81st in the S&P+ passing defense rankings and Richard Lagow should be comfortable in the offense by this time in the season. The Huskers lost talented safety Byerson Cockrell and defensive back Jonathan Rose. This defense surrendered 55 points to Purdue, 36 points to Miami and 30 to a poor Northwestern attack. There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about IU’s ability to put up a lot of points on the Huskers. Force a few takeaways against the mistake-prone Armstrong and find a way to dominate Nebraska’s rebuilt defensive line (replacing four starters) and the Hoosiers will notch a huge victory over “Big Red”.
FINAL ANALYSIS
This is one of the more interesting games on the 2016 slate. Nebraska is a big-time football program that hasn’t necessarily played like one in recent memory. They have a tremendously passionate fan base and I fully expect this game to be sold out, largely due to the presence of many traveling Husker fans that haven’t had a chance to watch their squad in Bloomington in decades. Both teams feature outstanding offenses (IU’s was better in 2015 but Nebraska returns more proven commodities for 2016) and suspect, at best, defenses (Nebraska’s was less shambolic in 2015 but IU returns more for 2016). In my opinion, this should be one of the more entertaining and exciting games of the 2016 B1G season and I think a couple of mistakes made by either side will swing things. Which team has to settle for a couple of field goals instead of punching in for six? Which team screws up a couple of third downs and is forced to punt? Which quarterback makes an ill-fated throw and throws an interception or two? With two explosive offenses, neither team can afford to come up empty on very many possessions. Nebraska will likely be favored by around a touchdown and it should be a really fun afternoon in Bloomington.